警报拉滿：日本央行加息25bp在即，美股、加密重現2024式閃崩？

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng 888 )

According to Nikkei, The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise its short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0% at its monetary policy meeting on June 15-16, marking the highest policy rate level since 1995. Currently, market pricing indicates an extremely high probability of a rate hike, with the probability of a "25bp (basis point) hike" on PolyMarket surging from 25% in early April to 98%.

With the BoJ rate hike imminent, a large number of investors engaged in yen carry trades may be forced to sell overseas assets, convert back to yen, and repay loans, triggering a chain reaction that could amplify volatility in global risk assets—the August 2024 flash crash serves as a classic example, where a sharp yen surge caused a steep global stock market decline and Bitcoin plunged nearly $20,000 in a single day, a maximum drop of 15%.

Odaily will analyze the macroeconomic background and transmission mechanism of the BoJ's rate hike, and focus on assessing its risk impact on AI tech stocks and cryptocurrencies for readers' reference.

1. Inflation Risk Drives BoJ Rate Hike

Over the past two years, hawkish voices within the BoJ have grown stronger, ultimately leading to the end of its 17-year negative interest rate policy in March 2024, raising the policy rate from -0.1% to a range of 0% to 0.1%, marking the first rate hike in this cycle. In July 2024, the BoJ raised rates again by 15bp to 0.25% and announced a gradual tapering of bond purchases; in January and December 2025, rates were hiked by 25bp each time, reaching 0.75%; the first three meetings of 2026 saw no changes. Below is a summary of the BoJ's rate hikes across meetings:

After maintaining rates unchanged for six months, why is the BoJ eager to start a new round of rate hikes? This hike stems mainly from two factors.

Firstly, energy shocks and imported inflation pressure. With oil price volatility triggered by conflicts in the Middle East earlier this year, Japan, as a country heavily reliant on imported energy, has seen significant increases in import costs. The Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) rose 6.3% year-on-year in May, the fastest pace since 2023, with petroleum products up 9.6% and utilities up 8.5%. The BoJ expects core CPI for fiscal year 2026 to rise to 2.5-3.0%, well above its 2% target.

Secondly, yen weakness exacerbates imported inflation. The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to hover around elevated levels of 158-160, nearing historically extreme weak territory. The sharp depreciation of the yen directly weakens the purchasing power of Japanese businesses for imports, leading to a significant rise in the cost of importing commodities like energy and raw materials, further pushing up domestic prices. Although Japan's Ministry of Finance has intervened in the foreign exchange market multiple times, the effects are relatively limited and unsustainable. This situation is forcing the BoJ to tighten monetary policy (i.e., raise rates) at its June meeting to prevent inflation expectations from spiraling out of control.

In a speech on June 3, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda clearly shifted towards an anti-inflation narrative, emphasizing that if upside risks to prices outweigh downside risks to the economy, the pros and cons of raising rates must be discussed.

Reuters, citing three sources familiar with the matter, reported that unless the Middle East conflict escalates sharply, the BoJ will raise rates in June and may slow the pace of bond tapering to maintain market stability. Bloomberg and institutions like ING also maintain a similar assessment, expecting the BoJ to raise rates by a total of 50bp in 2026.

This series of shifts marks Japan's transition from the "world's last lender" towards a normalizing central bank, posing a direct challenge to global assets that rely on cheap yen financing.

2. Yen Carry Trade Unwinding, Liquidity Tightening Persists

The Bank of Japan's long-term ultra-loose monetary policy has made the yen carry trade a significant component of global liquidity over the past decade. Investors borrow yen at near-zero interest rates to invest in high-yield assets such as U.S. stocks, tech stocks, emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies, earning interest rate differentials and capital gains.

The BoJ's current rate hike will directly increase the cost of yen financing and may trigger yen appreciation (USD/JPY decline), forcing leveraged investors to unwind positions, creating a positive feedback loop: Yen appreciation leads to larger exchange losses → Financing costs rise → Investors are forced to deleverage → Mass selling of risk assets → Further asset price declines → More stop-loss orders triggered → Unwinding pressure intensifies.

Historically, every signal of policy tightening by the BoJ has triggered significant market volatility.

On July 31, 2024, the BoJ raised rates by 15bp to 0.25% and announced gradual tapering, which, combined with weak U.S. employment data, triggered severe global market turmoil. At that time, both of South Korea's major stock indices (KOSPI and KOSDAQ) plummeted and triggered circuit breakers; the Japanese stock market crashed, with the Nikkei 225 plunging 12.4% in a single day and accumulating losses of over 20% in a week, its worst performance since 1987; global stock markets fell in sympathy, with U.S. stocks and tech stocks adjusting synchronously, and the VIX fear index spiking. Crypto was also heavily impacted, with Bitcoin and ETH dropping over 30% in just one week and leverage liquidations surging.

According to Morgan Stanley, although a significant number of positions have been gradually unwound since 2024, there are still approximately $500 billion in outstanding yen-funded positions in the market. While the market has partially priced in some risks, these positions still pose a significant hazard. Morgan Stanley warns that if the yen appreciates rapidly, it could trigger a chain of unwinding events during periods of thin liquidity, particularly impacting highly leveraged assets.

J.P. Morgan's Global Head of Market Strategy, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, and FX Strategist Meera Chandan both pointed out that the policy divergence between the BoJ and the Fed will exacerbate the instability of carry trade unwinding, potentially leading to a revaluation of global risk assets.

3. Global Risk Assets Hit, U.S. Stocks and Crypto Spared None

The AI-driven tech boom was the main theme for U.S. stocks in the first half of 2026, with chip stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom, along with hyperscale cloud service providers, leading the Nasdaq to repeated record highs.

However, entering June, the market experienced significant rotation and pullback. Notably, on June 5, U.S. stocks saw their sharpest single-day decline of 2026 so far. The Nasdaq fell 4.18%, its largest single-day drop since April 2025; the S&P 500 fell 2.64%, ending a nine-week winning streak; the Dow fell 1.35%; and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged over 10%, with AI core stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, and Marvell leading the decline. (Recommended reading: "Nasdaq Falls 4.2% in a Single Day, Does 'Black Friday' Pop the U.S. Stock Bubble?")

The U.S. stock correction has macro factors like geopolitical tensions and Fed policy uncertainty, but the potential impact of the BoJ's rate hike remains an undeniable factor.

Firstly, tightening liquidity will directly hit high-valuation growth stocks. AI companies have massive capital expenditure needs and are highly dependent on cheap financing. The unwinding of the yen carry trade will reduce global risk appetite capital inflows, with high-beta tech stocks bearing the brunt. Semiconductor leaders like Nvidia, Broadcom, and hyperscalers like Meta and Microsoft are highly valuation-sensitive and vulnerable to selling pressure. Investing.com analysis points out that high-valuation growth sectors are most sensitive to changes in global liquidity, and once carry trade unwinding begins, rapid deleveraging often follows.

Secondly, rising energy costs will significantly compress AI profit margins. The Middle East conflict has pushed up oil prices, leading to a sharp increase in electricity and cooling costs for data centers. This, combined with the BoJ's rate hike, creates a "stagflationary" macro environment that severely tests the sustainability of the AI business model.

In his latest article, "Reality Test," BitMex founder Arthur Hayes explicitly warns: "Energy reality is testing the market's current 'dreaming' state." High oil prices not only raise operational costs but could also slow the growth of enterprise token usage, further weighing on AI-related revenue expectations.

Lastly, there is the supply shock of giant IPOs and political/regulatory risks. Giants like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI plan to go public intensively in the second half of 2026, with valuations often at hundreds of times sales, and lock-up expirations will bring massive supply pressure. Concurrently, Trump might turn against AI for the midterm elections, increasing regulatory uncertainty.

Cryptocurrencies, as the highest-beta risk assets globally, face an even more challenging outlook. On one hand, the yen rate hike raises financing costs, directly increasing the cost of global leveraged trading and forcing large-scale unwinding of crypto leverage positions. On the other hand, competing for liquidity with AI, AI capital expenditures have already absorbed a large amount of market funds, leaving crypto lagging, and the BoJ's action will further tighten marginal liquidity.

Yahoo Finance analyst Lockridge Okoth stated that the 98% probability of a rate hike could trigger the next liquidity shock for Bitcoin. Investing.com analysis notes that yen appreciation and BTC weakening are often highly synchronized, serving as a classic signal of rising global risk aversion.

Arthur Hayes has also emphasized in multiple analyses that the dynamics of the yen carry trade remain a key variable affecting Bitcoin liquidity, reminding investors to watch for short-term liquidity shocks triggered by policy signals. In a recent article, Arthur Hayes stressed the need to be wary of the combined impact of short-term energy costs and monetary policy risks; BTC/ETH may adjust in line with risk assets in the short term, with the long-term outlook depending on the resumption of liquidity.

Conclusion:

The renewed fear of a BoJ rate hike is not an isolated event but a signal of tightening global liquidity. This is particularly concerning given the current combination of multiple factors: Middle East geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices, AI capital expenditure consuming liquidity, and Fed policy uncertainty, further compressing the buffer space.

For investors, in the short term, global risk assets—especially high-leverage, high-valuation sectors (AI tech stocks and cryptocurrencies)—may face significant correction pressure, with volatility expected to rise markedly. High vigilance is required, and attention must be paid to leverage risks.