美联储维持利率不变，美股三连涨！微软与谷歌为何走势分化？
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, and U.S. stocks rose for a third consecutive trading day. However, tech giants diverged after earnings releases: Microsoft gained in after-hours trading, while Google parent Alphabet fell sharply. The market's focus is shifting further from the rate decision itself toward corporate earnings, returns on AI investment, and cash flow performance.
On October 28, U.S. Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. Two dissenters favored a 25 basis point rate hike. The Fed also upgraded its assessment of economic activity and noted that inflation remains elevated.
According to BiyaPay market data, at the close of regular U.S. trading that day, the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,743.98; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.19% to 52,475.10; and the Nasdaq Composite rose about 0.27% to 26,549.85. The three major indexes posted gains for a third consecutive trading day, though the increases were relatively modest.
Rising indexes do not mean all tech stocks will strengthen in unison. While assessing the impact of rates on valuations, the market is also re-examining corporate earnings, AI capital expenditures, and cash flow performance. For investors focused on U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and digital assets, in addition to analyzing market conditions, they also need to consider trading channels, currency conversion, and deposit and withdrawal arrangements. Especially when switching between different markets, how funds are converted and how trading costs are calculated can also affect the actual investment experience.
As a global one-stop asset allocation platform, BiyaPay uses USDT as its core funding entry point, connecting services such as U.S. stock and Hong Kong stock trading and digital asset exchange. Users can, according to their own needs, convert USDT into USD or HKD and then use it for the corresponding stock trading; they can also participate in the digital asset trading supported by the platform and combine it with services such as cross-border remittances to arrange capital flows. For users who follow multiple markets at the same time, this integrated service helps reduce switching between different tools and makes trading, conversion, and cross-border fund arrangements more seamless.
Keeping rates unchanged does not mean an easing cycle has arrived
Rates remaining unchanged for now does not equal a decline in the cost of funds. Corporate financing, household credit, and stock valuations are still affected by the current level of interest rates.
If the market had already widely expected the Fed to keep rates steady, the direct impact when the decision was announced may have been limited. What is more worth watching is whether subsequent inflation, employment, and economic growth data will change policy expectations.
Two dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike at this meeting reflected differing judgments within the decision-making body regarding inflation risks. But this does not mean the Fed has decided to raise rates in December; subsequent action still depends on economic data and policy assessments.
Interest rate futures reflect market expectations at a specific point in time, not the Fed's commitment to future policy. Investors need to judge the rate path in light of meeting statements, economic data, and subsequent policy remarks, rather than inferring market trends from a single rate decision.
Why did Microsoft and Google diverge? The market is starting to compare cash flow
The earnings reactions of Microsoft and Alphabet reflect changes in the current investment logic for tech stocks: the market is not only focused on how fast AI businesses are growing, but also asking how much capital companies need to invest and whether those investments can generate sustained returns.
In Microsoft's fiscal quarter ended in September, Azure cloud revenue grew 48% year over year, and free cash flow reached about $18.6 billion, significantly above analyst expectations. Strong cloud growth and cash generation provided relatively clear performance support for the market. After the earnings release, Microsoft shares rose more than 3% in after-hours trading.
Alphabet faced a different test. The company's core search advertising business grew less than market expectations in the quarter, and although Google Cloud performed strongly, increased AI infrastructure investment also put pressure on cash flow. The company's free cash flow for the quarter was about negative $9.07 billion, and the stock fell nearly 10% in after-hours trading at one point.
This does not mean companies with positive free cash flow are necessarily worth buying, nor does it mean companies with negative cash flow necessarily lack investment value. The key is whether companies can justify current spending through future revenue, profit, and cash recovery.
Especially in an environment where interest rates remain relatively high, companies that rely on long-term returns to support valuations need to face stricter return tests. Competition in the AI industry is not only about technology and computing power, but is also gradually becoming a contest of capital efficiency and commercialization capability.
U.S. Treasury yields and valuations remain important variables for tech stocks
The Fed keeping rates unchanged does not mean Treasury yields across maturities will decline in tandem. Short-term yields are more susceptible to expectations for future policy meetings; long-term yields are also affected by factors such as inflation, economic growth, and term premiums.
For tech companies, long-term funding costs are especially important. Some AI projects require years of investment before they can generate returns at scale. If long-term yields remain high, investors may assess the present value of those future returns more cautiously.
But falling yields are not necessarily all good news. If the decline stems from easing inflation, stock valuations may find support; if it reflects a marked weakening of the economy, corporate earnings expectations may also be revised lower.
Therefore, when looking at tech stocks, one should not only watch whether the Fed adjusts rates, but also pay attention to the bond market's reaction and whether corporate earnings can support current valuations.
Gold and Bitcoin cannot be analyzed with the same logic either
Fed policy affects the dollar, bond yields, and market risk appetite, but the pricing mechanisms of gold and Bitcoin are not the same.
Gold does not generate interest, and changes in real interest rates affect the opportunity cost of holding it, but safe-haven demand, central bank gold purchases, and physical demand are equally important. Therefore, one cannot simply assume that if rates remain unchanged, gold will necessarily rise or fall.
Bitcoin's short-term performance may be affected by factors such as market liquidity, capital flows, leveraged positions, and risk appetite. Fed meetings may trigger short-term volatility, but do not necessarily determine subsequent trends.
For investors who follow stocks, gold, and digital assets at the same time, it is more valuable to analyze the performance of various assets and the drivers behind them, rather than judging where funds are flowing based solely on the rise or fall of one asset.
After the index gains, the market places more emphasis on earnings delivery
U.S. stocks' three-day rally shows the market still has some support; the after-hours divergence between Microsoft and Alphabet shows that investors are more carefully examining companies' earnings quality, cash flow, and returns on AI capital expenditures.
The Fed keeping rates unchanged reduced one source of uncertainty that evening, but did not solve companies' future earnings problems for them. Next, inflation and economic data will continue to affect rate expectations, and whether companies can turn technology investment into sustained revenue and cash flow will also affect performance differences among tech stocks.
For investors, what matters more than simply guessing the next rate decision is understanding the relationship between funding costs, corporate earnings, and valuations. In market volatility, paying attention to fundamentals and capital arrangements is more meaningful than chasing single-day gains and losses.
