Adjustment Ending or Trend Continuation: Technical Structure Review of BTC and HYPE | Special Analysis

This weekly report presents a multi-timeframe technical structure analysis centered on two major assets: BTC and HYPE. For Bitcoin, the analysis starts from the daily and 4-hour timeframes, reviews the corrective structure since the May 6 high, and utilizes a proprietary quantitative model to forecast key resistance, support, and short-to-medium-term trading paths for the week. For HYPE, the focus is on the 4-hour chart to analyze the current rebound's structural evolution and provide risk management suggestions for short-term trading this week. The details are as follows.

Last Week's Strategy Verification

• BTC Forecast Verification: Last week's report explicitly stated that the short-term correction for Bitcoin was nearing its end. The market's actual path closely aligned with the predicted trajectory, validating the forward-looking analysis.
• HYPE Forecast Verification: Last week's report indicated that HYPE would soon present a short-term long entry opportunity. Current market movements have confirmed this assessment.

1. Multi-Timeframe BTC Structure Analysis

1. Daily Chart Structure Analysis

Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart

Chart 1

① As shown in Chart 1: Since the corrective move began from the May 6 high of $82,850, the daily chart has exhibited a clear four-wave corrective structure from "Point 0" to "Point 4".

② The market is currently executing the (3-4) rebound leg. The final price level of "Point 4" will determine the short-term price direction.

• Scenario 1: If the "Point 4" rebound price breaks through the $65,700 resistance level, the probability of a subsequent decline directly breaking the July 1 low of $57,820 is significantly reduced. In this scenario, after the correction concludes, the market is likely to rebound again, with the overall short-term trend trending towards a range-bound consolidation. The longer this consolidation structure persists, the more it helps slow downward momentum and gather strength for a subsequent bullish counterattack.
• Scenario 2: If the "Point 4" rebound fails to reach $65,700, or even stays below $64,500, the probability of a subsequent decline directly breaking $57,820 increases substantially, making a continuation of the downtrend more likely.

③ Based on our proprietary quantitative model analysis, the probability of the market entering a range-bound consolidation (Scenario 1) is significantly higher.

2. In-depth Hourly Chart Structure Analysis (Using 4-Hour Timeframe)

Bitcoin 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

Chart 2

① Last week's report noted: "If the low of 'Point 44' is below $58,110 and accompanied by a bullish momentum divergence, the market would see a rebound opportunity." Last week's price action confirmed this assessment, with the actual movement closely matching the predicted structure.

② On the 4-hour chart, the hourly-level downtrend that began from the June 15 high of $67,300 has completed a full five-wave structure. Simultaneously, at the end of the correction, comparing the lows of "Point 44" and "Point 42" reveals a clear bullish momentum divergence, providing technical support for the subsequent oversold rebound.

③ The market is currently in the (44-45) rebound leg. As seen in Chart 2, the current rebound high ("Point 45") has already broken above the lower boundary of the prior "Declining Center F" (around $62,300), signaling that the short-term trend is developing favorably for buyers. If the price can further break through "Point 41" (around $65,700), it would indicate an escalation in rebound strength, significantly reducing the probability of a subsequent pullback directly breaking "Point 44" (around $57,820).

2. Bitcoin Weekly Forecast and Trading Strategy (07.06 - 07.12)

1. BTC Weekly Trend Forecast

Core View: Focus on the peak of the daily oversold rebound initiated from the $57,820 low.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

   • First Resistance Zone: $64,500 - $65,700 region (prior key high/low area)  

   • Second Resistance Zone: Near $67,300 (previous key resistance area)  

   • Third Resistance Zone: $69,500 - $71,000 region (previous key resistance area)

3. Key Support Levels:

    • First Support Level: $60,950 - $62,300 region (prior key support area)

    • Second Support Level: Near $57,820 (prior key support level)

    • Third Support Level: Near $55,000 (prior key support level)

4. This Week's Trading Strategy

① Medium-Term Strategy:

Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Chart 3

As shown in Chart 3, the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming the market structure has shifted to a bearish dominant pattern.

• Maintain medium-term short positions at approximately 20% for now.
• If the price rallies to the $65,700 - $67,300 region and shows signs of stalling, combined with top signals from our proprietary quantitative model, consider increasing medium-term short positions to within 50%.

② Short-Term Strategy

Utilize 30% of capital with a stop-loss in place, seeking "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using the 30-minute/60-minute chart as the operating timeframe).

③ Short-Term Trading Plans

To dynamically address complex market evolution, two specific operational plans, Plan A and Plan B, are prepared in advance:

• Plan A: Tentative Shorting at Strong Resistance
• Entry: If the price rallies to the $65,700 - $67,300 region and meets resistance, combined with top signals from the quantitative model, establish a short position of approximately 30%.
• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the correction nears a key support level, combined with signals from the quantitative model, gradually close the position to take profits.
• Plan B: Light Long Position at Strong Support
• Entry: If the price breaks above the $65,700 region but then meets resistance and declines, showing signs of stabilization near the strong support at $57,820, combined with bottom signals from the quantitative model, establish a long position of approximately 15%.
• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the rebound nears a key resistance level, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.

3. HYPE Hourly Chart Structure Analysis

HYPE 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

Chart 4

1. As shown in Chart 4, last week's report noted: "If 'Point 56' is higher than 'Point 54', it forms a 'double bottom' pattern. This correction might be ending, and a rebound from 'Point 56' is highly probable." To date, the market's trajectory has been highly consistent with this analysis. In the actual price action last week, HYPE rose from "Point 56" (approx. $60.55) to "Point 59" (approx. $72.06), achieving a maximum gain of approximately 19.01% during the period.
2. Analyzing from the 4-hour chart, the rebound initiated by HYPE from its June 25 low of $58.5 (Point 54) can be subdivided into a seven-wave upward structure on the 4-hour timeframe: 54-55, 55-56, 56-57, 57-58, 58-59, 59-60, 60-61.
3. The price is currently executing the 60-61 upward wave, with the overall upward structure appearing complete. However, our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" has triggered top warning signals at both "Point 59" and "Point 61." Furthermore, the price is approaching the historical high area around $76.94. Therefore, blindly chasing the rally at this point is inadvisable; traders should be wary of short-term correction risks.

4. HYPE Weekly Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategy

1. HYPE Weekly Trend Forecast

Key Resistance Levels

• First Resistance: Around $75 - $76.94
• Second Resistance: Around $80

Key Support Levels

• First Support: Around $68
• Second Support: Around $65.5
• Third Support: $60.5 - $61.5 region

Core View for the Week: Observe the outcome of the battle between buyers and sellers in the $75 - $76.94 region.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week

This week focuses on closing positions, locking in profits, and managing risk. If long positions were already established in the support zone according to the plan, it is recommended to move the stop-loss up to around $68 to protect profits (or decide at your discretion). If the market shows signs of a correction, close positions promptly to take profits.

5. HYPE Short-Term Trade Review

Strictly adhering to our operational plan, we executed one short-term (long) trade last week based on signals from our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model." The total trading profit was approximately 10.23%.

Short-Term Trade 1: (See Table 1)

① HYPE Short-Term Trade Details Summary: (Leverage 1x)

Table 1

② Short-Term Trade Review: (See Chart 5)

• Entry Strategy:

a. Based on a precise analysis of the overall upward price trend.

b. When the price effectively broke above the short-term downtrend line, and both the "Spread Trading Model" and the "Momentum Quantitative Model" simultaneously issued a bullish divergence confirmation signal.

Consequently, a 30% long position was established at $64.

• Exit Strategy:

a. When the price approached the $72 resistance area and showed signs of stalling, forming a "top divergence" pattern on the candlestick chart.

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong top warning signal (green dot + white dot), which coincided with a top confirmation signal from the "Momentum Quantitative Model."

Consequently, the entire position was closed around $70.55.

• Summary: This trade resulted in a successful profit of approximately 10.23%.

HYPE 60-Minute Candlestick Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

Chart 5 (Short-Term Trade Illustration)

6. Special Notes

1. When opening a position: Immediately set the initial stop-loss.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (breakeven point) to ensure principal safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous Tracking: For every subsequent 1% gain in price, move the stop-loss up by 1% simultaneously, dynamically protecting and locking in profits.

Financial markets are highly dynamic. All market analysis and trading strategies require constant adjustment. All opinions, analytical models, and operational strategies presented in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and serve solely as personal trading logs. They do not constitute any form of investment advice or trading basis. Market risks exist; invest with caution. Do not make decisions based solely on this content.