SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230817): Macro risks are reduced, and the crypto market breaks down downwards
Yesterday, risk aversion continued to rise. China Evergrande Real Estate announced that it would be investigated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected information disclosure violations, while Country Garden warned that there was significant uncertainty in the redemption of its bonds, and trading of some local bills would continue to be suspended. , China once again became the focus of the market. At the same time, protesters gathered outside Zhongrongs office to protest against the default in payment of investment products. Tencents revenue was lower than expected due to poor game sales, and its stock price once fell by nearly 4%.
In the U.S. market, signs of stronger-than-expected economic performance continue to show. New housing starts surged 3.9% month-on-month, industrial production increased 1% month-on-month, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model further revised the GDP growth forecast to 5.8% (due to favorable seasonal adjustments). Much higher than investment bank forecasts.
Strong economic data continues to put pressure on the U.S. fixed income market. The 10-year U.S. bond yield continues to rise and is about to exceed the high of last October. To make matters worse, the minutes of the July FOMC meeting have a hawkish tendency, including :
Most Fed officials see significant upside risks to inflation
Inflation risks may require further policy tightening
Officials believe there is a high degree of uncertainty as policy effects lag
U.S. stocks fell another 1% yesterday, recreating the nightmare scenario of 2022s simultaneous declines in equities and fixed income, when risk parity funds and typical 60/40 funds posted one of their worst performances ever, with August challenging for these traditional strategies. It is likely to be the worst month of the year, and their profit and loss management has undoubtedly contributed to a more comprehensive risk-off trend in the market in the past two weeks.
From a technical perspective, although we turned negative on the Nasdaq a few weeks ago, the current trend may be a bit excessive from the short-term indicators of the SPX, and the current risk reward looks more balanced, especially considering the impact on China Bearish sentiment is already the general consensus, and it may be wise to keep risk exposure lower while we wait for the market to stabilize.
With the overall macro risk sentiment declining and gold prices falling below 1900, cryptocurrency prices have finally broken downwards after a long period of consolidation. While the market continues to wait for a long time for spot ETF approval, we expect prices to continue to move higher this month. It oscillates due to fluctuations in risk sentiment, and is likely to fall further before rebounding at the end of the year.
You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web 3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: chillywzq), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends.
SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com
