SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230831): There are signs that the encryption market will recover in the fourth quarter

The bad news is good news scenario was repeated as weak ADP employment data coupled with a downward revision to GDP helped the SP 500 post its 4th straight day of gains. ADP employment increased by 177,000 in August, lower than the 195,000 expected, although the previous value was also revised up from 324,000 to 371,000; in terms of GDP, although consumption and service spending increased, GDP growth in the second quarter increased from 2.4% It was revised down to 2.1%, mainly due to larger reductions in items such as business fixed investment, nonresidential spending and pricing.

Fixed-income markets were much calmer heading into month-end than the previous day, with bond yields largely unchanged despite another rally in stocks; some sentiment gauges were down over the long haul, driven by Chinas piecemeal stimulus package and weaker economic indicators. It has turned positive again after August, including MSCIs bull and bear indicators have also turned positive recently. The market cannot wait to see todays PCE and Fridays non-farm payrolls data. At the same time, with the arrival of the Labor Day long weekend, market activity is expected to remain light, and investors should focus on reducing risk exposure at the end of the week. mouth, get ready for the usually volatile September.

In terms of cryptocurrency, following Grayscale’s decisive victory in the appeal, mainstream analysts such as Bloomberg have increased their predictions of the probability of approval of the BTC spot ETF by the end of the year to 75%, citing “the consistency and decisiveness of the ruling exceeded expectations.” , the SEC has almost no room for maneuver. In addition, the mainstream medias coverage of the ruling was relatively negative for the SECs image, causing the SEC to lose some political focus in its anti-cryptocurrency actions.

Implied volatility for BTC and ETH has shown signs of emerging from its lull since the cryptocurrency’s mini “flash crash” a few weeks ago and the subsequent Grayscale news, although traders remain more cautious on the move; As cryptocurrency-related news becomes more positive in the second half of the year, there is hope that the worst is behind us, both spot and volatility levels have hit lows, and a better fourth quarter is on the way to end the year.

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