World Cup prediction battles are heating up – how are major exchanges competing for this wave of event traffic?
- Core Thesis: With the World Cup approaching, major crypto exchanges and prediction market platforms are launching World Cup prediction events. Among them, Binance ecosystem's predict.fun leads with a total prize pool of $2.3 million, while OKX, Bybit, Gate, Bitget, and others are rolling out differentiated gameplay to attract users to on-chain predictions and trading ecosystems.
- Key Elements:
- Binance, via predict.fun, has launched the "Predict Cup" event ($2 million prize pool) and the Binance Wallet PNL Trading Competition ($300,000 prize pool), for a total prize pool exceeding $2.3 million – the highest in the industry.
- OKX, based on its self-developed prediction market, employs a "free points + task incentive" mechanism. The current prize pool is 4 BTC (approx. $247,000), with a cap of 16.6 BTC (approx. $1.02 million) when participating users exceed 400,000.
- Bybit has launched the "Football Season 2026" event. Users earn Points by trading to predict match outcomes, using a point multiplier and deduction mechanism. The total prize pool is up to $1 million, settled independently in stages.
- Gate has launched the "Green Pitch Prophet" event. Users complete tasks to earn trial tickets and prediction tickets for match predictions. The total prize pool exceeds $500,000, including USDT rewards and football merchandise.
- Bitget Wallet has integrated Polymarket, launching a $200,000 prize pool event. This includes a championship prediction ($20,000), a 20-day winning streak competition, social viewing parties, and first-time trade protection for low-barrier participation.
Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)
With the World Cup approaching, the prediction market is already heating up.
Over a month-long schedule with 104 matches, from the group stage to the knockout rounds, different teams take the field every day, sparking new topics of discussion daily.
It is precisely for this reason that the two giants of the prediction market, Polymarket and Kalshi, have already positioned themselves for the World Cup. Polymarket has launched a World Cup section, but has not yet set up a separate prize pool, likely still relying on LPs for incentives; Kalshi, while offering a $1 million championship prediction pool, requires US KYC for participation.
Polymarket's World Cup-specific prediction interface
But the excitement in the World Cup prediction market is not limited to Polymarket and Kalshi. As the tournament approaches, major exchanges are also joining the World Cup prediction craze. Below, Odaily Planet Daily will guide you through the prediction activities of major exchanges during the World Cup period.
Binance: predict.fun Takes Over World Cup Prediction Market Entry, Dual Event Pool Exceeds $2.3 Million
Based on the World Cup prediction market activities announced so far, predict.fun within the Binance ecosystem offers the highest reward pool.
It is worth noting that both the main Binance website and Binance Wallet have integrated the third-party on-chain prediction market platform predict.fun, offering users access to probability trading. Therefore, Binance's prediction market activities during the World Cup also revolve around predict.fun.
Binance Main Site Prediction Section World Cup Activity Interface
Specifically, predict.fun's activities during the World Cup are divided into two parts. First, the "Predict Cup" event launched on the predict.fun platform, with a total prize pool of $2 million; second, Binance Wallet also collaborates with predict.fun to launch the Football Season PNL Trading Competition, with a prize pool of $300,000.
The "Predict Cup" event is more focused on the overall World Cup format (official link: https://predict.fun/world-cup). Users can select up to 5 supported teams and make predictions on markets such as match results, scores, and goal numbers, accumulating Fan Points to share in the prize pool. The amount of rewards users receive depends on their point ranking at the end of each round, and rewards are distributed after the round concludes. The top-ranked player always receives 15% of the pool, and 20% in the final. Here is the breakdown of the available prize pool for each round:
- Group Stage: $70,000 per group;
- Round of 32: $25,000 per match;
- Round of 16: $30,000 per match;
- Quarterfinals: $40,000 per match;
- Semifinals: $50,000 per match;
- Final: $260,000.
"Predict Cup" Event Prize Pool Distribution
The $300,000 PNL Trading Competition between Binance Wallet and predict.fun (pinned on Binance Wallet's official X account) is more focused on trading skill ranking. Users need to register through the event page and trade in the World Cup category markets on the Binance main site prediction market or the predict.fun app within Binance Wallet. The final ranking is based on realized profits and losses generated during the event period. The top 500 users on the leaderboard who meet the conditions can receive rewards, with the champion receiving $50,000.
Binance Wallet Web Version Prediction Market Section Activity Interface
OKX: Earn Points for Free for Predictions, Prize Pool Up to 16.6 BTC
Unlike Binance, OKX's World Cup activities are not based on integrating a third-party prediction market but are built around its own in-house prediction market. Users do not need to directly invest funds to participate in World Cup prediction events; instead, they earn points by completing tasks and use those points for World Cup match predictions.
From a participation threshold perspective, OKX's approach leans more towards "free predictions + task incentives." Users can earn points by registering for events, daily check-ins, predicting matches, completing new user tasks, and inviting friends, then use those points for World Cup-related match predictions.
In terms of the prize pool, OKX uses a dynamic unlocking mechanism. Currently, there are nearly 80,000 participants, and the current prize pool is 4 BTC (valued at approximately $247,000). When the number of participating users exceeds 400,000, the prize pool reaches its upper limit of 16.6 BTC (valued at approximately $1.02 million). Specifically, users can earn points in five main ways:
- Predict World Cup matches to earn points;
- Register for the event to get a batch of points immediately;
- New users complete tasks and register for the event to get points immediately;
- Invite friends to complete new user tasks to get points immediately;
- Daily check-in to earn points.
OKX Prediction Section World Cup Activity
Bybit: Trade to Earn Points, Use Points for Predictions, Total Pool Up to $1 Million
Bybit's World Cup activity is called Football Season 2026, revolving around trading tasks and football match predictions, with a maximum total prize pool of $1 million.
The activity uses a "trade to earn points, use points for predictions" mechanism. Users first earn Points by completing designated trading tasks, then use those Points to predict football match results. If the prediction is correct, the points are multiplied according to the corresponding community multiplier; if incorrect, the corresponding points are deducted.
The activity is divided into three phases: Group Stage, Knockout Stage, and Finals, each settled independently. Users who accumulate at least 30 net Points in a single phase can participate in sharing that phase's prize pool, with final rewards distributed proportionally based on the net Points of eligible users.
Bybit World Cup Prediction Activity Interface
Gate: Launches World Cup Section and "Green Pitch Prophet" $500,000 Event
Currently, Gate has launched the "Green Pitch Prophet" World Cup limited-time event. During the event, users who register and complete tasks related to spot, futures, CFD, VIP upgrades, and various business lines can receive prediction market trial vouchers and prediction tickets to participate in guessing tasks within Gate Polymarket's designated football match prediction markets, aiming for the points leaderboard, ultimate championship prediction, VIP jersey gift boxes, live draw prizes, and other benefits.
The total prize pool for the event exceeds $500,000, including prediction market trial vouchers, USDT rewards, trading cashback, and limited-edition football-themed merchandise.
Gate Green Pitch Prophet Activity Interface
Bitget: Main Battlefield is Bitget Wallet, Launching a $200,000 Event
Bitget's World Cup actions are primarily concentrated in Bitget Wallet. On the product level, Bitget Wallet has integrated Polymarket's World Cup prediction market, allowing users to participate in on-chain predictions directly within the wallet and view auxiliary information such as AI analysis and smart money tracking.
Centered around this entry point, Bitget Wallet has launched a 2026 FIFA World Cup prediction market activity with a total prize pool of $200,000. The specific activities include:
- World Cup Champion Prediction, with a prize pool of $20,000. Users can select the team they believe will win the championship and earn points by inviting friends. Ultimately, users who correctly guess the champion will share the prize pool based on their points. This format requires no trading to participate, offering a low barrier to entry;
- 20-Day Winning Streak Prediction Event, with a prize pool of $80,000. Users participate in designated prediction market trades daily during the event period. Rewards are given upon meeting requirements, up to $10 per day and a maximum of $200 for the entire event;
- Social Watch Party, with a prize pool of $50,000. Users join the Bitget Wallet watch channel to participate in random red envelopes and exclusive airdrops during live matches;
- First Trade Protection, with a prize pool of $50,000. Users who incur losses on their first prediction market trade can receive compensation from Bitget Wallet. Slots are limited and available on a first-come, first-served basis.
