SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230815): US bond yields rise, market predicts rate hike resumption by year-end.

Yesterday was a fairly quiet day for the U.S. market, with no data or events worth noting. U.S. bond yields continued to move higher. The 10-year yield challenged the high of about 4.20% after the non-farm payrolls data. The market forecast the Fed The probability of a rate hike in September remained below 10%, and the probability of a rate hike in November rose slightly to 30%.

After a difficult last week, the stock market rebounded slightly, mainly led by technology stocks that were hit hard last week; trading volumes in most asset classes except USD/CNY fell sharply.

The bearish news about China continued, with Zhongrong Trust being unable to cash out a $19 million wealth management product payment over the weekend due to liquidity issues, plus earlier concerns about Country Garden, and markedly weaker Chinese data, exacerbating FX trading Members expect further weakening of the renminbi in the next few months. The spot and option trading volumes are more than three times higher than usual. There is a slew of economic activity data to be released, as well as one-year lending rates.

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