The quarterfinals of the World Cup are about to begin. Who are the AI models predicting to advance?

Original Article: Odaily 星球日报 (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

After the World Cup quarterfinalists were determined, the real knockout stage has just begun.

France has maintained a strong contender status throughout, with consistent attacking firepower and key players stepping up at crucial moments; Morocco continues its Cinderella run, eliminating Canada 3-0 in the Round of 16, proving once again that they are not a flash in the pan. Spain has played the most solidly, with disciplined defending and dominant ball control, edging out Portugal 1-0 in the Round of 16 and keeping Cristiano Ronaldo out of the quarterfinals; Belgium, with a convincing 4-1 victory over the USA, has re-established their offensive presence.

On the other side, Norway has become the biggest surprise of this tournament. Led by Haaland, they defeated Brazil 2-1, creating the most significant upset of the knockout stage so far. England, despite a bumpy ride, managed a 3-2 narrow victory over Mexico thanks to their squad depth. Argentina’s advancement was the most dramatic, coming back from 0-2 down against Egypt to win 3-2. Switzerland dragged Colombia into a penalty shootout, securing their quarterfinal spot in typical "tough nuts to crack" fashion.

To provide some reference for predicting the upcoming four quarterfinal matches, I asked ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qianwen, and Grok respectively to predict the winner, score, and whether each match would go into extra time or penalties.

Looking at the results, the AIs were unanimous on the advancing teams for all four quarterfinals, giving a final four prediction of France, Spain, England, and Argentina. The real divergence was mainly over details like scores, extra time, and penalties.

All AIs Predict France to Advance, Morocco Unlikely to Replicate Cinderella Run

The first quarterfinal of this World Cup is France vs. Morocco, scheduled for July 10 at 4:00 AM Beijing time. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, France has a 63% win probability; draw probability is 25%; Morocco has a 14% win probability. Including extra time and penalties, France's advancement probability is 79%, while Morocco's is 22%.

This is also the quarterfinal with the least disagreement among the AI models. ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qianwen, and Grok all favor France to advance, with the only difference being whether France wins 2-0 or 2-1, and whether Morocco can score a goal.

Claude and Qianwen both predicted a 2-0 victory for France. They believe France is the team closest to a championship template in this tournament, with the front line of Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise constantly creating threats, and a midfield supported by Kanté, Tchouaméni, and Rabiot, making them more complete than Morocco on both ends. While Morocco has proven they are not just an ordinary underdog, their squad depth and individual quality still make a direct confrontation with France very difficult.

DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, and ChatGPT leaned towards a 2-1 win for France. Their rationale is that Morocco won't be easily broken down and still has chances to create threats through counter-attacks, set pieces, or wing play. However, the problem for Morocco is sustaining their defensive shape against France's attacking firepower for 90 minutes. As the game progresses into the second half, France's individual brilliance and bench depth will become increasingly apparent.

In summary, the AI models unanimously agree that France will advance in regular time, making extra time or penalties unlikely.

AIs Favor Spain More, Belgium's Counter-Attack is the Main Variable

The second quarterfinal is Spain vs. Belgium, scheduled for July 11 at 3:00 AM Beijing time. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, Spain has a 61% win probability; draw probability is 25%; Belgium has a 17% win probability. Including extra time and penalties, Spain's advancement probability is 79%, while Belgium's is 22%.

In this match, all six AI models also favor Spain to advance, but there is more disagreement regarding the match process compared to France vs. Morocco.

Claude, Qianwen, DeepSeek, and Grok all believe Spain can likely finish the job in regular time, with predicted scores clustered around 2-0 or 2-1. Their core reasoning is that Spain currently has stronger overall cohesion, with stable ball control, pressing, and defensive discipline, meaning the game's rhythm will likely be dictated by Spain.

ChatGPT's prediction was more conservative, forecasting a narrow 1-0 win for Spain. It believes this match won't be an open, attacking affair but rather a contest between "system stability" and "offensive explosiveness." Spain may not score heavily but is more likely to secure the win through ball possession, wing play variations, or a set-piece opportunity.

The only model predicting extra time and penalties was Gemini. It predicted a 1-1 draw in regular time, with no change in extra time, and Spain advancing via a penalty shootout. The key to this prediction is that if Belgium can score first on a counter-attack, Spain could be dragged into a more grueling, tense match.

The Match with the Most AI Disagreement: Haaland is England's Biggest Challenge

The third quarterfinal is Norway vs. England, scheduled for July 12 at 5:00 AM Beijing time. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, Norway has a 23% win probability; draw probability is 27%; Belgium has a 53% win probability. Including extra time and penalties, Norway's advancement probability is 36%, while England's is 66%.

Erling Haaland's presence makes this knockout game the most likely candidate for an upset among the four quarterfinals. Although all six AIs ultimately gave the advancement nod to England, the predictions were notably less certain than for the previous two matches. Norway just eliminated Brazil 2-1 in the previous round, so the question isn't "if they can cause an upset," but that they have already done so. More importantly, a player like Haaland doesn't need dominance over the entire game; one opportunity could be enough to cause England trouble.

Qianwen, DeepSeek, and Grok all believe England can probably win 2-1 in regular time. England has better squad depth, with Bellingham, Kane, Saka, and Foden all capable of deciding a match. In contrast, Norway's attack is more reliant on the connection between Haaland and Ødegaard; once that link is cut off, their offensive threat diminishes significantly.

However, Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT all explicitly considered the possibility of extra time. Claude believes England might win narrowly in regular time or could be dragged into extra time by Norway. Gemini predicts a 2-2 draw after 90 minutes, with England winning in extra time due to their bench depth. ChatGPT predicts a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes, with England winning 2-1 in extra time.

AIs Favor Argentina's Advancement, Switzerland Could Drag Match to Penalties

The fourth quarterfinal is Argentina vs. Switzerland, scheduled for July 12 at 9:00 AM Beijing time. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, Argentina has a 58% win probability; draw probability is 28%; Switzerland has a 17% win probability. Including extra time and penalties, Argentina's advancement probability is 74%, while Switzerland's is 27%.

In this match, the AIs all agreed that Argentina would advance. Unlike the predictions for France and Spain, which leaned more toward "strong team dominance," the Argentina vs. Switzerland prediction is more about a game of patience.

Qianwen and Gemini gave the most optimistic predictions, both favoring a 2-0 win for Argentina in regular time. Argentina's comeback from 0-2 down against Egypt to win 3-2 in the previous round has revitalized the team's form and morale. Against a team like Switzerland, which doesn't have outstanding attacking firepower, Argentina has a good chance to finish the match within 90 minutes, provided they minimize defensive errors.

DeepSeek and Grok were more cautious, both leaning towards a 2-1 win for Argentina. Switzerland has a stable defensive organization and strong game discipline, making them difficult to break down easily. However, Switzerland's attack lacks sustained pressure. Once Argentina scores, it will be tough for Switzerland to pull the game back into their preferred rhythm for an extended period.

Claude and ChatGPT accounted for extra time and penalties. Claude believes a team like Switzerland can easily drag Argentina into a tough battle, and the match could go to a 1-1 draw, eventually being decided by a penalty shootout. ChatGPT directly predicted an Argentina win on penalties, suggesting Switzerland has the ability to turn the match into a low-scoring, attritional affair, pushing it to a battle of goalkeepers and penalty quality.

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