过去两个月BTC现货市场走势不甚明朗：8月虽触及长期目标区间（12.5–13.5万美元）下沿，但形态欠佳，需谨慎评估后续价格行为。当前技术结构呈现双重顶形态，两次触及关键位12.5万美元后遭到反弹，预示市场可能进入横盘调整模式。若再次上探前高失败，或将引发更深度回调

正如预期所示，我们已进入季节性波动剧烈的九月周期：非农就业资料略逊于预期，三个月平均增速放缓至疫情以来最低水准。

随著季节性棘手的9–11月来临，我们建议保持谨慎。

经过一整周的期待，鲍威尔主席发表了一场引人注目的演讲，他出人意料地发表了鸽派言论，强调就业的下行风险，并愿意暂时忽略关税相关的通胀压力。

我们结束了一个震荡但最终收于区间内的一周，最新的通胀指标走势分化：在之前一周温和的CPI（消费者价格指数）之后，7月PPI（生产者价格指数）意外大幅上涨（环比+0.9% vs 预期+0.2%，主要由专业服务价格跳涨推动）。

上周末BTC强势突破旗形形态顶部，明显正在为重新试探历史高点（ATH）作准备。我们维持看涨观点，目标区间$125-135k（极端情况下可能触及$140k），我们认为这可能是本轮上涨的周期高点。

本周没有太多新动态可报告，因为标普500指数在非农资料公布后的冲击中恢复过来，重新接近历史高点。另一方面，纳斯达克指数受益于强劲的财报表现，创下新纪录，无视特朗普政府持续的政治风波以及新的进口关税问题。

市场目前处于一个微妙的关口，预期多空双方将陷入拉锯，短期内尚难分出胜负。

上周市场进入盘整阶段，周五曾尝试下探115,000美元支撑点位，在短暂跌破后迅速反弹，最终守住关口。目前价格重回盘整区间，但上行动能有所增强。从表面看，这一形态为重返历史高点奠定了强势基础，若突破成功，目标价位或将指向125,000-135,000美元区间。

15% seems to be the "new baseline" tariff line for all future US trade agreements. According to the latest announcements from the United States, Japan and the European Union last weekend, the European Union has now agreed to accept a general tariff rate of 15% like Japan, but there are still some unsettled details in terms of energy procurement and VAT arrangements. Overall, the agreement is expected to bring about $90 billion to $100 billion in additional tariff revenue to the United States and attract about $600 billion in new investment from continental Europe. If everything is implemented, it will be a pretty good report card for the ruling authorities.

Another week, another all-time high. The S&P 500 hit another all-time high on Friday, the third time this week and the sixth time in July. The market continues to ignore the ongoing tariff escalation (30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU), the initial transmission of price pressures in the latest CPI data, and the latest farce of removing Fed Chairman Powell for "just cause".

Are markets expecting another “TACO-style” policy reversal soon? Or will the current strength of the stock market force the President to take more aggressive action? We will soon find out...

We expect the market to break out of its all-time highs in the coming weeks, and if we manage to break out of $113,000, we could quickly move to $120,000 and eventually $125-135,000.

The U.S. market resumed trading after the July 4 long weekend and quickly announced a small concession on the upcoming tariff deadline. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that tariffs on various countries will be postponed until August 1, giving trading partners a final period of negotiating time to reach a deal at the last minute.

The price of the cryptocurrency has been trading in a narrow flag channel for the past few weeks, but things are about to change.