SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230829): Hong Kong ushers in a new era of virtual assets
China announced a series of measures to support the market this past weekend, including halving the stamp duty on securities transactions and restricting the reduction of holdings by major shareholders, in an attempt to revive stock market performance. However, due to the lack of stronger measures for the economy and the large amount of foreign investment After the sell-off, the rebound of the CSI 300 Index fell from 5.5% at the opening to only 1.2%. Capital outflows from the stock market continued, and the GEM recorded the largest intraday decline in more than two years (-5.6%); since 2004, the CSI 300 Index The index has only experienced such a large retracement three times, two of which were during the global financial crisis and one during the bursting of the A-share bubble. In these past scenarios, the market finally succeeded in trading on a 5-day and 30-day basis. A small rebound was achieved and hopefully we will see similar positive trends again in the coming weeks.
Except for China, the market is relatively calm. The UK was closed yesterday, and the US market will also be closed on Labor Day next Monday. The market continued its trend after the Jackson Hole, with the US stock market rising 0.5-1%, and with the 2-year and 5-year bond auctions As expected, the overall yield curve softened by about 3 basis points.
Although there are some important economic data to be released this week, such as JOLTS / PCE / ISM / NFP, the price of the 10-year futures straddle strategy this Friday is relatively low, only slightly more than 54 ticks, which is lower than this year’s non-farm payrolls The average of 68 ticks in the data release week (source: Citi) shows that the market is more confident in current interest rate pricing (pricing reflects a 20% chance of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates); in addition, the 2-year bond has exceeded 5% for the first time since 2006. The coupon rate, no doubt generating some buying interest, savers havent seen yields at this level in a long time.
In Hong Kong, HashKey Exchange became the first licensed retail virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong. It first opened BTC/ETH/USDT trading. Government officials and senior managers attended the opening ceremony, hoping to mark a new era of digital asset trading and development. era.
At the same time, as the market prepares for the US long weekend, the first initial deadline for BTC ETF approval is approaching. It is expected that the US SEC will continue to adopt delay tactics before the SEC and Grayscale lawsuit find a solution.
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