Bitcoin's consolidation fails to change the bearish trend, HYPE tests critical support multiple times | Analyst's Take
- Core View: This week's market validated last week's forecast of an oversold rebound and HYPE facing resistance at $72.97. BTC has entered a short-term consolidation range, making the rebound height crucial. HYPE's upward structure has been damaged, with the rebound height determining the subsequent direction. The mid-term strategy has shifted to bearish, while the short-term approach focuses on going long at support levels and shorting at resistance levels.
- Key Elements:
- Bitcoin's daily chart has formed a "descending consolidation" structure. The market is likely to enter an extended phase of sideways consolidation. Key short-term levels to watch are the $64,700 resistance and the $61,500 support.
- The 4-hour rebound for Bitcoin shows a three-wave pattern. The current wave (46-47) is showing bearish divergence signals. If the pullback stabilizes near "endpoint 46," a further rebound towards the $65,700 to $67,300 region is possible.
- The mid-term strategy for Bitcoin is bearish. Current short positions should be kept at 20%. If the price rebounds to the $65,700 to $67,300 area and shows top-side signals, positions can be increased to up to 50%. Three trading plans (A, B, C) have been formulated for short-term operations.
- On the 4-hour timeframe, HYPE completed a seven-wave upward structure from $58.5 to $72.97. The current adjustment wave (61-62) has broken below the previous low, damaging the upward structure. The maximum decline recorded was 9.39%.
- Short-term operations for HYPE: If the rebound fails to break above $72.97, establish short positions on rallies (position size ≤30%). If it breaks above, maintain a neutral stance (no position), as it approaches the strong resistance zone near its all-time high of $76.94.
- Risk management emphasizes dynamic stop-losses: set a stop-loss immediately upon opening a position. Once a 1% profit is achieved, move the stop-loss to breakeven. Subsequently, for every additional 1% increase in profit, the stop-loss should be raised by 1% to lock in gains.
In last week's report, based on the daily-level trend structure of Bitcoin, we explicitly stated the core judgment that "the oversold rebound phase has begun, and the height of the rebound will determine the subsequent market direction." We also issued a warning for HYPE, noting a "significant probability of adjustment near Point 61 ($72.97)." This week's market movement has further validated the effectiveness of the aforementioned analytical framework: Bitcoin completed a multi-segment rebound as expected and touched key resistance levels, while HYPE encountered resistance and retreated near $72.97 as anticipated, with a maximum decline of 9.39%.
Building on this, this week's report will provide a detailed breakdown of the price action paths and specific trading strategies for BTC and HYPE, based on the latest 4-hour and daily-level trend structures, as well as signals from our proprietary quantitative models.
Core Trading Views Summary for This Week:
• Multi-cycle trend structure analysis of BTC (detailed in Part 1)
• BTC price forecast for this week and medium/short-term trading strategies (detailed in Part 2)
• Hourly-level trend structure analysis of HYPE (detailed in Part 3)
• HYPE price forecast for this week and short-term trading strategies (detailed in Part 4)
Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views: Market Validation
• BTC Price Forecast Validation: Last week's article clearly stated that Bitcoin has entered the daily-level oversold rebound phase, emphasizing that the height of this rebound will determine the subsequent market direction. The current market trajectory is developing in line with our forecast.
• HYPE Price Forecast Validation: Last week's article pointed out that the probability of HYPE undergoing an adjustment near "Point 61" ($72.97) was significant. As it stands, the market movement is highly consistent with our judgment.
I. Analysis of Bitcoin's Previous Cycle Trend Structure
1. Bitcoin Daily-Level Trend Structure Analysis: (Based on price action analysis after May 6th)
Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart
Figure 1
①, As shown in (Figure 1): Since the adjustment wave starting from the high of $82,850 on May 6th, the daily chart has exhibited a four-segment adjustment structure: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4).
②, After hitting a low of $57,820 on July 1st, the market is currently running the (3-4) rebound segment, and the price has broken through the $64,500 resistance level. In last period's review, it was clearly stated: if this rebound first breaks through the $64,500 resistance, and secondly breaks through the $65,700 resistance (optimal), then when the (3-4) rebound segment completes and pulls back, the probability of stabilizing and stopping its decline above the low of $57,820 is significantly increased. This implies a subsequent stabilization and rebound scenario.
③, On the daily timeframe, through the overlap of the three segments (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4), the price has preliminarily formed a "descending consolidation zone" (as shown in the figure). Based on the above analysis, the market is highly likely to enter a "consolidation zone extension" phase, meaning the "consolidation zone" will be composed of five or even more overlapping segments. This indicates a short-term shift into a volatile and consolidating market pattern.
2. In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Hourly-Level Trend Structure: (Using 4-hour as the analysis cycle)
Bitcoin 4-Hour K-line Chart
Figure 2
①, On the 4-hour chart, the rebound from the July 1st low of $57,820 has clearly shown a three-segment structure: (44-45), (45-46), and (46-47).
②, According to the current trend structure analysis, the price is running the (46-47) rebound segment. As it creates the local high "Point 47," our proprietary "Momentum Quantitative Model" generated a clear bearish divergence signal, and the "Spread Trading Model" triggered a top warning signal (white dot). Therefore, the probability of an hourly-level technical adjustment occurring here is extremely high. If the price pulls back as expected, pay attention to the support effectiveness near "Point 46." If a stabilization signal appears at this level, a subsequent rebound is likely, with the initial upward target pointing to $65,700; if the rebound momentum is strong, the next important target is $67,300.
II. Bitcoin Price Forecast and Trading Strategy for This Week (July 13 - July 19)
1. BTC Price Trend Forecast for This Week:
Core View for This Week: Focus on the price action near the key resistance level of $64,700. If an adjustment occurs as expected, closely observe the effectiveness of support when the price pulls back near $61,500. A stabilization signal at this level will determine whether the subsequent rebound can continue.
2. Key Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Zone: $64,700 area (previous consolidation zone upper boundary)
• Second Resistance Zone: $65,700 ~ $67,300 area (previous key resistance zone)
• Third Resistance Zone: $69,500 ~ $71,000 area (previous key resistance zone)
3. Key Support Levels:
• First Support Zone: $60,950 ~ $62,000 area (previous key support level)
• Second Support Level: Near $57,820 (previous key support level)
• Third Support Level: Near $55,000 (previous key support level)
4. This Week's Trading Strategy (Excluding Sudden News Impact):
①, Medium-term Strategy: Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)
Figure 3
Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 3), the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming that the market structure has shifted to a bearish-dominated pattern.
• The current medium-term short position should be maintained at around 20%.
• If the price rallies to the $65,700 ~ $67,300 area and shows signs of stalling, combined with top signals from our proprietary quantitative model, consider increasing the medium-term short position to up to 50%.
②, Short-term Strategy: Utilize 30% of the position, set stop-losses, and look for "spread trading" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30-minute/60-minute as the operating cycle)
③, To dynamically address the complex market evolution, we have pre-defined three specific trading plans: A, B, and C.
• Plan A: Tentative Long near Support Zone $60,950 ~ $62,000. • Entry: If the price adjusts from near $64,700 and falls into the $60,950 ~ $62,000 area, showing stabilization signals combined with bottom signals from the quantitative model, aggressive investors can establish a long position of around 15%. • Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: When the price rebounds to key resistance levels combined with quantitative model signals, gradually close the position to take profit.
• Plan B: Tentative Short near Strong Resistance Zone. • Entry: If the price rallies to the $65,700 ~ $67,300 area and encounters resistance, combined with top signals from the quantitative model, establish a short position of around 30%. • Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: When the price adjusts to key support levels combined with quantitative model signals, gradually close the position to take profit.
• Plan C: Light Long near Strong Support Zone. • Entry: The price rallies, breaks above $65,700, but then meets resistance and pulls back. If it finds stabilization signals above the previous low of $57,820, combined with bottom signals from the quantitative model, establish a long position of around 30%. • Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: When the price rebounds to key resistance levels combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profit.
III. Analysis of HYPE Hourly-Level Trend Structure
HYPE 4-Hour K-line Chart
Figure 4
1, As shown in (Figure 4), HYPE's movement from the June 25th low of $58.5 (Point 54) to the July 7th high of $72.97 (Point 61) can be subdivided into a seven-segment upward structure on the 4-hour timeframe. Among these, segments 55-56, 56-57, and 57-58 overlap, forming an "upward consolidation zone."
2, In last period's review, it was pointed out: since the complete seven-segment upward structure from "Point 54 to Point 61" has been completed, and top warning signals were triggered at both "Point 59" and "Point 61", caution was advised against short-term adjustment risks. As expected last week, the market encountered resistance and adjusted near $72.97. During the (61-62) adjustment segment, the maximum drawdown was approximately 9.39%.
3, According to the 4-hour chart analysis, the price is currently running the (61-62) adjustment segment. The current "Point 62" has already broken below the previous low "Point 60" ($68.16), which initially disrupts the upward structure since "Point 54".
IV. HYPE Price Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week
1, HYPE Price Trend Forecast for This Week:
①, Key Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Level: $68 ~ $69.5 area
• Second Resistance Level: Near $72.97
• Third Resistance Level: Near $76.94
②, Key Support Levels:
• First Support Level: Near $65.5
• Second Support Zone: $60.5 ~ $61.5 area
Core View on HYPE This Week: Focus on the termination point of the current (61-62) adjustment segment and whether the subsequent rebound can break above the $72.97 resistance.
2, HYPE Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week: Short-term Operations This Week: Strategy 1: If, after the (61-62) adjustment segment concludes, the price rebounds and breaks through the $72.97 resistance, as it will be approaching the strong resistance zone of the all-time high at $76.94, it is recommended to maintain an empty position and observe.
Strategy 2: Conversely, if, after the (61-62) adjustment segment concludes, the price fails to reach $72.97 during its rebound, it is recommended to establish a short position on rallies. Strict stop-losses must be set, and the position size should be controlled within 30%.
V. Special Notes:
- Upon Entry: Immediately set an initial stop-loss.
- When Profit Reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
- When Profit Reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
- Continuous Tracking: For every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.
Financial markets are volatile and ever-changing. All market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. The viewpoints, analysis models, and trading strategies covered in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, intended solely as personal trading logs, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market carries risks. Invest with caution. Do not make decisions based solely on this information.
