SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230825): Affected by the lower-than-expected U.S. economy, financial markets performed poorly
Recently, various risk assets have continued to adjust, with BTC, US stocks, and A-shares showing strong correlation for the first time in a long time. The option surfaces corresponding to the major risk assets each show different characteristics, and the digital currency option surface is still at a historical low. The U.S. stock VIX and A-share IV show an upward trend in the center of the volatility surface. The option volatility surface is a major indicator that reflects the direction of liquidity. The different correlations presented by the option surfaces of different risk assets imply the differentiation of liquidity.
Although the performance exceeded expectations, with profit taking and the market being cautious about the upcoming Jackson Hole,Nvidia shares down nearly 10% from overnight highs, the SPX index fell on 11 of the 14 trading days in August, with a cumulative decline of 4.8% this month, while the Nasdaq index has fallen nearly 7% since the end of July. Yesterday, technology and consumer stocks dragged the SPX down 1.4%.Nvidias return from highs drives tech stocks lower, while consumer stocks fall as U.S. spending (finally) slows and retailers warn about earnings outlook。
After a series of retailers (Macys/Dollar Tree/Foot Locker) announced negative consumer outlooks earlier this week,Nordstrom also expressed concerns about consumers finances, particularly as credit card delinquencies and theft have increased., in addition, management is cautious about spending expectations for the rest of the year and key holidays, which echoes the concerns expressed by Macys on the earnings call. Macys comments mentioned:
While we do expect delinquencies to increase... for us and the credit card industry as a whole, delinquencies are increasing... faster than expected.
Delinquency growth across all maturities accelerated after the first quarter, particularly in June and July... We expect delinquencies to rise across all maturities.
Consumers are encountering a lot of headwinds as they think about how to meet their responsibilities and debts, and we mentioned earlier credit cards, student loans, auto loans, mortgages, and in a high interest rate environment, these can create real challenges for consumers.
Yesterday, the US economic data was relatively unfriendly. Although the number of initial jobless claims (230,000 vs. 240,000 last week) was lower than expected, this was offset by a sharp 5.2% decline in durable goods orders. The stock market performed poorly and bond yields also fell. increased by about 3 basis points; in addition,Atlanta Fed GDPNow model further raises third-quarter GDP forecast to 5.9%, which adds more hawkish pressure to Powells talk at Jackson Hole today; Powell will deliver a keynote speech on the theme of Structural Changes in the Global Economy. At this time during the meeting,Both nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) returns are at the 90th percentile high since 2004Last year, Powells keynote speech was unexpectedly brief and directly pushed interest rates higher, leading to a sell-off in risk markets in the fourth quarter of last year; can the U.S. economy still be in good shape? And although interest rates have exceeded 5%, inflation and the job market have shown only minimal signs of weakness. Will the chairman give the market another punch? Stay tuned!
In terms of cryptocurrency, Nvidia’s market capitalization in August has exceeded the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, while DeFi TVL has fallen to a lower level than after the collapse of FTX; as gold prices return to above 1900, we expect cryptocurrency prices to rise in the short term will stabilize at current levels, however, ifPowell decides to raise real yields again at Jackson Hole, giving crypto prices a chance to move lower。
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