每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0509-0515）

郝方舟

Odaily资深作者

@OdailyChina

2026-05-16 02:32

This article is about 3409 words, reading the full article takes about 5 minutes

A selection of high-quality in-depth analysis articles and a one-week catch-up on hot topics.

AI Summary

Expand

Core Insights: This week, the blockchain and crypto markets are focused on the dual impact of regulatory policies (CLARITY Act) and geopolitical factors (NACHO trades) on asset prices and market structure. Meanwhile, the public chain fundraising boom and new CeFi narratives (Uniswap v4 Hook) introduce new variables to the market, but the high FDV and unvested selling pressure risks of assets like HYPE warrant caution.
Key Elements:
1. A "NACHO" trade is emerging on Wall Street, betting on the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz by speculating on geopolitical risks through insurance, oil prices, and rate cut markets, replacing the previous "TACO" trade that bet on "Trump backing down."
2. A Bitwise report indicates that top capital is betting on new public chains like Arc, Canton, and Tempo, specifically designed for stablecoin and asset tokenization scenarios. Capital flows are following regulatory legislation, with privacy protection becoming a core application direction.
3. Opinions suggest that HYPE will face significant difficulty doubling again, as 75% of its tokens remain unvested, creating selling pressure. Its current FDV is already close to the valuation of traditional exchanges, buyers are unaccounted for, and it faces multiple risks including regulation and hacking.
4. If the CLARITY Act passes, it will remove institutional entry barriers. The CFTC clearly asserting jurisdiction over DeFi will cause profit-seeking capital to withdraw from idle stablecoin yield products and flood into compliant yield protocols like Pendle and Morpho.
5. The Uniswap v4 Hook mechanism tokens (e.g., sato, Lo0p) have ignited new market narratives and driven ecosystem growth, though UNI's short-term upside is limited.
6. LayerZero faces a crisis of trust following the Kelp DAO exploit, with capital accelerating its migration to Chainlink's CCIP protocol. On-chain data is growing, making Chainlink the beneficiary of this crisis.
7. Grayscale recommends modifying Ethereum's staking model by setting a reward cap curve to control ETH inflation and strengthen its store of value narrative. While this may reduce short-term staking yields, it is beneficial for the long-term price.

The information flow is too fast, making it easy for in-depth analytical articles to be drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column sifts through the vast amount of news to bring you content with true judgmental value, helping you filter out the noise, capture insights, and gain inspiration.

Macro

"TACO" is Outdated, Wall Street is Embracing "NACHO" Trades

NACHO stands for "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens."

It is the inverse version of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). TACO bets on "people backing down," that Trump would retreat at a critical moment. NACHO bets on "situations stagnating," that the Strait of Hormuz can't be reopened this time with just one Truth Social post.

NACHO isn't just rhetoric; it's the same bet, backed by real money, across three independent derivatives markets: insurance, oil prices, and interest rate cuts.

The market is no longer trading Trump's next Truth Social post; it's now trading the early June inventory data for the Strait of Hormuz.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

After 50x Storage, Justin Sun is Always Looking to the Next Decade

"In the short term, there's a chip shortage; in the long term, an energy shortage; but there's always a storage shortage."

In early 2026, Justin Sun's predictions were: embodied intelligence, drones, spatial computing, and space exploration.

Anthropic and OpenAI: The Axe Falls on Pre-IPO Token Logic

Anthropic and OpenAI have both declared that they do not recognize unauthorized stock transfers. The risks of SPVs being over-financialized through "matryoshka doll" structures are becoming apparent. This has been reflected in the market, with pre-IPO token prices plummeting while contracts remained relatively stable.

In a way, the public "fact-checking" by Anthropic and OpenAI is also redrawing boundaries for this newly emerging, wildly growing market. For speculators, this is a lesson in risk; but for the long-term development of the industry, the market may need such a "de-bubbling" moment.

Bitwise: Why the Frenzy Among Top-Tier VCs for New L1 Blockchains?

Three L1 blockchains – Arc, Canton, and Tempo – are all tailor-made for stablecoin and asset tokenization use cases.

The key takeaway from this wave of concentrated fundraising is: Capital always follows regulatory legislation; privacy protection could become a phenomenal core application.

A Contrarian View: Why HYPE is Unlikely to Double Again

With 75% of the token supply still locked, future selling pressure persists; the current FDV is already approaching or even exceeding the valuation range of some traditional exchanges; and at this price point, it remains unclear whether new marginal buyers will come from retail, traditional institutions, or crypto funds.

More importantly, HYPE faces not just valuation issues, but also risks from regulation, hacks, key-person dependency, and liquidity migration of traders.

For an asset that has already received significant market attention and been heavily shilled by KOLs, the real question is no longer "Does it have a narrative?" but "Who will keep buying it at this price?" When a crypto asset transitions from alpha to consensus, investors need to reassess not just how good the project is, but whether the current price has already priced in the future prematurely.

AI

The Semiconductor Century: An Investment Roadmap for the AI Frenzy of 2026

High-value AI chips contribute about half of the industry's revenue but account for less than 0.2% of total shipments. Semiconductors have evolved from consumer electronic components into strategic assets for giants with market caps exceeding $10 trillion.

The four key roles in the supply chain are: Designers (Architects), Foundries (Manufacturers), Equipment Providers (Toolmakers), and Memory Manufacturers (Storage Layer).

Key companies worth researching include: NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, AMD, Broadcom (AVGO), and SK Hynix.

Semiconductor ETFs include: SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF), SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF), SOXQ (Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF).

Key catalysts to watch: The trillion-dollar market cap milestone, TSMC's Arizona fab ramp-up, NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform deployment, AMD's market share progress, memory pricing, and HBM4 supply.

Policy & Stablecoins

When Stablecoins No Longer Yield: 7 DeFi Protocols Benefiting from the CLARITY Act

Once the CLARITY Act is formally enacted, it will immediately trigger two major shifts: Institutional capital clears the entry barrier.

BlackRock, Apollo, Deutsche Bank, pension funds, corporate treasuries – they were all waiting on the sidelines. Compliance teams couldn't assess whether these assets were securities, so they dared not allocate heavily. Now, with the CFTC's clear jurisdiction and a safe harbor for DeFi, institutions can finally enter in a big way. Profit-seeking capital abandons idle stablecoin savings. The era of earning ~5% APY just by holding USDC on an exchange is over. Tens of billions of dollars in yield-seeking capital must find a new home.

Therefore, two massive capital flows (institutional investors finally entering + retail investors seeking yields) will converge on the same types of assets: compliant products with real business use cases and structured yield-generation.

Protocols tailor-made for this new regulatory landscape include: Pendle (base-layer yield infrastructure), Morpho (on-chain prime broker), Sky (USDS/sUSDS), Maple Finance (on-chain credit desk), Centrifuge (native RWA issuance layer), and protocols related to STRC assets (paving the way for fixed-income track).

Also recommended: "Earnings, Legislation, Fed... Circle Faces a Triple Gauntlet This Week", "The CLARITY Act Arrives: Is Ethereum the Biggest Winner?", "Under the CLARITY Act: XRP and the New Order of the Crypto Market".

CeFi & DeFi

Is Hook Summer Really Here? sato, Lo0p, FLOOD Ignite a New Narrative for Uniswap v4

Following ASTEROID, ecosystem tokens built on the Uniswap v4 Hook protocol like sato, sat1, Lo0p, and FLOOD have become market focuses, with market caps ranging from millions to tens of millions of dollars, bringing rare concentrated liquidity to a narrative-depleted crypto market.

Hook mechanism tokens drive Uniswap ecosystem development: UNI is bullish long-term, but short-term gains are limited.

A $3 Billion DeFi Capital Migration: LayerZero Stumbles, Chainlink Feasts

The rescue operation following the Kelp DAO attack has also seen substantial progress recently. However, restoring market trust will be much harder than repairing the capital aspect.

LayerZero, the cross-chain leader at the epicenter of this storm, is facing an exodus of protocols and was forced into a rapid about-face within weeks—shifting from initial blame-shifting to public apologies and initiating remediation. Meanwhile, Chainlink emerged as an unexpected beneficiary, with its CCIP protocol absorbing a significant inflow of migrated liquidity, evidenced by a clear uptick in on-chain data.

Airdrop Opportunities & Interaction Guides

Hot Interaction Compilation | The Beacon Season 1 Pre-Registration; GenLayer Latest Testnet Interaction (May 15)

Circle Releases Arc Whitepaper: What are the Early Interaction Opportunities?

Meme

From the A9 Myth to Being Millions in Debt: The 5-Year Rollercoaster of a Meme Trader

Ethereum & Scaling

Grayscale: Ethereum's Staking Model Needs an Overhaul

Ethereum's current staking reward model faces two structural problems: L2s diverting activity leads to lower token burn and higher net issuance; the staking threshold approaches zero, potentially locking almost all ETH into staking.

The community is discussing setting a cap or curve on staking rewards. Grayscale believes this would be beneficial for ETH's price in the long run. The Ethereum community is considering modifying the network's staking reward model, with the core idea being to incentivize staking only up to a certain percentage, beyond which no extra rewards are given.

If implemented, the nominal yield for stakers would decrease. However, Grayscale argues this is good for ETH's long-term price for two reasons: controlling ETH inflation and strengthening ETH's narrative as a store of value asset.