世界杯預測大戰打響，各大交易所如何爭奪這波賽事流量？

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)

The World Cup is approaching, and the prediction market has already heated up.

With over a month of matches and 104 games, from the group stage to the knockout rounds, different teams take the field every day, sparking new discussions daily.

For this reason, the prediction market giants Polymarket and Kalshi have already staked their claims ahead of the World Cup. Polymarket has launched a World Cup section but has not yet set up a separate prize pool, likely still relying on LPs for incentives; Kalshi, while offering a $1 million prize pool for championship predictions, requires US KYC for participation.

World Cup prediction interface on Polymarket

But the excitement in the World Cup prediction market isn't limited to Polymarket and Kalshi. As the event draws near, major exchanges are also jumping on the prediction bandwagon. Below, Odaily Planet Daily will guide you through the World Cup prediction activities of various major exchanges.

Binance: predict.fun Takes the Lead for World Cup Predictions, Dual Events with Total Prize Pool Exceeding $2.3 Million

Among the World Cup prediction market activities announced so far, the reward scale within the Binance ecosystem through predict.fun is the highest.

It's worth noting that both the Binance main site and Binance Wallet have opened the door to probabilistic trading for users by integrating the third-party on-chain prediction market platform, predict.fun. Consequently, Binance's World Cup prediction market activities also revolve around predict.fun.

World Cup activity interface on the Binance main site prediction section

Specifically, predict.fun's World Cup activities are divided into two parts. First, the "Predict Cup" event launched on the predict.fun platform, with a total prize pool of $2 million. Second, Binance Wallet, in partnership with predict.fun, has launched the Football Season PNL Trading Competition, with a prize pool of $300,000.

The "Predict Cup" event is more focused on the full World Cup schedule (official link: https://predict.fun/world-cup). Users can select up to 5 supported teams and make predictions on markets such as match outcomes, scores, and goal counts to accumulate Fan Points and share in the prize pool. The reward a user receives depends on their point ranking at the end of each round and is distributed after that round concludes. The top-ranked player always receives 15% of the round's prize pool, increasing to 20% for the final. Here is the breakdown of the available prize pool for each round:

• Group Stage: $70,000 per group;
• Round of 32: $25,000 per match;
• Round of 16: $30,000 per match;
• Quarter-finals: $40,000 per match;
• Semi-finals: $50,000 per match;
• Final: $260,000.

"Predict Cup" Prize Pool Distribution

Binance Wallet's $300,000 PNL Trading Competition with predict.fun (pinned on the Binance Wallet official X account) focuses more on trading skill ranking. Users must register via the activity page and trade on the Binance main site prediction market or in the World Cup category of the predict.fun dApp within Binance Wallet. The final ranking is based on the realized PnL generated during the event period. The top 500 users on the leaderboard who meet the conditions will receive rewards, with the champion receiving $50,000.

Prediction market activity interface on Binance Wallet web version

OKX: Earn Points for Free to Make Predictions, Prize Pool Cap of 16.6 BTC

Unlike Binance, OKX's World Cup activities are not based on a third-party prediction market but on its own in-house platform. Users do not need to invest funds directly to participate in predictions; instead, they earn points by completing tasks and use those points for World Cup match predictions.

In terms of barriers to entry, OKX's approach leans towards "free predictions + task incentives." Users can earn points by registering for the event, daily check-ins, predicting matches, completing new user tasks, inviting friends, and then use these points for World Cup predictions.

Regarding the prize pool, OKX uses a dynamic unlocking mechanism. Currently, with nearly 80,000 participants, the prize pool stands at 4 BTC (worth approximately $247,000). When the number of participants exceeds 400,000, the prize pool reaches its cap of 16.6 BTC (worth approximately $1.02 million). Specifically, users can earn points in five main ways:

• Predict World Cup matches to earn points;
• Register for the event to get a lump sum of points;
• New users who complete tasks and register get a lump sum of points;
• Invite friends who complete new user tasks to earn a lump sum of points;
• Daily check-in to earn points.

OKX Prediction Section World Cup Activity

Bybit: Trade to Earn Points, Points to Predict Matches, Max Prize Pool of $1 Million

Bybit's World Cup event, called Football Season 2026, revolves around trading tasks and football match predictions, with a maximum total prize pool of $1 million.

The event uses a "trade to earn points, use points for predictions" mechanism. Users first earn Points by completing specific trading tasks, then use these Points to predict football match outcomes. If the prediction is correct, Points are multiplied according to the corresponding community multiplier; if incorrect, the Points are deducted.

The event is divided into three phases: Group Stage, Knockout Stage, and Final, with separate settlements for each phase. Users who accumulate at least 30 net Points in a single phase are eligible to share in that phase's prize pool. Rewards are distributed proportionally based on the net Points of eligible users.

Bybit World Cup Prediction Activity Interface

Gate: Launches World Cup Section and "Green Pitch Prophet" $500,000 Event

Currently, Gate has launched the "Green Pitch Prophet" World Cup limited-time event. During the event, users who register and complete tasks related to spot, futures, CFD, VIP upgrades, and other business lines can claim prediction market experience vouchers and quiz coupons. These can be used in the designated football prediction markets on Gate Polymarket to participate in quiz tasks, competing for rewards like points leaderboard prizes, champion ultimate predictions, VIP jersey gift boxes, live draw prizes, and more.

The total prize pool for the event exceeds $500,000, including prediction market experience vouchers, USDT rewards, trading rebates, and limited-edition football-themed merchandise.

Gate Green Pitch Prophet Activity Interface

Bitget: Main Activity on Bitget Wallet, Launching a $200,000 Event

Bitget's World Cup initiatives are primarily focused on Bitget Wallet. On the product side, Bitget Wallet has integrated Polymarket's World Cup prediction market, allowing users to participate in on-chain predictions directly within the wallet and access auxiliary information like AI analysis and smart money tracking.

Centered around this entry point, Bitget Wallet has launched the 2026 FIFA World Cup Prediction Market Event, with a total prize pool of $200,000. The specific activities include:

• World Cup Champion Prediction, with a $20,000 prize pool. Users select the team they believe will win the championship and earn points by inviting friends. Users who correctly predict the champion will share the prize pool based on their points. This activity has a low barrier to entry as no trading is required;
• 20-Day Prediction Winning Streak Event, with an $80,000 prize pool. Users participate in designated prediction market trades daily during the event period. Upon meeting the requirements, they can earn rewards, up to $10 per day and a maximum of $200 for the entire event;
• Social Watch Party, with a $50,000 prize pool. Users joining the Bitget Wallet watch channel can participate in random red packets and exclusive airdrops during live match broadcasts;
• First Trade Protection, with a $50,000 prize pool. First-time users of the prediction market who incur losses can receive compensation from Bitget Wallet. This offer is limited and available on a first-come, first-served basis.