Monera Digital | 2026年6月基金月報：宏觀壓制延續，加密市場震盪探底
- 核心觀點：2026年6月加密市場在宏觀壓力下震盪探底，BTC ETF創紀錄淨流出45億美元；Monera Digital基金逆市增長，AUM環比增6.55%至1519.48萬美元，加權APY達62.34%，並透過提升量化交易佔比增強組合穩健性。
- 關鍵要素：
- 市場受聯準會鷹派升息預期、通膨黏性地緣政治三重壓力，BTC從68,000美元跌至58,000–60,000美元區間；ETH表現更弱，ETH/BTC比率持續下探後止穩修復。
- 美國現貨BTC ETF 6月錄得創紀錄月度淨流出約45億美元，為史上最差月份；ETH ETF亦持續淨流出，資金面嚴峻。
- 後市需關注地緣政治緩和、聯準會會議及ETF資金回流；若宏觀惡化或大戶拋售，市場可能經歷恐慌性重挫。
- Monera Digital基金AUM從年初100萬美元增長至1519.48萬美元，六個月累計增幅超15倍；6月環比增長6.55%，新引入資本93.375萬美元。
- 基金實際收益率APY為28.65%，加權收益率APY達62.34%，在市場中持續創造超額回報。
- 資產配置中，主動交易佔比50.27%，量化交易佔比從26.0%大幅提升至42.86%，以增強波動市場下的對沖能力和穩健性。
1. Market Review： Macro Pressure Continues, Crypto Market Tests Lows Amidst Volatility
In June 2026, the crypto market continued to face persistent macro headwinds. Three major pressures—the Fed's hawkish policy shift (dot plot hinting at potential rate hikes in 2026), sticky inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties (US-Iran situation showing some signs of de-escalation but remaining uncertain)—collectively dominated market sentiment. Risk appetite further declined, leading to a general trend of choppy downward movement with weak market absorption capacity.
In terms of price performance, BTC initially oscillated in the $65,000–$68,000 range, then rapidly declined to test support around $58,000–$60,000, driven by sustained ETF outflows and macro headwinds, recording a significant monthly loss. ETH showed even weaker performance, with the ETH/BTC ratio continuing to drift lower and a larger decline than BTC. Towards the end of the month, the ETH/BTC ratio began to stabilize and recover. BTC dominance remained high, while altcoin liquidity was extremely weak, and total market capitalization corrected further.
On the capital flow front, US spot BTC ETFs recorded a record monthly net outflow of approximately $4.5 billion in June, marking the worst month in history. ETH ETFs also experienced sustained net outflows, with only a few trading days seeing minor inflows.
Looking ahead, the $58,000 level has shown some support characteristics after being tested multiple times. If the macro environment does not deteriorate sharply, trading opportunities in the secondary market are likely to be significantly better than in the primary market. In the short term, close attention should be paid to signals of geopolitical de-escalation, the tone of Fed meetings, and potential ETF fund reversals. In the medium term, a slow recovery driven by institutional allocation logic remains the base case. However, if the US-Iran situation escalates again, a sustained pullback in the US tech AI sector triggers broad-based selling, or large holders like MicroStrategy are forced to liquidate, the crypto market could experience a sharp panic-driven sell-off. Investment caution and risk management must remain paramount.
2. Fund Data： Steady Growth Against the Trend, AUM Continues to Climb
Against the backdrop of overall market pressure, Monera Digital's funds continued to record positive growth in June 2026, with all key core indicators performing steadily.
As of the end of June, the fund's total Assets Under Management (AUM) reached $15,194,800, a net increase of approximately $933,800 from the beginning of the month ($14,261,000). This represents a monthly growth rate of 6.55%, with new capital introduced this month amounting to $933,750.
Since the fund's inception, starting from an initial $1 million in January 2026, AUM has grown continuously for six consecutive months—exceeding $3,335,000 in February, jumping to $6,780,500 in March, surpassing $12,130,200 in April, increasing to $14,261,000 in May, and reaching a new high of $15,194,800 in June. This represents a cumulative growth of over 15 times in six months, fully demonstrating the stability of the strategy and sustained capital appeal.
In terms of returns, the fund's actual APY reached 28.65%, while the weighted APY was even higher at 62.34%, consistently delivering market-beating steady returns for investors amidst the current challenging market environment.
3. Asset Allocation： Strategic Weight Adjustments, Quantitative Trading Share Significantly Increased
This month, the fund's total asset size was $15,194,800, with the allocation structure adjusted compared to the previous month. Among the strategies, Proactive Trading had an allocation of $7,637,300, representing 50.27% of total AUM, remaining the single largest strategy. Quantitative Trading saw its allocation reach $6,513,700, accounting for 42.86%, a significant increase from 26.0% last month, making it the main highlight of this month's allocation structure change. Venture Investing remained unchanged at $1 million, accounting for 6.58%. Other Assets totaled $43,800, accounting for 0.29%, serving as a supplementary allocation.
Given the significant market volatility and rising macro uncertainty this month, the team moderately increased the weight of Quantitative Trading to enhance the portfolio's robustness and hedging capability. While the share of Proactive Trading decreased, it remains the core engine driving overall returns. The overall allocation maintained flexibility under the principle of prioritizing risk management.
4. Conclusion
Amidst the adverse conditions of a pressured crypto market and record net outflows from ETF funds in June 2026, Monera Digital's Fund, leveraging its diversified strategy allocation and strict risk management system, achieved a 6.55% month-over-month growth in AUM and a weighted APY of 62.34%, consistently generating excess returns for investors.
Looking ahead to July, the team will prioritize risk management while closely tracking ETF fund flows, signals of geopolitical de-escalation, and changes in the tone of Fed policy. We will adjust position structures in a timely manner to capture asymmetric opportunities presented at the market bottom.
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