每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks (0627-0703)

郝方舟

Odaily资深作者

@OdailyChina

2026-07-04 02:18

This article is about 3472 words, reading the full article takes about 5 minutes

A selection of high-quality in-depth analysis articles and a recap of the week's hot topics.

AI Summary

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Key Takeaway: Market fragility is intensifying, increasing the cost-effectiveness of Bitcoin as a hedging tool; the declining cost of AI computing power is paradoxically driving up demand for chips, with NVIDIA evolving from a chip supplier into the "central bank" of the computing ecosystem; the enactment of the EU's MiCA regulation has led to a large-scale delisting of exchanges.
Key Elements:
1. Global supply chain disruptions are weakening the economic resilience of multiple countries, causing market fragility to accumulate rapidly, with draining liquidity forcing capital to concentrate on a few trades.
2. Lower AI model prices are driving increased demand for physical computing power. NVIDIA is extending downstream through its "Compute Collaboration Plan," participating in revenue sharing to control the industry chain.
3. News that Meta might release surplus computing power triggered a sharp decline in memory chip stocks like SK Hynix, but this pullback is more sentiment-driven than a reversal of the industry trend.
4. In the iPhone profit distribution, Apple takes about 25% and TSMC takes 4-5%, while memory suppliers account for only about 3%, but their bargaining power has increased with the backing of AI.
5. The EU's MiCA transition period has ended, with approximately 194 crypto companies obtaining authorization. Bitget and KuCoin are still applying, while Binance's withdrawal of its application has led to user outflows.
6. Strategy has released a "Digital Credit Capital Framework" self-rescue plan, including cash reserves and Bitcoin monetization plans, to which the market has reacted positively.
7. Trump disclosed holding over $100 million in BTC and ETH, the U.S. CFTC has launched an investigation into Polymarket, and the SEC has initiated a review of ETF rules.

Information flows too fast, making it easy for in-depth analysis articles to get buried by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Pick" column sifts through the vast sea of news to bring you content worth evaluating, filtering out the noise, leaving you with insights and inspiration.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

Metrics Ventures Market Observations: The World's Fragility Is Rapidly Accumulating

Since 2022, disruptions in global supply chains have progressively cornered the economic resilience and monetary-fiscal policy autonomy of countries like Japan, South Korea, and Europe, quietly building momentum for future tremors in global capital markets. A liquidity crunch, excluding AI and some non-ferrous metal sectors, is actually happening. Fragile nations are rushing to double down on centralized trading. This all-or-nothing approach, given the current international political and economic landscape, is unlikely to end well.

We need to seriously consider the possibility of MSTR continuously selling BTC. Meanwhile, the indefinitely distant demand makes BTC increasingly cost-effective as a hedging/shorting strategy against other assets.

What Does Apple's $4.3 Trillion Market Cap Mean? A Beginner-Friendly Guide to Stock Valuation

Start with the P/E ratio to understand the basic pricing of a stock relative to its earnings, comparing it with the company's historical average and industry peers. Add the PEG ratio to factor in growth rate – a high P/E ratio is more reasonable when growth is high. Use the price-to-sales ratio for a less easily manipulated revenue perspective. Calculate the free cash flow yield and compare it directly with the risk-free rate – this is the clearest comparison between the actual cash return you get from the business and a risk-free alternative. Use EV/EBITDA for cross-capital structure comparisons. Use ROE and ROIC to assess business quality, justifying a reasonable premium. Finally, step back and think at the DCF level: what growth rate is implied by the current price? Is that realistic?

Valuation isn't a formula that outputs a buy or sell recommendation. It's a language – helping you think clearly about what you're paying for, what you're getting, and whether the deal makes sense given everything you know.

Web3 & AI

The Cheaper AI Gets, The More Expensive Chips Become

A past narrative thread in AI suggested that inference efficiency would kill chip demand. However, the reality is that the cheaper AI gets, the more valuable physical computing power becomes – every dollar model vendors spend on price wars ultimately flows into the pockets of chip and wafer manufacturers.

Nvidia Starts Taking a Cut of Cloud Providers' Revenue

Nvidia is offering financial backstop commitments to young cloud providers that lease its GPUs: if these companies fail to find enough AI developers to rent the computing power, Nvidia will lease back their unsold GPU capacity at an agreed price. As a condition, Nvidia will take a share of these cloud providers' revenue, gradually decreasing over the contract period.

This "AI Computing Partnership Program" marks a significant strategic shift for Nvidia: on one hand, it expands its customer base by lowering the financing barrier for emerging cloud providers; on the other hand, by directly participating in the profit distribution of the downstream computing market through revenue sharing, it extends its control down the AI supply chain. Nvidia is evolving from a chip seller into the "central bank" of the AI computing ecosystem.

Ahead of US Trip, SK Hynix Tanked Like a Memecoin

News about Meta potentially releasing excess computing power sparked speculation that major tech firms might cut capital expenditure, triggering severe market volatility. As the narrative of "absolute scarcity" in AI computing power began to show cracks, the semiconductor memory chip sector took a direct hit, with related concept stocks experiencing massive collective pullbacks in secondary markets – SK Hynix's Korean stock closed down 14.57%, losing over a hundred billion dollars in market cap in one day.

However, this sharp decline in SK Hynix, including the broader sector correction, is more akin to a liquidity-driven stampede amplified by sentiment rather than a substantive reversal of the industry trend.

The Power Shift Between Apple and the "Microns": Deconstructing the Profit Bill Behind the iPhone

Of the profit from one iPhone, Apple takes roughly one-quarter, memory giants take about one-thirtieth, while TSMC, due to its monopoly position, takes about 4%-5% profit share; the remaining portion covers other hardware suppliers, channels, R&D, and taxes.

With AI backing them up, memory suppliers are finally becoming bolder in front of Apple.

Prediction Markets

Predicting World Cup Knockout Stages: Why Are Different AIs So Far Apart?

Gemini and DeepSeek write upset scripts; Grok and Qwen handle small-score favorites; ChatGPT and Claude are better for match analysis.

World Cup Upsets Galore, Prediction Market's "Dumb Money" Tickled Me

Loss-making cases don't necessarily have contrarian indicator value.

Policy & Stablecoins

MiCA Transition Ends, Licenses Scarce, Europe Faces Largest Exchange Shakeout

On July 1st, the transitional grace period for the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) officially ended.

Approximately 194 crypto companies have received formal MiCA authorization. Coinbase in Luxembourg, Kraken in Ireland, OKX in Malta, and Bybit in Austria all secured licenses ahead of time. Bitget, KuCoin, and others are still in the application process. Binance withdrew its application in Greece, causing a short-term outflow of users and funds.

A Major Threat Arrives, CRCL Plunges Over 17%

The new dollar stablecoin Open USD by Open Standard is set to officially launch later this year, featuring a prestigious list of partners, with returns generated from reserve assets going to the partners.

Open USD starts from a position far superior to typical new projects in terms of compliance, distribution channels, and adoption rate.

CeFi & DeFi

The "Lightning Five Whip"! Strategy's Self-Rescue Plan Officially Unveiled

Strategy has officially announced a new plan called the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," aimed at strengthening the credit quality of its various preferred stocks (clearly referring to STRC here), enhancing liquidity, and creating long-term value for shareholders while maintaining long-term Bitcoin exposure.

Specific details include: Cash reserve position; STRC dividend policy; Preferred stock buyback plan; Common stock buyback plan; Bitcoin monetization plan.

The market has relatively positive expectations for Strategy's self-rescue plan. Both MSTR and STRC have seen upward movement.

Why STRC Preferred Stock Struggles to Return to $100

Higher dividend rates could become a financial burden for Strategy, potentially worsening its financial position. Offering high dividend yields in an unfavorable environment could also be a negative psychological factor for investors. Therefore, dividend rate adjustments cannot serve as a fundamental solution. Unless a redemption occurs, the $100 per share claim entitlement is meaningless.

Meme

Real-Life "Black Mirror" Pump.fun Go: Lick a Toilet for $40, Get a Logo Tattooed on Forehead for $14K

Ethereum & Scaling

EF: Ethereum Is Becoming the Neutral Infrastructure Governments and Institutions Need Most

Weekly Hot Topics Catch-Up

Policy & Macro Markets

The US CFTC launches a broad investigation into Polymarket;

The SEC initiates a review of ETF rules, focusing on crypto funds and prediction market ETFs;

The SEC investigates suspected insider trading involving Futu and Tiger Brokers, making $100 million in profits through options bets;

Warsh: The Federal Reserve will chart a new course, providing no forward guidance; Inflation risks have declined somewhat;

Trump discloses holding over $100 million in BTC and ETH, reporting income over $1.4 billion for the 2025 filing period; Trump responds to massive crypto gains: I was unaware;

Trump: Made a lot of money from the stock market rally, last year's profit was solely due to the stock market rally, funds managed by professionals;

South Korea to invest 800 trillion won to build chip factories for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (Analysis);