SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230901): ETF postponed, crypto market generally fell
Yesterday, China announced further easing policies, lowering the minimum down payment for first and second homes to 20% / 30% (-10%) respectively, and lowering the minimum mortgage interest rate for second homes to LPR + 20 basis points (original (LPR + 60 basis points), in addition to providing additional support to existing first-home mortgage borrowers, allowing them to apply to the lending bank for a reduction in loan interest rates to further support the real estate market; since the Politburo meeting , China’s leadership has clearly demonstrated its intention to stimulate the economy, launching a series of thoughtful and targeted measures in the monetary, fiscal and real estate fields.
In the United States, economic data was mixed. Challenger reported that layoffs reached a four-month high of 75,200 in August (an increase of 51,500 from July). On the other hand, initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 228,000, better than expected, but the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits increased slightly; the PCE price index in July increased by 0.2% month-on-month, basically in line with expectations, but the year-on-year growth began to accelerate again, reaching 3.3%, higher than the previous value of 3.0% , core PCE growth was 4.2% year-on-year, also higher than the previous value of 4.1%.
On the manufacturing front, the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) fell 10.5 points to 47.3 in August after rising 2.3 points in July. It was below 50 for the first time since May, mainly due to declines in new orders, employment and shipments. The decline in recent data is clearly inconsistent with the forecasts of the Atlanta Feds GDPNow model.
Non-farm employment data will be released today. The market generally expects an increase of 170,000 jobs. However, considering the recent weakness in employment data, the real market expectations may be lower. Other big data indicators seem to confirm a similar downward trend. Recently Strikes in Hollywood and layoffs at Yellow Transportation may also have a one-time negative impact on the data.
Finally, in terms of cryptocurrency, the U.S. SEC (unsurprisingly) announced that decisions on BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco and Valkyrie spot ETF applications will be postponed until at least mid-October. In addition, the market is also beginning to worry about Mt. Gox payouts will begin in the coming months, with cryptocurrency prices showing little improvement beyond the end of the month.
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