Another week, another all-time high. The S&P 500 hit another all-time high on Friday, the third time this week and the sixth time in July. The market continues to ignore the ongoing tariff escalation (30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU), the initial transmission of price pressures in the latest CPI data, and the latest farce of removing Fed Chairman Powell for "just cause".

Are markets expecting another “TACO-style” policy reversal soon? Or will the current strength of the stock market force the President to take more aggressive action? We will soon find out...

We expect the market to break out of its all-time highs in the coming weeks, and if we manage to break out of $113,000, we could quickly move to $120,000 and eventually $125-135,000.

The U.S. market resumed trading after the July 4 long weekend and quickly announced a small concession on the upcoming tariff deadline. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that tariffs on various countries will be postponed until August 1, giving trading partners a final period of negotiating time to reach a deal at the last minute.

The price of the cryptocurrency has been trading in a narrow flag channel for the past few weeks, but things are about to change.

The Iran-Israel conflict escalates and risk aversion intensifies.

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Geopolitics has once again become the focus of the market. Israel's attack on Iranian facilities and Iran's subsequent retaliation caused oil prices to surge and weakened the market's risk sentiment last Friday. The market is concerned about the risk of escalation, especially Iran's possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and possible intervention by the United States, which will affect the trend of oil prices during the peak summer driving season in the United States.

Last week, the market hit the support level of $99k-101k but then quickly rebounded back to the $105k-106k range, strongly suggesting that the price will try to break through to a new high again in the short term. If this breakthrough fails, the time of this wave of rise may be further extended and we will return to the $90k-95k range first. Otherwise, we expect this price breakthrough to lead us towards the expected $125k target, and at the same time, as the price reaches a new high, the realized volatility will also rebound from the current low.

The nonfarm payrolls report for May was solid, with 139,000 new jobs added, higher than Wall Street's expectations of 126,000, but the new jobs were mainly concentrated in the leisure and entertainment and healthcare sectors, while there were net losses in the government and manufacturing sectors.

Although Bitcoin retreated from its highs in the past week, the price of the currency was basically in a sideways correction, which did not affect the overall upward trend. We still believe that the market will try to break upward again in the next few weeks or months, which may push us to the ultimate target of 120-130k US dollars.

Earlier this month, Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong first proposed the little-known acronym "TACO," which stands for Trump Always Chickens Out, to mock the president for always backing down after a tough start. Armstrong suggested that in the face of the Trump administration's trade threats, rival countries can actually "wait a while" to avoid danger.

After breaking through the previous highest price, Bitcoin price first rose all the way to 111.9k USD, then fell below the resistance level of 108.25-109.75k USD due to Trump's tariff news and a lot of selling pressure, but then fluctuated in a narrow range. From the current situation, we tend to think that the market will gradually rise in a relatively stable manner (there may be some fluctuations locally), which may soon push the price of the currency to the target price of 125k USD.

After announcing the suspension of additional tariffs on China, President Trump suddenly posted on social media that the EU trade negotiations "have made no progress," so he "recommends imposing a 50% tariff directly on the EU starting June 1, 2025." Trump pointed out that the EU has "strong trade barriers, value-added taxes, ridiculous corporate fines, non-monetary trade barriers, currency manipulation, and unfair and unreasonable lawsuits against American companies," and believed that these measures have led to an "unacceptable" trade deficit of more than $250 billion a year in the United States.

Since the price of the coin broke into the higher price range (101-110k USD), the volatility of market activities, both high-frequency and daily, has been very low. Balanced buying and selling transactions on both sides have kept the price of the coin well within the range. Considering the market's usual volatility cycle, we found that the volatility cycle in the past year and a half is generally within 14-20 days, and rarely exceeds 20 days, suggesting that the market's patience may be exhausted in the next week.