Weekly Editor's Picks (1107-1113)

郝方舟

Odaily资深作者

@OdailyChina

2026-11-14 10:20 (UTC+8)

This article is about 3785 words, reading the full article takes about 6 minutes

Quality in-depth analysis articles and a weekly roundup of top news.

AI Summary

Core Viewpoint: The crypto market came under notable pressure this week, with Bitcoin falling below $70,000 to a three-month low. On the macro front, US debt and inflation risks are heating up, while on the regulatory side, a Democratic investigation and the countdown to the GENIUS Act are closing in on two fronts. The industry is shifting from political tailwinds to bipartisan bargaining and compliance tests.
Key Elements:
1. Democratic Senator Blumenthal sent letters to Binance, Tether, WLFI, and the entity behind the TRUMP token, demanding investigation records be submitted by January 4, 2027. The probe touches on sanctions compliance, stablecoin lobbying, and the President's family token business.
2. The GENIUS Act takes effect on January 18, 2027. Among the top ten US dollar stablecoins by circulating supply, only USDC and PYUSD meet reserve structure requirements, together accounting for 26%, while 72% fail to comply (65% of which are issued offshore).
3. MSCI removed three treasury companies—Strategy, Metaplanet, and Upexi—effective November 30. Strategy faces potential passive selling pressure of roughly 13 million MSTR shares, worth $1.57 billion in market value.
4. The NYSE's 24/7 tokenized securities platform will use only Avalanche for settlement, but the announcement did not mention any role for AVAX in settlement, fees, or staking, limiting the token's value capture.
5. Vitalik Buterin noted that fee burning provides limited support for ETH valuation and that excessive burning could harm decentralization. He advocates shifting the ETH value narrative toward store of value while retaining EIP-1559.
6. Bitmine holds 6.07 million ETH, or 4.97% of total supply, approaching its 5% target. Its net buying from accumulation is about to pause, but price momentum in recent months has already been limited as the market priced it in ahead of time.
7. US October CPI came in above expectations across the board, hitting the threshold for a substantial rate hike mentioned by Waller. Fed's Logan said at least two more hikes are needed. Bitcoin lost the $70,000 level as institutions withdrew capital.

The information stream moves too fast, and in-depth analysis articles are easily drowned out by trending topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column pulls content with judgment value out of the flood of information, helping you filter out the noise, retain the insights, and spark inspiration.

Macro Landscape

Bridgewater Founder Ray Dalio: My Deep Reflections on the U.S. Midterm Election Results

The election results merely changed the specific people responsible for addressing problems, but they cannot change the objective realities facing the United States—its massive debt, extreme wealth disparity, great-power competition, and climate and technology challenges. With the temporary fiscal appropriations set to expire in December and the federal debt ceiling approaching in spring 2027, partisan polarization makes it difficult not only to close the deficit but may also undermine the credit foundation of U.S. Treasuries as the world's core collateral.

AI & Storage

Bank of America: Chip Stock Selloff May Bottom in Early 2027; Share Prices Typically Lead Fundamentals by 6-9 Months

The magnitude of this decline has already exceeded the historical average, but its duration is less than half the historical mean. Market concerns over slowing AI capital expenditure have led to indiscriminate selling of chip stocks.

This "indiscriminate selling" may run its course by early 2027. In past cycles, declines in the SOX index typically led actual semiconductor sales declines by 6-9 months, after which, once earnings expectations were fully digested, the index rebounded by an average of about 42%.

Up 8% After Earnings, Can CoreWeave Escape Musk's Doom Prophecy?

CoreWeave delivered its Q3 2026 earnings—a report that amounted to a "life-or-death test" for the entire neocloud sector. The strong numbers directly countered the "idle compute" narrative, but debt pressure remains enormous.

Prediction Markets

predict.fun Restarts TGE: Is There Still a Chance After the "Disastrous Opening"?

Policy and Stablecoins

Democrats Retake Congress: Is a Heavy Hand of Crypto Investigations About to Fall?

U.S. Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal sent a new round of letters to Binance, Tether, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), and Fight Fight Fight LLC (FFF), the entity behind the TRUMP token, requesting that the four companies voluntarily submit previously requested investigation records and information by January 4, 2027.

From exchange sanctions compliance to stablecoin companies' lobbying expenditures to the presidential family's token business, the Democratic investigation has touched upon multiple connections between the crypto industry and American politics. Under the new Congress, the crypto industry must both push for clearer rules and face stricter accountability.

Countdown to the GENIUS Act: Of the Top Ten USD Stablecoins, Only USDC and PYUSD Pass Muster

On January 18, 2027, the GENIUS Act officially takes effect. Under the act, "payment stablecoins" issued in the United States or offered to U.S. users must maintain full reserves in highly liquid assets—U.S. Treasuries with remaining maturities of no more than 93 days, overnight reverse repurchase agreements collateralized by Treasuries, bank deposits, and other qualifying assets.

But by circulation, of the ten largest USD stablecoins in the U.S., only two currently have reserve structures that match GENIUS requirements, accounting for 26% of total circulation. Another two are expected to qualify soon, accounting for 2%. The remaining 72% do not qualify: 65% are offshore-issued stablecoins, and 7% are crypto-collateralized.

CeFi & DeFi

DAT Hit Again: MSCI Removes Three Treasury Companies—How Long Can Debt-Financed Crypto Buying Last?

MSCI announced the results of its November 2026 index review, removing Strategy, Metaplanet, and SOL treasury company Upexi, with the related adjustments taking effect after the close on November 30.

The three treasury companies face passive rebalancing selling pressure. Among them, Strategy's potential selling pressure is the most closely watched. In its earlier consultation response, the company disclosed that funds tracking the MSCI Global Investable Market Index (GIMI) hold approximately 13 million MSTR shares, representing 3.1% of its basic share capital. At the November 10 closing price of $121.07, this stake is worth approximately $1.57 billion.

Whether debt-financed crypto buying can continue depends on how much return the accumulation generates for shareholders. If the company holds more and more crypto assets while the assets corresponding to each share do not increase, it will be difficult to get investors to buy into the next round of financing.

NYSE Uses Avalanche to Settle Tokenized Stocks, but AVAX May Not "Get a Piece of the Pie"

The NYSE's 24/7 tokenized securities trading platform will use only Avalanche to settle tokenized stocks, and it still needs regulatory approval before launching in Q4.

Neither Ava Labs' announcement nor the NYSE's statement mentioned any use of the AVAX token in settlement, fees, or staking. Under Avalanche's custom L1 mechanism, AVAX's direct revenue comes only from validator continuous fees. Settlement activity on the NYSE's custom chain does not fall within AVAX's capture scope.

Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guides

Hot Interaction Roundup | Flop Labs Testnet Prep; 42.space Launches Points System (November 13)

Ethereum and Scaling

Vitalik "Exposes" the Limits of Burning, ETH Value Narrative Shifts

Fee burning has limited support for valuation, and an excessive pursuit of burning may also harm the network's decentralization and anti-capture properties, whereas store-of-value better aligns with Ethereum's strengths in security, privacy, and stability.

EIP-1559 and its burning mechanism should still be retained. Ethereum should focus more on ETH's store-of-value properties.

When Bitmine Stops Buying, How Much Net Buying Pressure Will ETH Lose?

Bitmine's total holdings have officially climbed to 6,070,092 coins, worth approximately $13.6 billion, representing 4.97% of Ethereum's current total supply. According to official figures, this ratio has reached 99% of its strategic goal of "holding 5% of ETH's total supply."

Once the final 1% is purchased, Bitmine's ETH buying that has lasted for over a year will be put on pause.

On the numbers alone, the disappearance of this net buying pressure would have an enormous impact on ETH. But in reality, Bitmine's "aggressive accumulation phase" has long passed, and its actual pull on ETH's price in recent months has been very limited. During the volatility of recent months, the secondary market has in fact already adapted to and digested the days without Bitmine's net buying in advance.

Testing Employee Loyalty with "Meme Culture"? The Ethereum Foundation Really Stepped in It This Time

Former employee Nixo has taken the Ethereum Foundation, Vitalik, and others to federal court in Colorado. She alleges that she was fired by the Ethereum Foundation thirteen days after informing management in writing that she had cancer and twelve days after participating in organizing a "joint petition" among foundation employees. What also pushed this into the spotlight was a "seppuku license" that appeared in the foundation's mission statement—not all employees accepted the meme.

Beyond APY: Saying Goodbye to Black-Box Trust, Reassessing the Security Logic of ETH Staking

Multi-Ecosystem

Elysium Mainnet Launches Tonight: Which Issuance Platforms Are Worth Watching?

Security

Crypto RUG History Just Added Another Bold Stroke

The long-dormant DePIN project Puffpaw suddenly announced a token launch and airdrop. Not only did it deploy an extremely thin liquidity pool (roughly tens of thousands of dollars) on an on-chain DEX, but it also attached a linear unlock period of 156 weeks (about 3 years) to the airdrop. The team manipulated the token price through high control of the supply while simultaneously betting on its own FDV in prediction markets to complete the harvest. Polymarket has yet to settle, and the community keeps raising objections.

Weekly Hot Topics Crash Course

Nvidia's board launched an independent investigation; Jensen Huang admitted to an extramarital affair and wrote to employees to apologize;

Nvidia announced that CEO Jensen Huang has resigned, with CFO Colette Kress serving as interim CEO;

Further reading: "Who Can Officially Succeed Jensen Huang?", "Who Is Hunting Jensen Huang?", "Ousting Jensen Huang: Can Nvidia at $158 Really Be a "Buy the Dip" Opportunity?", "SemiAnalysis Report: Nvidia's Post-Huang Era".

Policy and Macro Markets

U.S. October CPI came in above expectations across the board, hitting the threshold for a significant rate hike mentioned by Waller;

U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal demanded that Binance, Tether, and others submit investigation records by January 4, 2027;

U.S. Department of Justice: Over $2.7 billion in stolen Binance assets have been frozen, of which over $1.2 billion has been approved for seizure;

Hong Kong has established a dedicated task force to provide answers and technical support for crypto asset reporting and tax department registration inquiries;

Views and Voices

Fed's Logan: The Fed needs at least two more rate hikes of 25 basis points each;

Trump expressed support for Jensen Huang continuing as Nvidia CEO;

Megaspeed responds to the Jensen Huang incident: hires a U.S. law firm to conduct a full GPU inventory and cooperate with BIS inspections;

Wall Street interprets Jensen Huang's resignation: the consensus is "no one can replace him," and the real crisis lies in the AI ecosystem's funding chain;

Goldman Sachs interprets hedge fund positioning: "capitulation-style liquidation," the largest losses since the pandemic;

Goldman Sachs: The 2027 U.S. stock bull market has one last rally left, but what follows will closely resemble the eve of the 2000 bubble burst;

Bloomberg: As the Trump dividend recedes, the crypto industry begins turning to bipartisan support to seek long-term development;

Bloomberg: Bitcoin falls below the $70,000 mark as inflation and regulatory pressure combine with institutional outflows;

Hong Hao discusses Bitcoin, gold, and AI: faith in gold will not change, and AI will most likely fall by another half;