BIT 投研：2022年會重演嗎？世界盃或成為比特幣熊市終點

The current market is in the final stages of this Bitcoin bear market. The A-B-C corrective structure proposed in early 2026 is progressing as expected: the A wave dropped to the $60,000–$69,000 range, the B wave rebounded to the $80,000–$90,000 range, peaking temporarily around $83,000. The market has now entered the C wave adjustment phase.

Looking at sentiment indicators, the Fear and Greed Index has retreated to historically low levels, showing high similarity to the bottom structure of the 2022 bear market. Although the current situation is closer to a "tradable bottom," cyclical indicators have not yet issued a definitive reversal signal. During this process, market focus is shifting from short-term volatility to the conditions for forming a bottom and potential macro catalysts for the next bull market.

Bear Market Enters Final Stage: $50,000–$55,000 May Become a Key Zone

From a technical structure perspective, the top pattern in 2025 is highly similar to that of 2021. Both cycles experienced a rapid surge, a breakdown below the 21-week moving average, a phase of corrective rebound, and then a renewed weakening. Historical experience suggests that genuine bottoms often form with declining volume and narrowing consolidation ranges, rather than through rapid reversals.

Currently, the Fear and Greed Index is at historical lows, stochastic indicators are in deeply oversold territory, and Bitcoin's price has approached the region two standard deviations below the weekly moving average. The area around $61,576 may provide temporary support. According to the cyclical analysis framework, the ultimate market low has not yet appeared.

Combining this with Elliott Wave theory, since the bear market began in October 2025, Bitcoin has followed a typical A-B-C corrective structure. As the B wave rally ended after reaching $83,000 in mid-May, the current C wave decline is unfolding. The target zone may point towards $50,000, with the low expected to occur around the FIFA World Cup period (June 11 to July 19, 2026). Overall, the $50,000–$55,000 range could become the core bottom region of this bear market.

Peak Inflation or Key Catalyst for Next Bull Run

From a macro perspective, the current market environment shares similarities with 2022, with inflation remaining the primary factor suppressing risk asset performance. In the previous cycle, the peak of inflation served as a crucial turning point for the market, and a similar macro path may reappear in this cycle.

Currently, Bitcoin's realized price is approximately $54,591. This metric is seen as an important reference for judging when the market enters an undervalued zone. Historical experience shows that while the price may briefly fall below this level, it typically does not stay there for long. Meanwhile, cyclical indicators have not yet released a confirmation signal for the bottom, and the actual low may require another 1 to 3 months to be confirmed.

If the price completes its bottoming process and reclaims the 21-week moving average, coupled with a positive reversal in monthly cyclical indicators, it would likely confirm the start of a new upward cycle. Until then, the market will remain in a bottom-building phase.

Overall, this bear market is approaching its end. The A-B-C corrective structure, cyclical indicators, and the macro backdrop all point in the same direction: the $50,000–$55,000 range likely represents the fair value zone of this bear market, while the realized price of $54,591 serves as a significant long-term reference level. Although the exact timing of the low depends on inflation trends and confirmation from cyclical indicators, history suggests that true bottoms often do not present themselves as obvious buying opportunities. As inflationary pressures gradually ease and cyclical signals improve, the next bull market could very well begin near the $50,000–$55,000 zone.

The above viewpoints are partly from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.