散户瘋狂買入，機構上調預期，SPCX後市怎麼走？

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Golem (@web3_golem)

Last Friday, SpaceX closed its first trading day at $160.95, giving it a market cap of $2.1 trillion. Although SpaceX still made history with the largest IPO in US stock market history, this result did not meet all expectations compared to the market sentiment built up before the listing. Research firm CFRA even gave SPCX a "Sell" rating, suggesting Musk's "Mars story" is not resonating as hoped. (Related reading: After SpaceX's Debut: Is a $2.1 Trillion Market Cap Still Worth Chasing?)

Facing these market concerns, SPCX surprised everyone with its rise at the US market open this Monday. According to Gate's US stock market data, SPCX rallied continuously after the open, eventually closing at $192.5, a gain of 19.6%. The closing price was also the day's high, pushing the market cap to $2.519 trillion, making SpaceX the 8th largest company globally by market cap. But market sentiment is far from fading. According to Hyperliquid data, SPCX's pre-market price has already risen above $214, making it highly likely that SPCX will continue Monday's uptrend after the US market opens on Tuesday, potentially surpassing the 7th-ranked Amazon in market cap.

US-Iran Sign Memorandum of Understanding, SpaceX Retail Frenzy Continues

On a macroeconomic level, the memorandum of understanding (MoU) reached between the US and Iran this week brought significant positive news to the US stock market. The market generally expects that with geopolitical tensions stabilizing, global stock markets could usher in a new round of gains, with SpaceX being one of the beneficiaries.

On June 15, Trump announced the agreement with Iran, stating that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. Unlike many previous instances of unilateral rhetoric, this agreement was also acknowledged by Iran. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi confirmed the same day that the text of the US-Iran MoU had been finalized and would be formally signed in Switzerland this Friday (June 19).

The MoU was further confirmed by the Iranian president. Additionally, US Vice President Vance stated that the agreement between the US and Iran was signed electronically over the weekend, indicating the terms are already in effect and reducing the likelihood of either side backing out. Following the news, the US stock market opened higher overall, with the Dow Jones closing up 0.92%, the S&P 500 up 1.65%, and the Nasdaq up 3.07%.

Morgan Stanley believes that a long-term agreement between the US and Iran, which would lower oil prices and ease inflationary pressures, is shifting the US stock market from a "narrow leadership" rally to a healthier, broad-based advance. The upward momentum in US stocks may no longer be confined to the tech sector but could gradually spread to a wider range of cyclical industries.

From a market sentiment perspective, SpaceX remains the most sought-after stock by retail investors. According to VandaTrack data, on June 16 (US local time), SpaceX saw net retail purchases of approximately $93.8 million, accounting for about 73% of the total net retail inflow into all US stocks that day. This means that for every $4 of incremental retail money flowing into the US stock market, roughly $3 flowed into SpaceX.

With such strong market demand for SPCX, SpaceX's underwriters exercised the IPO's over-allotment option (Greenshoe mechanism), purchasing an additional 83.33 million shares. This increased the total number of IPO shares to 638,888,888 Class A common shares, also raising the total financing scale of this issuance to $85.7 billion. This scale surpasses the over-allotment arrangements of almost all technology company IPOs on record.

However, despite this, reports indicate that in this SpaceX IPO subscription, most qualified US retail investors only received about one share. Therefore, under the extreme supply shortage caused by the low float, concentrated buying by retail investors can significantly drive up the stock price.

What's the Outlook for SPCX?

Zerohedge: Options Listing Could Push the Stock Price to $400

On June 16, influential financial media outlet Zerohedge published an article suggesting that once SPCX options begin trading, the stock price could rise to $400 due to a gamma squeeze effect, surpassing Nvidia.

A Gamma Squeeze is essentially an upward price spiral triggered by options market makers being forced to buy the underlying stock to hedge their positions. SpaceX has an extremely low float (4.2%) and incredibly high retail buying enthusiasm. Retail investors who haven't secured SPCX shares might turn to buying relatively cheaper call options. If a massive influx of capital aggressively buys call options, market makers, to hedge their risk, would be forced to continuously buy SPCX shares, pushing the stock price higher and creating a positive feedback loop.

The surge of GameStop (GME) in 2021 is one of the classic examples of this effect.

Oppenheimer: SPCX Will Continue to Outperform the Market

On June 15, before the US market opened, Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan initiated coverage on SpaceX with an "Outperform" rating and a short-term price target of $190. After the US market opened on Monday, SPCX closed at $192.5, closely matching Oppenheimer's target.

Timothy Horan is a 4.70-star analyst at Oppenheimer, primarily covering tech, communications, and telecom. According to TipRanks data, his prediction success rate is 58.82%. He believes SpaceX is "the only fully vertically integrated AI company," controlling capital, data, large models, hardware, manufacturing, and engineering talent, and should not be viewed merely as a traditional aerospace enterprise.

Peter H. Diamandis: Past Idle Funds Went to Bitcoin, Now They Go to SpaceX

On June 14, renowned entrepreneur, XPRIZE founder, and early SpaceX investor Peter H. Diamandis wrote on Substack that SpaceX is "the railroad to orbit," set to usher in a multi-planetary human civilization and create immense wealth, much like the railroads opened up the American West in the 19th century. He predicts that within the next year, SpaceX and Tesla will merge, becoming the first $100 trillion company.

At the same time, he stated that for the past decade, whenever he freed up capital from other trades, he would put it into Bitcoin. But now, whenever he has idle capital, he invests in SpaceX. While he expects the stock price to dip when locked-up shareholders are eventually able to sell, and some take profits, he emphasizes that his investment in SpaceX is not about chasing quarterly stock gains but about advancing the off-world economy.

Brad Gerstner: SpaceX is a Must-Buy, Must-Hold Asset for Institutional Investors

On June 16, prominent Silicon Valley investor Brad Gerstner described SpaceX on the latest episode of the BG2 podcast as a must-buy, must-hold asset for institutional investors. His reasoning is that the company sits at the intersection of two major trends: the space economy and the expansion of AI computing power.

Gerstner said that bears on SpaceX focus on the company's revenue from last year and investment banks' projections for significant revenue growth over the next three years, questioning how many companies can achieve multi-fold expansion in three to four years. However, he argues that if investors believe in the trajectory towards AGI, they must accept the premise that the global computing power required will far exceed current market expectations. Combining this judgment with SpaceX's core business, he finds it difficult to identify another company or entrepreneur offering a more direct bet on the future.