BIT 投研：如果跟上納斯達克，比特幣本應接近14萬美元

The current market is in a phase of macro-adjustment dominated by a repricing of inflation. If Bitcoin were able to consistently track the Nasdaq, its current price would theoretically be close to $140,000. However, since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly. The core reason behind this lies in the resurgence of US inflation and the subsequent reversal of market expectations regarding the interest rate cut path.

Latest data shows that the US CPI has rebounded from 2.4% to 3.8%, while the PPI has risen from 2.9% to 6.0%. Concurrently, interest rate markets are gradually pricing out some of the rate cuts expected for 2026. For Bitcoin, the liquidity easing expectations that previously supported its price are beginning to weaken. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in Iran have pushed oil prices up by approximately 40% since late February 2026, with rising energy costs further reinforcing market concerns about inflation.

Based on current pricing, the market still tends to view this bout of inflation as a temporary pressure disturbance. However, as the linkages between energy, interest rates, and risk appetite strengthen, the market is starting to reassess the risk that high-interest-rate environments could persist for longer. In this process, Bitcoin's performance has begun to significantly lag behind technology stocks, which can benefit from nominal inflation.

Inflation Repricing: Why Bitcoin Struggles to Benefit from a High-Inflation Environment

Most investors often equate "monetary expansion" with "inflation," but the two actually correspond to entirely different market phases. Over the past few years, the key driver of Bitcoin's rise has been loose liquidity and rate cut expectations, not inflation itself. In December 2022, the BIT model was the first to indicate that price pressures would slow down markedly and foreshadow that central bank policies might subsequently pivot towards signaling rate cuts. This also marked the crucial starting point for the rally in tech stocks and Bitcoin from 2023 to 2025.

The problem arises when inflation genuinely begins to re-emerge, the market logic shifts. Even without actual rate hikes, just the expectation of "rates remaining higher for longer" is sufficient to trigger a repricing of Bitcoin. As a classic long-duration asset, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to the interest rate path. Once rate cut expectations are withdrawn, its valuation tends to come under pressure.

Furthermore, unlike stocks, Bitcoin cannot structurally benefit in a certain inflationary environment. Stocks may benefit not only from rising nominal corporate revenues but also potentially from a reduction in the real burden of debt. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has no debt to be diluted by inflation, nor does it have cash flows that can expand with inflation. Therefore, it finds it difficult to directly benefit from this rebound in inflation. This also explains the recent marked divergence between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin.

From Energy Shocks to Interest Rate Constraints: The Market Reassesses the Liquidity Path

The real issue the market is currently focused on is not just "whether inflation is rising again," but whether high inflation will force the Federal Reserve to keep rates elevated for a longer period. The BIT model predicts the US CPI could even rise further to 6.0% in the future. If this scenario materializes, Bitcoin could experience periodic pullbacks surrounding each future CPI and PPI release.

Meanwhile, while the crude oil futures curve suggests oil prices will gradually decline in the future, it is difficult for them to fall back to the pre-conflict level of around $63 in the short term. The market has already priced in a long-term premium of about 15% into oil prices, reflecting genuine supply bottlenecks. Starting from the current oil price of around $101, the market expects crude prices to fall back to $89 by September 2026, decline to $80 by January 2027, and further drop to $73 by January 2028.

Beyond geopolitical and energy factors, the expansion of AI infrastructure may also be altering the inflation path the market has become accustomed to. Data center construction, electricity demand, and infrastructure capital expenditure are continuously adding to energy pressures. This implies that inflation could remain above target levels for longer than the market previously anticipated. In such an environment, tech stocks can benefit from order growth and improved earnings expectations, whereas Bitcoin is more susceptible to suppression from a high-interest-rate environment.

Overall, the core of this market shift is not that Bitcoin's long-term thesis has been broken, but that the market is reassessing the interest rate and liquidity paths in the wake of resurging inflation. In the short term, a high-inflation environment may continue to suppress Bitcoin's performance, causing it to periodically underperform the Nasdaq. However, this does not signal a bearish turn for the market; more accurately, it merely slows down Bitcoin's upward trajectory. As the market begins to reprice expectations for future liquidity easing, Bitcoin could regain support.

The above viewpoints are partly from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.