US Stock Market Daily | Nasdaq Plummets 2.6%, Tech Stocks Fall Across the Board (October 23)

1. Headline Summary

1. MicroStrategy (MSTR) Adds Another 267 BTC, Total Holdings Reach 848,517 BTC — Purchased during October 12-18 at an average price of $82,900, costing approximately $22.1 million; during the same period, repurchased $193 million in STRC preferred stock, signaling a shift in capital allocation priorities toward shareholder returns.
2. **BlackRock IBIT Sees Single-Day Inflow of $665 Million, Bitcoin ETF Flows Reverse** — On October 20, IBIT's substantial net inflow reversed the prior week's net outflow trend, but Fidelity FBTC saw $83.63 million in net outflows and Grayscale GBTC lost $54.93 million, highlighting growing institutional divergence.
3. Fed's October 27-28 Meeting Approaches, Market Prices Over 80% Probability of Holding Rates Steady — The current federal funds rate target range is 3.75%-4.00%, with October rate hike probability at only about 15%; the December meeting is viewed as the final rate hike window of the year.
4. **Coinbase Stock Under Pressure, Q2 Revenue Down 17% YoY to $1.154 Billion** — COIN closed at $169.09 (-4.51%), weighed down by consecutive losses and weak crypto trading volumes, down over 53% from its 52-week high of $373.25.
5. Geopolitical Turmoil Persists: Russia-Ukraine Conflict Enters Fourth Year, Middle East Situation Unstable — The U.S. is advancing secondary tariff legislation on Russian oil and gas buyers, while Russia deepens energy cooperation with Iran to offset pressure; Red Sea shipping risks remain.

2. U.S. Stock Market and Macro Overview

Major Index Performance

Based on the latest available data (October 22 close):

• S&P 500: Closed at 7,663.43 on October 22, down 1.21%
• Nasdaq: Closed at 26,430.89 on October 22, down 2.6%
• Dow Jones: Closed at 52,867.98 on October 22, up 0.02%

Macro Data and Fed Developments

Federal Funds Rate: Current target range 3.75%-4.00% (effective since September 17, 2026)

• Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR): 3.88% (October 14-15 data) Source: MacroView
• The September FOMC meeting voted 12:0 to raise rates by 25 basis points, the first hike since July 2023 Source: SimianX

October Meeting Outlook:

• CME FedWatch data shows over 80% probability of holding rates steady in October, with rate hike probability at approximately 15%
• The December 8-9 meeting is viewed as the most critical rate hike observation window of the year, with the dot plot pointing to another 25bp hike to 4.00%-4.25% by year-end

U.S. Treasury Yields:

• 10-year Treasury yield: Recently fluctuating in the 5.00%-5.31% range, hitting highs not seen since 2007 Source: VT Markets
• 2-year Treasury yield: Approximately 4.73%-4.75% Source: Admiral Markets

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):

• Recently oscillating in the 101.7-102.1 range, rebounding nearly 4% from September lows Source: VT Markets

3. Crypto-Related U.S. Equities (Crypto-Equity)

DAT Company Developments

Strategy (MSTR) — The World's Largest Bitcoin Holding Company

Holdings Update:

• Total holdings: 848,517 BTC (as of October 18)
• Total cost: Approximately $63.8-64.0 billion, average purchase price of about $75,416/BTC (including fees) Source: SSDUO
• Current market value: At a BTC price of $83,000, holdings are worth approximately $70.4 billion

Capital Operations:

• Purchased $22.1 million in BTC during October 12-18, but repurchased $193.1 million in STRC preferred stock during the same period (8.7x the BTC purchase amount)
• USD reserves fell to $5.52 billion, indicating capital is being redirected toward shareholder returns Source: 120BTC
• Board authorized expansion of digital credit securities repurchase program from $2 billion to $3 billion

mNAV Analysis:

• mNAV (the multiple of stock price relative to net asset value of holdings) is a key metric for valuing DAT companies
• When mNAV>1, companies can create arbitrage opportunities by issuing shares to fund BTC purchases; when mNAV<1, repurchasing preferred stock is more attractive
• MSTR's current mNAV is near 1, reflecting the market's repricing of its leveraged Bitcoin strategy

Other DAT Company Developments

Based on search results, no other U.S. companies have announced new Bitcoin purchases or DAT transformation plans in October. The industry is entering a consolidation phase:

• Galaxy Digital Forecast: At least 5 DAT companies will fail or be acquired in 2026 due to operational issues Source: 120BTC
• Industry Executive View: MoreMarkets CEO Altan Tutar stated that as market competition intensifies, most Bitcoin treasury companies will disappear, with altcoin-focused DAT companies being the first to exit

Crypto Equity Watchlist Additions: No new DAT companies announced BTC purchases or transformations this period.

Broad Crypto-Related U.S. Equities

(1) Exchanges and Financial Platforms

Coinbase (COIN):

• Stock price $169.09 (-4.51%), Q2 revenue $1.154 billion (-17.34% YoY), net loss of $359 million
• Strategic pivot: Launching U.S. stock/ETF trading, prediction markets, tokenized assets, single-stock perpetual contracts
• Challenges: Three consecutive quarters of missing Wall Street expectations, weak crypto trading volumes

Robinhood (HOOD):

• Stock price $96.52 (-2.38%), Q2 revenue $1.308 billion (+32.25% YoY), net income of $585 million (+51.55%)
• Highlights: Prediction market revenue $156 million (+300% YoY), options revenue $342 million (+29%)
• Concerns: Q1 crypto revenue $134 million (-47% YoY), crypto trading volume $2.4 billion (-48%)

(2) Spot ETF Fund Flows

October Bitcoin ETF Fund Flow Overview:

According to TFTC data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $292.5M in the first two trading days of October (October 1-2):

• October 2: Single-day net inflow of $189.8M (largest single-day inflow this month)
• October 1: Net inflow of $102.7M
• Average daily net inflow: $146.3M Source: TFTC

Dramatic Reversal on October 20:

• BlackRock IBIT: Single-day net inflow of $665 million, completely reversing the prior week's net outflow trend
• Fidelity FBTC: Net outflow of $83.63 million
• Grayscale GBTC: Net outflow of $54.93 million

BlackRock's New Move:

• Filed for "iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF" (ticker PBIT) on October 20
• The actively managed fund uses options related to IBIT to provide downside protection while retaining limited upside gains Source: JRJ

Historical Comparison:

• In the last week of September (ending September 25), U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded weekly net inflows of $2.4 billion, the largest weekly inflow since October 2025 Source: KuCoin
• BlackRock IBIT alone captured $1.2 billion in inflows that week, demonstrating extremely high institutional capital concentration

(3) Stablecoins and Payments

Circle and Payment Giant Developments:

• No major on-chain announcements from Circle, Visa, Mastercard, or PayPal were found in October searches
• Coinbase-backed OUSD stablecoin has launched on Ethereum, Solana, and Base Source: Coingape

(4) Mining Companies and Hashrate Firms

MARA, RIOT, CIFR and Other Miners:

• No major announcements from the above mining companies were found in October searches
• Industry context: Some miners are pivoting to AI/HPC, but specific progress awaits earnings season disclosures

Regulatory and Accounting Drivers

SEC Developments:

• Coinbase filed two SEC registration applications on September 1 to launch single-stock perpetual contracts, indicating a gradually clarifying regulatory environment Source: CoinUnited

Accounting Standards Impact:

• Fair Value Accounting allows companies to record crypto assets at fair value, with unrealized gains/losses included in current period profit
• MSTR recorded $21 billion in digital asset unrealized gains in Q3, returning to profitability for the first time in four quarters, directly benefiting from this standard Source: Sina Finance

Same-Day Stock-Crypto Correlation Signals:

• BTC price is highly positively correlated with MSTR stock price, but MSTR exhibits more volatility due to leverage effects
• IBIT saw a massive $665 million net inflow on October 20, but MSTR stock did not rally in tandem, reflecting the market's greater focus on the company's capital operations (preferred stock repurchases) rather than pure Bitcoin exposure

4. Geopolitical Impact

Major Conflicts and Situations

Russia-Ukraine Conflict:

• Entering its fourth year, Russian forces hold ground initiative but face escalating Ukrainian long-range strikes (large-scale drone attack on Moscow in August 2026)
• Ceasefire prospects remain dim, with "managed competition" dominating in the near term

Middle East Situation:

• The U.S. shifted from military strikes to economic and alliance-building efforts against Iran on August 24 Source: ZeroFox
• Saudi Arabia is considering expanding Red Sea oil pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, reducing geopolitical risk impact on energy supply Source: Conference Board
• Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed an attack on a Saudi Aramco refinery, Red Sea shipping risks persist

Sanctions and Countermeasures:

• The U.S. is advancing secondary tariff legislation on Russian oil and gas buyers (Senate began review in July 2026)
• Russia is deepening energy/military cooperation with Iran to offset pressure

Transmission Pathways to U.S. Stocks and Crypto Markets

Impact on U.S. Stocks:

• Energy Sector: Middle East tensions push oil prices higher (WTI crude $99.02, Brent crude $109.86), benefiting energy stocks but increasing inflationary pressure Source: Poly Trends
• Defense: Geopolitical conflicts continue to support defense spending, benefiting Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and others
• Supply Chain Risk: Red Sea shipping disruptions may drive up transportation costs, affecting global trade

Impact on Crypto Markets:

• Safe-Haven Properties: BTC as "digital gold" may attract safe-haven capital inflows amid geopolitical uncertainty
• Energy Costs: Rising oil prices increase mining costs, pressuring miner profit margins
• Sanctions Evasion: Russia, Iran, and other countries may increase use of cryptocurrencies for cross-border settlements, but scale is limited and faces regulatory crackdowns

Uncertainties:

• The outcome of the November 2026 APEC summit will determine whether U.S.-China relations can substantially de-escalate
• If Ukraine negotiations collapse or the Middle East situation spirals out of control, confrontation could escalate again, triggering severe market volatility

5. Upcoming Focus Areas

Macroeconomic Data

• Fed October FOMC Meeting: Convening October 27-28, decision announced at 2:00 PM ET on October 28
• Market expectation: Over 80% probability of holding rates steady, approximately 15% probability of a hike
• Key focus: Whether statement language hints at a December hike, dot plot update (no SEP this time)

Earnings Season

• Crypto-Related Companies: Watch for Q3 earnings release dates for MSTR, COIN, HOOD, etc