Chúng ta còn bao xa nữa mới kết thúc thị trường gấu crypto?

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)

According to Coinglass data, from May 19 to today (July 3), the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in "negative" territory for 46 consecutive days, setting a record for the "longest consecutive negative" streak. Previously, the index recorded negative premiums for 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 this year, breaking the longest "negative streak" since the indicator's launch, surpassing the approximately 30 consecutive days of negative premiums during last year's "October 11 crash."

Given that BTC and ETH have briefly broken through key support levels like $58,000 and $1,600, the timeline for the bear market's end remains unclear, making the wait particularly agonizing for many.

Overview of the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index

The Biggest Trigger for BTC's Plunge: Strategy Selling for Survival, Expanding Losses

In late May and early June, Strategy, the largest BTC treasury company and leading cryptocurrency concept stock, sold BTC for the first time in three years. This transaction of only 32 BTC quickly sparked panic in the crypto market, acting like the last straw that broke the camel's back. Prices of major coins like BTC, ETH, and SOL subsequently plummeted.

Combined with factors like sustained net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and continuous bleeding from the crypto market, the shadow of the crypto bear market once again looms over the entire industry.

Bear Market Onset: BTC Records Worst Single-Week Performance Since 2022 in Early June

In the first week of June, Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000, recording its worst single-week performance since the FTX exchange collapse in 2022. In the nearly seven days leading up to June 7, Bitcoin accumulated a decline of 16%, retreating over 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in 2025.

Data at the time showed that US spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with cumulative outflows of approximately $5.5 billion. Additionally, Bitcoin's price fell below the widely watched "200-week moving average," a key support level, further weakening market confidence.

Paul Howard, Senior Director at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market as a "silent bear market," believing that breaking below the 200-week moving average is a crucial confirmation signal of the market entering a bearish phase.

Although BTC subsequently rebounded slightly to around $65,000, several market analysts warned at the time that the rebound might be unsustainable, and Bitcoin may not have reached the bottom of this cycle. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, stated that the market is still a considerable distance from a "true bottom."

From the author's perspective, if the market still held hopes for a significant BTC rebound in May, Strategy's move to sell BTC for survival directly shattered people's last illusions, symbolically raising the curtain on "bear market confirmation."

Bear Market Continues: Predictions of the Bear Market's End Prove Premature

On June 11, crypto research firm CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin might form a bottom near approximately $53,600, which is the current realized price of Bitcoin, representing the average on-chain cost basis of all market participants. The report noted that in previous major bear market cycles, Bitcoin typically bottomed around or slightly below its realized price.

On June 12, BIT published its latest weekly report, "Will the FIFA World Cup Mark the End of the Bitcoin Bear Market?" It suggested that the current bearish trend of Bitcoin is largely consistent with its outlook from early February 2026, with the previously predicted A-B-C corrective structure entering its final phase: after the A-wave decline to the $60,000–$69,000 range, Bitcoin rebounded to the $80,000–$90,000 range, peaked temporarily around $83,000, and then saw its rebound momentum gradually weaken.

BIT pointed out that the current Fear and Greed Index is approaching historically low areas of significant reference value, still showing some similarity to the bear market bottom structure of 2022. It maintained its previous view that the quiet summer trading period during the 2026 World Cup could be the final phase of this Bitcoin bear market.

On June 17, crypto research firm K33 stated that the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders reached an all-time high, suggesting the bear market might be nearing its end. It emphasized that coin reactivation activity in 2026 has been notably subdued. As of June 6, only 218,421 Bitcoins had been reactivated, indicating a significant reduction in on-chain selling pressure. In contrast, by the same period in 2024, 1.18 million Bitcoins had been reactivated. K33 believes that the decline in old coin activity signals a reduced willingness of long-term holders to sell, with patient participants continuously absorbing supply.

However, further declines in BTC quickly shattered these optimistic views, and the bear market marched on.

Bear Market Indicators: STRC Drops Below $100, Long-Term Holders of BTC and ETH See Losses Widen

On June 18, after falling below $95 earlier in the month, Strategy's preferred stock STRC dropped below $90, closing at $89, marking its lowest daily closing price since its IPO and its lowest dividend-adjusted closing price since November.

Subsequently, STRC continued its downward trend, consistently trading below its par value.

On June 26, STRC's pre-market price briefly fell to $73, hitting a new all-time low. Market attention then shifted to two events: first, the ex-dividend date on June 30, with eligible holders receiving a $0.48 per share dividend on July 15; second, the resetting of the monthly dividend rate, with STRC's effective yield near 15% at the time, leading investors to expect Strategy to raise the dividend rate from 11.50% to at least 12% or 12.50%.

Three days later, on June 29, Strategy officially announced a $1 billion digital credit security repurchase plan and introduced a board-approved "up to $1.25 billion Bitcoin realization plan." Its dollar reserves also increased to $2.55 billion following the implementation of various fundraising plans, giving it the capacity to service interest payments on preferred stocks like STRC. The STRC discount crisis was temporarily resolved for the moment, with its price rebounding above $80, currently trading at $87.87.

Source: Strategy Website

However, due to the continued decline in BTC and ETH, losses for long-term holders have further widened.

On June 25, Bitcoin briefly fell to around $59,100, putting 10.83 million BTC in a loss position, a record high surpassing the previous bear market bottom peak of approximately 10.5 million. Long-term holders (holding for at least 155 days) held a record 14.8 million BTC (Note from Odaily Planet Daily: The total circulating supply of Bitcoin is approximately 20 million), with 37% of their holdings in a loss. Latest data shows that the number of BTC held long-term has grown to 16.61 million BTC today, with the average cost basis dropping to around $49,700.

Data from June 26 showed that ETH whales have fallen into losses for the first time since 2019. Even during the 2022 bear market, whales holding over 100,000 ETH remained profitable. The unrealized profit ratio for all three categories of whales is currently negative: -0.26 for those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH, -0.21 for those holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH, and -0.05 for those holding over 100,000 ETH. This condition has persisted for several weeks.

On June 28, Bitcoin UTXO data showed that the ratio of loss-making transactions to profitable transactions in the current market has dropped to its lowest level this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a phase of "capitulation." A similar low was last seen during the depth of the mid-2023 bear market, when Bitcoin's price fell to around $26,000.

Earlier, due to the persistent price decline, ETH's market cap briefly fell below $185 billion, being overtaken by USDT. As prices rebounded above $1,700, ETH's market cap currently stands at around $207 billion.

In summary, key indicators for the bear market's end will include STRC recovering to its $100 par value and long-term holders of BTC and ETH emerging from loss positions.

Guessing the Bear Market's End: August or December?

Regarding the specific timeline for the bear market's end, there is currently no mainstream consensus. We will only use some industry opinions as reference here.

Yi Lihua: July-August Could Be a Good Time to Buy the Dip

At the end of June, TrendResearch founder Yi Lihua posted that the current decline is the third wave since the October 11 event. According to wave theory and cyclical patterns, this could be the last major drop for Bitcoin.

The market's primary focus is on Bitcoin's bottom price, mainly influenced by US stocks and MicroStrategy. The Federal Reserve's concerns about CPI could lead to changes in expectations for rate cuts or even hikes, causing a continued pullback in US stocks. Secondly, past bear market tail ends often featured black swan events or major blow-ups. This hasn't occurred yet in this cycle and still requires close monitoring.

Based on Bitcoin's high of $126,000, a 60% decline corresponds to $51,000, and a 66% decline corresponds to $43,000. Regardless, July to August should be the final window, and also the best time to buy the dip, potentially the most worthwhile opportunity in the next three years.

Jiang Zhuoer: BTC Will Bottom Between $42,000 and $44,000 Between October and December

On June 25, BTC.TOP founder Jiang Zhuoer predicted that the current BTC bear market would bottom out at $44,016 on October 31 this year. Integrating the pattern where mNAV leads the BTC price by 6 months in finding a bottom, he revised the bottoming window to between October and December 2026, with a price range of $42,000 to $44,000.

He pointed out the underlying logic: the mNAV (Market cap / Net Asset Value per BTC held) of Strategy's common stock MSTR has fallen to 0.72, close to the cycle low of 0.7 reached on May 11, 2022. Based on recent market sentiment events like the significant de-pegging of STRC, this can be predicted as the lowest area of mNAV for this cycle. However, the lowest mNAV does not coincide with the lowest BTC price. In the previous cycle, mNAV bottomed at 0.7 on May 11, 2022, when BTC was at $31,017. BTC subsequently bottomed at $15,476 on November 21, 2022, when mNAV was 1.2 – a gap of 6 months.

BTC Price Indicators: 4-Year Moving Average, 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap

According to Coinglass data, the BTC 4-Year Moving Average Price index showed that from June 25 to June 30, influenced by BTC briefly falling below $59,000, the index dropped to 0.95. It has since recovered to around 1 following BTC's rebound above $61,000.

According to the BTC 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap, BTC's price is currently roughly level with the 200-week moving average and has been trading below it consistently since June 23, potentially hinting at a price bottom.

Additionally, returning to the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index mentioned at the beginning of the article, it currently remains at -0.123%. Based on previous positive ranges, BTC would need to rally to around $77,000 for the index to have a chance of turning positive again.

In summary, without strong external bullish catalysts, this bear market is likely to last at least another 2-3 months. The period from late September to early October will be a critical window to judge whether BTC can stage a recovery.

Recommended Reading

4 Classic Bottom-Fishing Indicators Have All Failed; Do 3 New Indicators Signal a Buying Opportunity?