Bitcoin adjustment signal confirmed, HYPE long-short divergence intensifies | Special Analysis

This week, the daily-level A-wave rebound of Bitcoin may have peaked on July 21, with the market transitioning into a B-wave adjustment phase. Meanwhile, HYPE is at a critical battle for the key resistance zone of $60 to $63.5, and the path forward remains unclear. The following provides a multi-timeframe structural review and trading strategy for BTC and HYPE this week, along with a market verification of last week's short-term trades, for your reference.

Core Trading Views for This Week:

• BTC Multi-timeframe Trend Structure Analysis (Detailed in Part 1)

• BTC Price Forecast and Mid/Short-term Trading Strategies for This Week (Detailed in Part 2)

• HYPE Hourly Trend Structure Analysis (Detailed in Part 3)

• HYPE Price Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategies for This Week (Detailed in Part 4)

Market Verification of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views:

• BTC Price Forecast Verification: Last week's article clearly stated that Bitcoin had a high probability of ending the first leg (Wave A) of the current daily-level rebound near $67,300. Our forecast was precisely validated by the market.

• BTC Short-term Trade Results: Bitcoin executed one short-term short trade last week (1x leverage), successfully achieving a profit of approximately 1.70%. (Detailed in Part 5)

• HYPE Price Forecast Verification: Last week's article clearly stated that if the price rebounded at the beginning of the week, it could be seen as a retest confirmation after breaking below the key support zone ($62 to $63.5). Currently, the market movement is highly consistent with our judgment.

1. Bitcoin Multi-timeframe Trend Structure Analysis

1. Bitcoin Daily Level Trend Structure Analysis: (Based on market analysis after May 6)

Figure 1 Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart

① As shown in (Figure 1): Since the adjustment starting from the May 6 high of $82,850, the daily chart has shown a four-segment adjustment structure: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), (3-4).

② From a daily structure perspective: The first leg (Wave A) rebound starting from the July 1 low of $57,820 may have ended on July 21, reaching a rebound height of $66,955 during this period.

③ If the Wave A rebound has ended, the current market is operating in the Wave B adjustment phase. After the Wave B adjustment ends (provided the adjustment low does not break below $57,820), there may be a potential Wave C rebound, which could challenge the resistance zone near $67,300 again.

2. In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Hourly Trend Structure: (Using the 4-hour chart as the analysis timeframe)

Figure 2 Bitcoin _4-hour K-line Chart

① Within the 4-hour timeframe, the rebound from the July 1 low (Endpoint 44, approx. $57,820) to July 21 (Endpoint 51, approx. $66,955) can be clearly divided into seven segments (44-45) to (50-51) in structure. Among these, segments (45-46), (46-47), (47-48), (48-49), and (49-50) overlap, forming a "five-segment" consolidation zone E.

② Based on structural analysis: Comparing the entry segment (44-45) of consolidation E with the exit segment (50-51), we can clearly determine that the rebound momentum of the exit segment is significantly weaker than the entry segment, forming a momentum divergence between the two. Therefore, the rebound starting from "Endpoint 44" may have ended at "Endpoint 51", making the subsequent probability of an adjustment significant.

③ The adjustment from "Endpoint 51" has so far comprised two segments: (51-52) and (52-53). The current price action can be seen as a retest confirmation phase after the price broke below $65,700.

2. Bitcoin Price Forecast and Trading Strategies for This Week

1. BTC Price Forecast for This Week:

Core Views for This Week:

① Focus on the test results of the price retesting the $65,700 area.

② Focus on the support strength when the price tests the $60,950 to $61,500 zone.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $65,700 to $67,300 area (Previous key resistance zone)

• Second Resistance Zone: $69,500 to $71,000 area (Previous key resistance zone)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Near $63,700 (Previous key support level)

• Second Support Level: $60,950 to $61,500 area (Previous key support level)

• Third Support Level: Near $57,820 (Previous key support level)

4. Trading Strategies for This Week (Excluding unexpected news impact)

① Medium-term Strategy:

Figure 3 Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 3), the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming the market structure has shifted to a bearish dominant pattern. According to the established trading plan: when the price rebounds near $67,000 and shows signs of stagnation, synchronously observing the top signal from our proprietary quantitative model, we have strictly executed the strategy, increasing medium-term short positions to approximately 40%.

② Short-term Strategy: Utilize 30% of the position, set stop-loss levels, and seek "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using the 30-minute/60-minute chart as the operating timeframe).

③ In short-term trading, to dynamically respond to complex market developments, we have prepared two specific operation plans (A/B) in advance.

Plan A: Test short-selling in the strong resistance zone.

• Entry: If the price rebounds to the $65,700 to $67,300 zone and meets resistance, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, establish a short position of approximately 30%.

• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When the price adjusts near a key support level, combined with signals from the quantitative model, gradually close the position to take profits.

Plan B: Light long position in the strong support zone.

• Entry: If the price adjusts to above the previous low of $57,820 and shows signs of stabilization, combined with a bottom signal from the quantitative model, establish a long position of approximately 30%.

• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When the price rebounds near a key resistance level, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.

3. HYPE Hourly Trend Structure Analysis

Figure 4 HYPE_4-hour K-line Chart

1. As shown in (Figure 4), HYPE's adjustment from the July 7 high of $72.97 to the present (i.e., Endpoint 61 to Endpoint 71) can be subdivided into a ten-segment adjustment structure on the 4-hour chart. Among these, segments 62-63, 63-64, 64-65, 65-66, and 66-67 overlap, forming a "five-segment" downward consolidation zone.

2. The market is currently in the (70-71) rebound segment. Subsequently, two scenarios are possible:

Scenario One: $56.47 is the end of the adjustment, initiating a recovery rally. The adjustment starting from July 7 ($72.97) ended on July 24 ($56.47). The current rebound is a technical recovery phase against that downward move.

Scenario Two: Build a "downward consolidation zone" and then continue lower. A new "downward consolidation zone" is currently being formed, after which the market will continue its original downtrend, breaking below the previous low of $56.47 to seek further support.

3. In summary, close attention should be paid in the short term to the test results of the $60 to $63.5 resistance zone and the defense strength of the support near $56.47. The outcome of the battle at these two price levels will be the key basis for determining which path the market will take.

4. HYPE Price Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategies for This Week

1. HYPE Price Forecast for This Week:

① Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Level: $60 to $63.5 zone

• Second Resistance Level: $68 to $69.5 zone

• Third Resistance Level: Near $72.97

② Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Near $56.47;

• Second Support Level: $52 to $55 zone;

Core Views for This Week: Closely monitor the test results of the price against the $60 to $63.5 resistance zone and the support strength near $56.47.

2. Short-term Trading Strategy for HYPE This Week: For short-term trading this week: If the price rebounds to the $60 to $63.5 zone and shows clear adjustment signals, investors are advised to consider entering a small short position, strictly adhering to stop-loss discipline, with position size controlled within 20%.

5. Bitcoin Short-term Trade Performance Review

Strictly following our operation plan and trading signals from our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," we executed one short-term trade (short) last week, achieving a total trading profit of approximately 1.70%.

1. Short-term Trade Record: (See Table 1) Bitcoin Short-term Trade Details Summary:

Table 1

2. Short-term Trade Review: (See Figure 5)

• Entry Strategy:

a. When the price rebounded near $67,000, stagnation signals appeared, and the K-line formed a "top divergence" pattern;

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong top warning signal (white dot + green dot), followed by the signal band (blue) breaking below the skyline (green), issuing a bearish signal;

This coincided with an adjustment signal from the "Momentum Quantitative Model." Therefore, we established a 30% short position at $66,319.

• Exit Strategy:

a. When the price dropped near $64,500, stabilization signals emerged, and the K-line formed a "bottom divergence" pattern;

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggered consecutive bottom warning signals (red dots), followed by the signal band (orange-yellow) breaking above the horizon (magenta), forming a bottoming resonance signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model";

Therefore, we closed the entire position near $65,192.

• Summary: This trade successfully achieved a profit of approximately 1.70%.

3. Short-term Trade Illustration

Figure 5 BTC_60-min K-line Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

6. Special Reminders:​​

1. When Opening a Position: Immediately set an initial stop-loss.
2. When Profit Reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (breakeven point) to ensure principal safety.
3. When Profit Reaches 2%​​: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous Tracking: For every additional 1% profit, the stop-loss level should also be moved by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Financial markets change rapidly. All market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, serve solely as personal trading logs, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Markets are risky; invest carefully. Do not make decisions based solely on this.