SpaceX 上市首日跌破 150，華爾街集體唱多最高價 800 美元？

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Golem (@web3_golem)

SpaceX has made history again: On Tuesday, July 7, SpaceX was officially added to the Nasdaq 100 Index, becoming the fastest company ever included in the index, with a corresponding weight of approximately 1.3%. However, this historic achievement did not translate into gains for SpaceX's stock price. According to Gate US stock data, SPCX closed down over 6.8% on Tuesday at $149.47, hitting its lowest closing price since its listing. How will SPCX perform going forward? And what assessments have Wall Street institutions provided?

Index Inclusion: "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" as Support at $150 Remains Challenging

Before SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, JPMorgan estimated it would trigger at least $4.3 billion in passive fund inflows. Funds tracking the Nasdaq 100, totaling over $800 billion, would subsequently allocate passively to SpaceX.

Although this is a significant positive factor, the prospect of "entering the Nasdaq" has been hyped since SpaceX's first day of trading, and market expectations were already priced in. When the event materialized on July 7, market sentiment lacked the momentum to push the stock higher. On the other hand, the massive buying power behind the Nasdaq does not flood in on the day of inclusion; in reality, most passive fund purchases are executed ahead of July 7.

Furthermore, historical data shows that index inclusion does not necessarily constitute a sustained upward signal, and in some cases, it has marked a short-term peak.

Strategy is a typical example. On December 23, 2024, Strategy was added to the Nasdaq 100, but MSTR actually opened higher and closed lower that day, falling about 7.3% to $332.23. Thereafter, Strategy entered a sustained downtrend, with its stock price dropping to $255.43 in February 2025. The passive buying from the Nasdaq inclusion did not effectively support Strategy's stock price.

Now that the positive catalyst of index inclusion has been exhausted, the widely anticipated overhang of the stock lockup expiration in August will be magnified. SpaceX's prospectus clearly states that two days after the Q2 2026 earnings report, eligible insiders can sell up to 20% of their locked shares. If the stock price is 30% above the IPO price for five days, an additional 10% can be unlocked. 22V Research strategist Jeff Jacobson estimates that insiders could sell up to 44% of SpaceX shares by early September.

Similar to how the positive expectations of index inclusion were priced in early, the panic surrounding the stock unlock will inevitably be reflected in the price ahead of time, which is a key factor currently and in the near future suppressing SpaceX's stock price from a market sentiment perspective. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee also specifically mentioned the upcoming stock unlock in an interview, stating that he believes investors should not chase SpaceX's stock price in the short term and that taking advantage of the pullback caused by the unlock for position building is a more suitable choice.

However, at the close of U.S. stock markets on Tuesday, SpaceX was not alone in its decline. According to Gate US stock data, all three major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow down 0.25%, the S&P 500 down 0.45%, and the Nasdaq down 1.16%. AI concept stocks also broadly declined, with Astera Labs down 11.52%, Ambarella down 9.92%, Teradyne down 9.59%, and AeroVironment down 8.09%.

In comparison, under the circumstances of a broad market decline and the exhaustion of positive factors, SPCX's ability to hold near $150 without breaking its IPO price is already commendable. Meanwhile, according to OptionCharts data, SPCX's current Put-Call Ratio is 0.92, indicating that market sentiment remains neutral, without any clear bearish bias.

Additionally, a large number of call options expiring on July 10 are stacked at $160 and above for SPCX, making the $150-$155 range the main battleground between bulls and bears.

Institutions Give Collective Buy Ratings; Are There Potential Upside Catalysts for SPCX?

It is evident that both time and market sentiment are no longer on the bulls' side. Over the past month, SPCX has repeatedly tested the $150 support level. However, previously, the $150 support acted as a launching pad; now, it is purely defensive territory. Intriguingly, after the IPO quiet period ended, Wall Street institutional analysts collectively issued Buy ratings for SPCX.

As IPO underwriters, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both assigned Buy ratings to SpaceX. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a target price of $205, while Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas gave a target of $300. Additionally, Bank of America initiated coverage on SpaceX with a Buy rating and a $235 target. Citigroup set a target of $200; Bernstein rated SpaceX Outperform with a $239 target; Macquarie Group set a target of $250; Deutsche Bank, $255; JPMorgan, $225; UBS, $210; and Wells Fargo, $230.

Raymond James Financial provided the most optimistic forecast, with analyst Brian Gesuale setting a target price of $800 for SPC, believing SpaceX will become "one of the most iconic industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century."

However, these institutional ratings are mainly bullish on SpaceX's long-term value, such as its developments in rocket launches, Starlink, and AI-powered space data centers. In the short term, especially before the stock unlock wave in August, what potential catalysts can SpaceX rely on to keep its stock price from falling below $150 and heading straight towards the IPO price of $135? The foreseeable potential positive catalysts include the following:

First, relying on a potential endorsement from President Donald Trump. On July 7, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell and her husband announced their participation in the Invest America plan, donating a portion of their SpaceX shares to Trump accounts for over 2 million American children. The donation is estimated to be approximately 2 million SpaceX shares, with a total value of about $325 million. Trump has previously publicly called on Elon Musk to donate SpaceX stock to the "Trump Account." As a businessman who understands value exchange, once SpaceX shares are in the "Trump Account," he might also "talk up" SpaceX's stock, similar to his endorsements of Micron and Dell.

Second, SpaceX's Starship flight test planned for July 14. The current target launch date for Starship's 13th flight test (Flight 13) is set for Tuesday, July 14, 2026, with a backup date of July 15. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued an operational advisory confirming a NET (No Earlier Than) date of July 14. Rocket launches always capture public interest. As the world's leading aerospace company, every SpaceX launch attracts global attention. If Flight 13 is successfully completed, SpaceX's aerospace narrative could briefly reignite "fan" enthusiasm, potentially pushing the stock price higher. While the community and tracking sites generally believe July 14 is the primary launch target, delays of a few days to weeks are possible due to technical readiness, weather, or other factors.

Ultimately, however, what investors are most eagerly anticipating might be whether Elon Musk himself will do something to "rescue" the stock price.