揭秘Citrini背后“投研之神”：Substack常年霸榜第一，一篇报告让美股蒸发数千亿

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )

In this bull market of U.S. stocks, besides the "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity who is active in public opinion as an individual, another independent research institution named Citrini has also attracted significant attention—consistently ranking first in Substack's finance category with nearly 250,000 subscribers.

In February this year, Citrini's report "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" once triggered a "sell-off wave in U.S. software stocks," exacerbating panic psychology around the wave of unemployment in Silicon Valley. In April, Analyst#3 from Citrini personally visited the region to write the "Strait of Hormuz Research Report," which sparked strong reactions, using first-hand experience to peel back the layers of fog surrounding the true nature of this conflict. Most recently, Citrini's semiconductor analyst Jukan accurately predicted the importance of the copper foil industry in AI and semiconductors, fueling a new wave of investment.

Behind this research institution stands a founder without a formal financial background: James van Geelen, who holds a double major in Biology and Psychology from UCLA, has worked as an emergency medical technician, founded a medical company, and entered the investment world later in his career, now hailed as the "God of Research." In this issue, Odaily Planet Daily will unveil James' cross-sector legend.

Citrini Founder: The Narrative Master of "Second-Order Thinking"

When talking about Citrini, the crypto community might have first noticed this research account in May this year, just before Cerebras (CBRS) went public, when he posted mentioning that "fund managers are conducting price discovery early on Trade.xyz (within the Hyperliquid ecosystem)." That tweet was subsequently forwarded and confirmed by Shokun, the founder of Trade.xyz.

Citrini: The "Traditional Finance Whistleblower" for Hyperliquid and Trade.xyz

It's no exaggeration to say that, as a research account that once published the viral piece "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis", Citrini's radiating influence on the traditional finance circle is evident.

Its high praise for the pre-market pricing of U.S. stocks on the Hyperliquid ecosystem and Trade.xyz has truly brought crypto market RWA platforms, pre-market U.S. stock contract platforms, and on-chain U.S. stock trading platforms into broader view, contributing to this year's "U.S. stock RWA asset craze" to a certain extent.

In a sense, Citrini serves as a vane, sending a "warning signal" to the traditional financial circle—it uses accurate and precise information to warn traditional financial markets that previously overlooked crypto players are now eyeing the "big pie" of traditional financial markets like barbarians.

And behind Citrini is a founder who believes in "second-order thinking" and "long-termism"—James van Geelen.

Diverse Labels: Double Degree in Biology and Psychology, Medical Emergency Practitioner, "AI Panic Whistleblower"

At 33 years old, James van Geelen (hereinafter referred to as Geelen) probably never imagined that a "popular AI discussion post" could trigger the rapid evaporation of hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. stock market value; earlier, his career resume had nothing to do with AI.

Public information shows that Geelen graduated from the prestigious UCLA, earning a double major in Biology and Psychology. He also worked as an emergency medical technician and paramedic in downtown Los Angeles. A prestigious university background and medical emergency experience shaped his personality of pursuing efficiency and being good at planning. As he himself says, "If you don't have a plan, you're going to have a bad time." Additionally, he fancies himself a "musical genius," though he lacks any notable works.

According to Geelen's original plan, he should have become a doctor saving lives, but by a twist of fate, he instead embarked on an entrepreneurial path: first founding a healthcare company and selling it to a private equity fund, thus successfully breaking out of the "prestigious university - working - professional manager" cycle; then founding Citrini.

Notably, according to information he personally mentioned on the Odd Lots podcast in 2023, he also co-founded one of Connecticut's earliest medical marijuana dispensaries. From this perspective, he is far from the cookie-cutter or even stubborn "proper doctor" in most people's eyes.

In 2018, after accumulating some seed capital, Geelen started his personal investment career under the name Citrinitas Capital, catching early opportunities in AI (like NVIDIA) and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (like Ozempic/Wegovy).

In 2023, Geelen officially founded Citrini Research, dedicated to "cross-asset, multi-dimensional thinking for investment analysis," providing in-depth reports on thematic stock investing and global macro trading. It quickly grew into a top creator in the finance sector on the Substack platform. (Odaily Planet Daily Note: Offers both individual subscription and institutional subscription models.)

On May 31, 2023, the model portfolio Citrindex, built on personal research, was officially launched with an annual subscription fee of $1,250. According to reports, the portfolio has achieved cumulative returns exceeding 200%, with monthly gains often outperforming the S&P 500.

In March 2024, he boldly predicted Trump would win the election; in July 2025, amid the turmoil surrounding former Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's departure, he boldly advised over 50,000 subscribers to "buy 2-year U.S. Treasuries and short 10-year U.S. Treasuries" to hedge policy risks.

In December 2025, according to PitchBook information, Citrini completed a seed round of approximately $5.05 million. With only about 10 employees, the company remains privately held.

Then, in February this year, he co-authored with Alap Shah, who comes from a traditional finance background, the report that shook the U.S. stock market: "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis". Although he repeatedly emphasized the report was just a "thought experiment" and scenario hypothesis rather than predictive analysis, the mentioned phenomena like "mass white-collar unemployment, declining consumer spending, economic contraction (Ghost GDP)" still triggered panic and concern in the capital markets, leading to a sharp decline in delivery, payment, and software stocks. Notably, IBM's stock price on February 23 recorded its largest single-day drop since 2025; American Express and Blackstone both fell over 8%, the entire software stock sector dropped nearly 5%, and companies like DoorDash, Uber, Mastercard, Visa, Capital One, and Apollo Global Management Inc. saw their stocks fall by up to 3%. Multiple U.S. stock sectors were swept into the selling wave, with the Dow Jones Index at one point dropping over 800 points. Alap Shah later publicly stated that their investment stance was "bearish long," meaning shorting companies they believe will be disrupted by AI while holding semiconductor technology stocks that benefit from AI.

It's no exaggeration to say that Citrini's report caused the evaporation of hundreds of billions in the U.S. stock market. That single report directly led to a "bloodbath" in the market, with hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap evaporating overnight, triggering follow-up reports from Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, and other overseas media.

On April 6 this year, Citrini's "Analyst #3" (codename Analyst#3) personally visited the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint in the U.S.-Iran conflict, for research. They disclosed many little-known first-hand observations, revealed the specific operational model of Iran's "toll booth" in the strait, and presented a series of counter-intuitive conclusions, such as: Regardless of how the situation develops, shipping volume through the strait will gradually increase; Iran does not want to close the Strait of Hormuz. First, shipping volume through the strait will continue to increase. Second, a diplomatic-style "toll booth"; surprisingly, traffic order in the strait is actually very standardized. Third, contradictory escalation; even if ground operations commence, shipping volume through the strait might continue to rise. Fourth, reshuffling of structures, not a winner-takes-all match. This conflict is not simply a "two-sided confrontation" but a multi-party game. Geographical disputes amidst the games of great powers are also a key topic within Citrini's research scope.

When asked why he named the company "citrinitas," Geelen replied: "The inspiration comes from financial tycoon George Soros's 'The Alchemy of Finance.' This is actually a stage in alchemy. However, most people don't know that in this transition phase, lead begins to transform into gold, but hasn't fully turned into gold yet." This is also his favorite "moment of action"—seeing the birth of "gold" before others notice the change in lead.

Investment Style: Second-Order Thinking, Narrative-Driven, Reverse Scenario

As for Citrini's investment style, thanks to its founder's cross-sector experience and diverse labels, it highly advocates "second-order thinking."

As Geelen himself says: "Most investors focus solely on the ball, but I focus more on where the ball will bounce next."

Based on Citrini's past content and public information, this research institution focuses on long-term "super trends," such as AI, robotics, energy demand, fiscal policy, geopolitics, and modern warfare. Additionally, it aims to provide executable "investment reference portfolios" and tactical macro trading ideas, with its analysis leaning towards long-term structural changes rather than short-term trading. On its Substack homepage introduction, we can see its emphasis on practicality, stating: "You (the reader) will no longer have to ask 'What is the trade.'"

Furthermore, Citrini often uses "scenario hypotheses" to help readers understand second/third-order effects. Geelen once mentioned: "Don't always think about what you *think* will happen. Instead, think about what *must* happen. How will the market's reaction change the real-world situation? What will be the secondary impacts? What are the obstacles to sustaining a certain trend? Where will capital flow to overcome these obstacles?" Previously, in March 2023 during the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, he boldly bought overnight financing rate call options, easily yielding nearly 50 times returns. In December last year, he shared his views on investment opportunities in Venezuelan sovereign bonds before the US launched military operations in Venezuela.

Since the beginning of this year, Citrini has successively brought in several independent analysts, including macro analyst Nick Reece, Korean semiconductor industry analyst @jukan05, and AI chip industry analyst @zephyr_z9, among others. This has, to some extent, filled gaps in areas like industry specifics, technical processes, and changes in industry trends. Currently, this research institution still maintains a production model driven by the founder in collaboration with an anonymous elite team.