The quarter-finals of the World Cup are about to kick off—who are the AI models predicting will advance?

Asher

Odaily资深作者

@Asher_0210

2026-07-09 02:36

This article is about 2972 words, reading the full article takes about 5 minutes

Different models show a high degree of consensus on the semi-finalists: France, Spain, England, and Argentina.

AI Summary

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Core Insight: Multiple AI models show a high degree of consistency in predicting the World Cup semi-finalists (France, Spain, England, and Argentina). The main disagreements lie in match details such as scores, extra time, and penalty shootouts, reflecting AI's convergence in macro-level trend analysis but divergence in handling specific details.
Key Factors:
1. France vs. Morocco: AI models uniformly predict France will advance in regular time, with score predictions concentrated around 2-0 or 2-1, believing France has a more complete attack and defense.
2. Spain vs. Belgium: AI generally favors Spain winning in regular time, but Gemini predicts a possible 1-1 draw that goes into extra time and is decided by penalties, reflecting concerns about Belgium's counter-attacking ability.
3. Norway vs. England: The most divergent prediction. While AI unanimously expects England to advance, multiple models suggest Haaland's potential to cause an upset could drag the match into extra time.
4. Argentina vs. Switzerland: AI predicts Argentina will advance but expects a tightly contested match. Claude and ChatGPT predict the game could go into extra time or a penalty shootout.

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

With the World Cup quarterfinalists set, the real knockout stage has only just begun.

France has maintained a strong team posture with stable offensive firepower, always having someone step up in critical moments. Morocco continues its dark horse momentum, eliminating Canada 3-0 in the Round of 16, proving once again that they are no flash in the pan. Spain has played the most steadily, with solid defensive discipline and possession control, sealing a last-minute winner against Portugal in the Round of 16 to knock Cristiano Ronaldo out of the quarterfinals. Belgium, meanwhile, reasserted their attacking presence with a dominant 4-1 victory over the United States.

On the other side, Norway has become the biggest surprise of the tournament. Haaland led the team to a 2-1 upset over Brazil, creating the most significant shock of the knockout stage. England, despite a rocky process, relied on squad depth to narrowly defeat Mexico 3-2. Argentina’s progression was the most dramatic, coming back from 0-2 down against Egypt to win 3-2. Switzerland dragged Colombia into a penalty shootout, advancing to the quarterfinals in typical "tough-as-nails" fashion.

To provide reference for the four upcoming quarterfinal prediction events, I separately asked ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Grok to predict the outcome, score, and whether each match would go to extra time or penalties.

Looking at the results, the AIs were unanimous on the advancing teams for all four quarterfinals, giving the semifinal answer as France, Spain, England, and Argentina. The real divergence mainly appeared in details like scores, extra time, and penalties.

All AIs Predict France Will Advance; Morocco Unlikely to Repeat Dark Horse Miracle

The first quarterfinal of this World Cup is France vs. Morocco, kicking off at 4:00 AM Beijing time on July 10. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, France has a 63% win probability; a draw is 25%; Morocco has a 14% win probability. Furthermore, including extra time and penalties, France's advancement probability is 79%, while Morocco's is 22%.

This is the match with the least divergence among the AI models across all four quarterfinals. ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Grok all favor France to advance, differing only on whether France wins 2-0 or 2-1, and whether Morocco can score a goal.

Claude and Qwen both predicted a 2-0 win for France. They believe that France is the team closest to the championship template in this tournament, with Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise consistently creating threats on the front line, and a midfield supported by Kanté, Tchouaméni, and Rabiot, making them more complete than Morocco in both attack and defense. Although Morocco has proven they are not an ordinary dark horse, their squad depth and individual ability still make it difficult to go head-to-head with France.

DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, and ChatGPT lean more towards a 2-1 win for France. Their judgment is that Morocco won't be easily broken down and still has opportunities to create threats through counter-attacks, set pieces, or wing play. However, the problem is that Morocco will find it very difficult to contain France's attacking sparks for the full 90 minutes. As the match enters the second half, France's individual quality and substitute depth will become increasingly evident.

Overall, the AI models unanimously agree that France will advance in regular time, with extra time or penalties unlikely.

AIs Favor Spain, But Belgium's Counter-Attack Is the Key Variable

The second quarterfinal is Spain vs. Belgium, kicking off at 3:00 AM Beijing time on July 11. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, Spain has a 61% win probability; a draw is 25%; Belgium has a 17% win probability. Furthermore, including extra time and penalties, Spain's advancement probability is 79%, while Belgium's is 22%.

In this match, all six AI models also favor Spain to advance, but the divergence on the match process is more pronounced than in the France vs. Morocco game.

Claude, Qwen, DeepSeek, and Grok all believe Spain can likely settle the match in regular time, with predicted scores concentrated around 2-0 or 2-1. Their core reasoning is that Spain currently has stronger overall cohesion, with stable possession control, pressing, and defensive discipline, meaning the rhythm of the game will likely be controlled by Spain.

ChatGPT's prediction is more conservative, favoring a 1-0 narrow win for Spain. It believes this won't be an open, end-to-end game, but more of a contest between "system stability" and "attacking explosiveness." Spain might not score a big win, but is more likely to secure the match through possession control, width variations, or a single set-piece opportunity.

The only one predicting extra time and penalties is Gemini. It predicts a 1-1 draw in regular time, with no further scoring in extra time, and Spain advancing via a penalty shootout. The key to this prediction lies in Belgium capitalizing on a counter-attacking opportunity to score first, potentially dragging Spain into a more exhausting and tense battle.

The Match with the Most AI Divergence: Haaland Is England's Biggest Problem

The third quarterfinal is Norway vs. England, kicking off at 5:00 AM Beijing time on July 12. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, Norway has a 23% win probability; a draw is 27%; England has a 53% win probability. Furthermore, including extra time and penalties, Norway's advancement probability is 36%, while England's is 66%.

Haaland's presence makes this knockout match the most likely to produce an upset among the four quarterfinals. Although all six AIs ultimately gave the advancement nod to England, the predictions were noticeably less certain than the previous two matches. After eliminating Brazil 2-1 in the previous round, it's no longer a question of whether Norway *can* cause an upset; they just completed one. More importantly, a player like Haaland doesn't need dominance over the entire game; just one chance could be enough to plunge England into trouble.

Qwen, DeepSeek, and Grok all believe England can likely secure a 2-1 victory in regular time. England has superior squad depth, with Bellingham, Kane, Saka, and Foden all capable of deciding a match. In contrast, Norway's attack relies more heavily on the connection between Haaland and Ødegaard; if this link is cut off, Norway's attacking threat drops significantly.

However, Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT clearly hedged their bets by factoring in extra time. Claude believes England might eke out a narrow win in regular time or could be dragged into extra time by Norway. Gemini predicts a 2-2 draw in regular time, with England securing a late winner in extra time thanks to their bench depth. ChatGPT predicts a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes, with England advancing 2-1 after extra time.

AIs Favor Argentina Advancement; Switzerland Could Drag the Match to Penalties

The fourth quarterfinal is Argentina vs. Switzerland, kicking off at 9:00 AM Beijing time on July 12. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, Argentina has a 58% win probability; a draw is 28%; Switzerland has a 17% win probability. Furthermore, including extra time and penalties, Argentina's advancement probability is 74%, while Switzerland's is 27%.

In this match, the AIs unanimously agree that Argentina will advance. Unlike predictions for France and Spain, which leaned more towards "dominant team suppression," Argentina vs. Switzerland feels more like a game of patience.

Qwen and Gemini gave the most optimistic predictions, both favoring Argentina to win 2-0 in regular time. Argentina's comeback from 0-2 down against Egypt in the previous round to win 3-2 has rejuvenated the team's form and morale. Facing Switzerland, a team without exceptionally prominent attacking firepower, Argentina has a chance to settle the match within 90 minutes as long as they minimize defensive errors.

DeepSeek and Grok are more cautious, both leaning towards a 2-1 win for Argentina. Switzerland has a stable defensive organization and strong match discipline, making them hard to break down easily. However, the problem is that Switzerland's offense lacks sustained pressure capability. Once Argentina scores first, Switzerland will find it difficult to pull the game back to their desired rhythm.

Those hedging against extra time and penalties are Claude and ChatGPT. Claude believes opponents like Switzerland can easily drag Argentina into a tough battle, with the match potentially ending 1-1 in regular time and being decided by a penalty shootout. ChatGPT directly predicts an Argentina victory on penalties, arguing that Switzerland has the ability to turn the match into a low-scoring, attritional battle, waiting to rely on goalkeepers and penalty quality in the end.