Chỉ còn một bước cuối cùng, nhưng Đạo luật Clarity đang vướng mắc ở đâu?

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Azuma (@azuma_eth)

With only a few working days left before the U.S. Congress enters its summer recess (expected to begin August 7), time is running out for the "Digital Asset Market Structure Act" (hereinafter referred to as the Clarity Act) to pass the Senate.

Last week, the White House agreed to include an "ethics provision" in the Clarity Act aimed at restricting the President, Vice President, members of Congress, and other federal officials from profiting from digital assets while in office. This move was widely interpreted by the market as a signal of compromise from Trump and the Republican Party, indicating a willingness to reach consensus with Democratic senators on ethics—the last major point of contention.

However, as details of the Clarity Act amendments were released, the market realized the situation is far more complex than initially imagined.

Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn posted over the weekend, stating that the Clarity Act has reached the final "yard line." Like in American football, this last yard could be the toughest on the field, representing a political tug-of-war where every inch is contested... Given the limited time remaining and strong opposition from Democratic senators involved in negotiations over the current ethics provision wording, he has lowered the probability forecast for the bill's passage in 2026 to 30%.

The Greatest Disagreement Lies in the Details of the Ethics Provision

In his post, Alex Thorn summarized that current disagreements on the Clarity Act exist across multiple areas, including developer protections, DeFi regulatory boundaries, stablecoin yield restrictions, CFTC registration mechanisms, and newly added enforcement clauses.

Yet the prevailing consensus in the market is that the biggest obstacle truly hindering the bill's progress remains the ethics provision, which was once interpreted as a sign of retreat by Trump and the GOP.

According to the latest Senate consolidated text, the Clarity Act spans 616 pages. The newly added ethics provision content primarily restricts the President, Vice President, members of Congress, and other senior federal officials from engaging in digital asset-related activities. This includes prohibiting these officials and their spouses from issuing or promoting digital assets while in office, restricting the listing of such assets on regulated platforms, requiring disclosure of interests, and introducing a blind trust mechanism. Additionally, the clause stipulates that enforcement authority lies with the Department of Justice (DOJ) and will automatically expire on January 20, 2029, at the end of Trump's term.

The issue is that Democrats believe the current version of the ethics provision still has significant shortcomings.

• First, Democrats argue that vesting enforcement authority solely with the DOJ lacks sufficient independence. Since the DOJ is part of the executive branch, and the current Acting Attorney General, Todd Blanche, also served as Trump's former personal attorney, the effectiveness of internal oversight is questionable when the restrictions target the President or senior executive officials. Therefore, Democrats demand that enforcement authority be transferred to independent inspectors general.
• Second, the automatic expiration clause in 2029 has also drawn strong criticism from Democrats. This date coincides precisely with the end of Trump's current presidential term, meaning that after Trump leaves office, successors would have no legal basis to investigate his past actions. Democrats argue that if the Clarity Act aims to establish a long-term regulatory framework for digital assets, the ethics standards should also be permanent, rather than terminating with Trump's presidency.
• Additionally, Democrats worry that the current scope of restrictions is still too limited. The existing version primarily targets activities like directly issuing or promoting digital assets but lacks clear limits on indirect participation in crypto benefits through affiliated companies, family members, or other means. Especially considering that several of Trump's sons are deeply involved in the cryptocurrency industry, questions remain about whether the current version's coverage is sufficient.

Senator Elizabeth Warren, a consistent and vocal critic of the bill, last week issued a formal statement attacking the "DOJ-only enforcement" mechanism in the ethics provision, claiming the bill "should be rejected upon arrival."

More impactful on vote counting is that seven Democratic senators who have been negotiating with Republicans (Sens. Mark Warner, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, and Raphael Warnock) also issued a joint statement, stating that the current text "falls short of expectations."

On the Republican side, there appears to be no sign of further concession in response to the strong Democratic opposition. White House digital assets advisory board executive director Patrick Witt responded firmly, stating that the President has already made a historic concession, yet Democrats remain unsatisfied—"You can't hit two home runs with one swing."

How Much Time Is Left in the Window?

Early this morning, Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Clarity Act would be temporarily set aside to prioritize the confirmation of government official nominations and the Russia sanctions bill. Additionally, the Senate will be occupied Tuesday and Wednesday this week with the funeral of the late Senator Lindsey Graham.

This means that time available for advancing the Clarity Act before the summer recess has been further compressed. Current market expectations are that the Clarity Act may not be voted on until as early as next week, the final days before the Senate recess.

Former Senate staffer Anne Kelley also posted on X today, noting that under Senate rules, once cloture is invoked on a significant contested bill, that bill becomes the Senate's top priority—making it difficult for the Senate to simultaneously advance another major contested piece of legislation until consideration of amendments, a second cloture vote, and up to 30 hours of debate are completed.

This means that the Clarity Act not only faces its own internal challenge of resolving disagreements in time but also must compete for limited Senate floor time against other contested bills like the Russia sanctions bill, budget bills, and the SAVE Act.

This is why, despite market hopes that the Clarity Act could cross the finish line before the recess, an increasing number of Washington observers are lowering their expectations.

For the crypto industry, this long legislative negotiation has entered its final stage. The regulatory framework is "one step away" from enactment, but whether that step will be taken in the coming days or postponed indefinitely to an uncertain future, the answer will soon be revealed.