硬资产投资大佬Lepard：美联储「大印钞」周期1-2年内将至，黄金白银爆发机会可能来了

Original Author: Xu Chao

Original Source: Wall Street Journal

At the crossroads of the global macroeconomy in 2026, sovereign debt pressure coexists with technological frenzy. Lawrence Lepard, a seasoned fund manager and author of The Big Print, recently sat down for an in-depth conversation with host Adam Taggart on the Thoughtful Money podcast.

Lepard pointed out that the current financial system is on the dangerous edge of "Defcon 2." He offered a strikingly "non-consensus" prediction: the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, is far from the pure hawk the market portrays him to be; instead, he is highly likely to force open the door to rate cuts soon. At the same time, he firmly believes that a new super-cycle for commodities is already established, and after silver shattered its 50-year historical ceiling, its long-term target will point directly towards $100 to $200.

Key Takeaways

• "The Big Print" is Irreversible: The growth rate of overall societal debt far exceeds underlying GDP growth. To sustain the massive credit structure, the Fed will ultimately be forced to resort to printing money; an emergency "break the glass" moment is approaching.
• The "Non-Consensus" Timeline for Fed Rate Cuts: The market currently prices in only a 3% probability of a rate cut in June, but Warsh might use the "Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE (down to 2.3%)" and "AI-enhanced societal productivity" as excuses to unexpectedly announce a rate cut. He has a very high probability of directly announcing a rate cut at the upcoming meeting.
• Disguised Yield Curve Control (YCC): Faced with selling pressure from "bond vigilantes," the US may ultimately follow the WWII playbook, implementing absolute subjective control, locking short and long-term rates, and completely abolishing SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) restrictions to force big banks to buy government bonds.
• Silver's "Breakout of the Century": Global silver has been in an absolute supply-demand deficit for five consecutive years. After breaking through the half-century iron lid of $50, surging to $120, and experiencing a correction, the current level around $76 is a strong bottom, potentially setting the stage for a multi-fold explosion in the future.

I. Debt Growth Far Outpaces GDP, Making "The Big Print" the Inevitable Endgame for the Credit System

Lepard pointed out that in a credit-driven financial system, all new money is essentially created out of thin air through "borrowing." Therefore, the money supply must continuously grow at a certain rate to support the ever-expanding credit within the system.

However, the fundamental problem facing society as a whole is that the growth rate of overall societal debt has far exceeded the endogenous growth rate of underlying GDP. This state of extreme overextension will inevitably lead to a sovereign debt crisis or a dollar currency crisis. To support this massive credit structure, which is expanding much faster than GDP, the only ultimate solution for the authorities is to print money.

Lepard believes that although policymakers will try their utmost to avoid this step due to fears of high inflation, when the system reaches a tipping point—where they can no longer bear the cost of not printing money and watch the entire financial structure crumble like dominoes—all rules will be thrown out the window, and their only choice will be to print money frantically.

History has clearly demonstrated this twice: in 2008, when the entire commercial banking system was on the verge of collapse due to the real estate credit bubble, and during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which saw an even larger wave of money printing to cope with the nationwide economic shutdown. Lepard emphasized that former US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recently broke a long silence to publicly signal that a dangerous moment is imminent—this is strong evidence that the underlying math can no longer be concealed and that a crisis is brewing wildly beneath the surface.

II. The Fed Under Warsh: A "Non-Consensus" Path to Rate Cuts Beneath a Hawkish Exterior

Contrary to the market's label of Kevin Warsh as a "hawkish" advocate for shrinking the balance sheet, Lepard offers a highly disruptive "non-consensus" prediction. He believes Warsh is highly likely to choose to directly announce a rate cut—or even a substantial 50 basis point cut—at the upcoming meeting.

Lepard analyzes that Warsh, in his previous public speeches, has laid the groundwork with two perfect political and economic excuses for his policy path:

• Introducing the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE: Warsh argues that the official traditional PCE indicator is not precise enough. As of April, the national traditional PCE was as high as 3.8%; however, the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean PCE stands at 2.3%. Using the 2.3% figure, which is just a stone's throw from the Fed's 2% inflation target, provides an impeccably sound statistical reason for cutting rates.
• Echoing Greenspan's "Productivity Surge" Playbook: Warsh is loudly proclaiming that the development of AI technology will bring about a massive surge in societal productivity in the coming years. In monetary economics, the most core theoretical support for arguing that "lowering interest rates won't cause runaway inflation" is a "simultaneous, massive productivity surge across society." This mirrors the strategy of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who, in 1996, used the pretext of internet technological progress to justify rate cuts, ultimately inflating the "dot-com bubble."

Combined with the Trump administration's strong desire for immediate, substantial rate cuts from the Fed, and Treasury candidate Bessent's suggestion that high inflation is "transitory," Lepard asserts that to promote the capital-heavy "reshoring of manufacturing and aggressive national industrial policy," the Fed will inevitably cut rates sharply to inject "lubricant" capital, even if it means the entire macroeconomy runs hot in an endless cycle of high inflation.

III. Bond Vigilantes' Full Rebellion and the Return of WWII-Style Yield Curve Control

Taggart questioned whether the "bond vigilantes" would willingly comply if the Fed were to cut rates forcefully without inflation being completely eradicated.

Lepard answered in the negative. He pointed to the latest data showing foreign investors, led by Japan and China, are selling off US Treasuries at record levels. Once the Fed embarks on a path of forced rate cuts, a full-blown rebellion in the 10-year Treasury market is inevitable, driving yields uncontrollably higher. To counter this, the US authorities will ultimately be forced into an extreme industrial policy—implementing absolute subjective control and Yield Curve Control (YCC).

He draws a perfect historical parallel to the WW2 era. In 1942, facing a debt-to-GDP ratio strikingly similar to today's, the authorities stepped in and bluntly locked short-term rates at 0.375% and long-term rates at 2.5%, packaging the government's extraction of wealth as a patriotic duty for the public.

Lepard predicts that once a full-scale sell-off erupts in the Treasury market, the Fed will be forced into a disguised form of YCC, buying all the bonds, leading to a catastrophic and boundless expansion of its balance sheet. Before this extreme moment arrives, the Fed is expected to completely abolish all SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) regulatory restrictions quickly. This would remove the hard ceiling on how many Treasuries commercial banks can hold on their balance sheets, effectively forcing big banks to take the bonds off the Fed's hands. They would invent a mechanism similar to the BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program) of yore, pumping trillions of dollars back into the financial system.

IV. The Trillion-Dollar AI Tsunami: Replaying the 2000 Frenzy with Hard Resource Constraints

Discussing the current capital frenzy, Taggart cited core Wall Street research, noting that US capital expenditure on AI is approaching 1 to 1.2 trillion dollars, providing a powerful short-term stimulant to the real economy and stock market.

Lepard strongly agreed, stating that the current situation is a perfect blend of the 2000 internet frenzy and the 2008 financial crisis. The trajectory of Nvidia and other major computing giants mirrors that of Dell and Intel back then. In the modern fiat system, increasingly high nominal asset prices are needed to barely keep debt from imploding, so Lepard says he has completely given up on being a rigid US stock market bear. Just like in the early days of the Weimar Republic, the stock market often appears dazzlingly brilliant in nominal terms during the initial phase of currency collapse.

However, Lepard emphasized that the tsunami of liquidity from massive fiat money printing is facing a harsh correction from the physical world:

• The Physical Copper Gap: To materialize the ambitious trillion-dollar AI data centers and supporting super-grid networks planned by the giants, objective mathematics and physics dictate that global physical copper output must be forcibly increased by 2 to 3 times from current levels to be sufficient.
• Strategic Silver Depletion: Ambitious blueprints, such as SpaceX's plan to deploy vast solar panel arrays in space, would, in physical engineering terms, inevitably and instantly consume a terrifying amount of the Earth's physical silver reserves.

Lepard asserts that capital can be conjured out of thin air by tapping a keyboard, but physical resources cannot be created from nothing. Humanity has now completely bid farewell to the low-inflation era of the past and is living in a high-inflation, heavy-commodities bull market world.

V. Silver's Asymmetric Bet: Supply-Demand Deficit and the Century-Defying Break Above $50

On the specific asset allocation dimension, Lepard delved into the fundamental differences between silver and gold. He noted that silver is inherently the more volatile and "demonic" of the two precious metals because it is not only an ancient monetary metal but also an indispensable core industrial strategic metal.

Lepard emphasized that silver is currently experiencing an epic, asymmetric breakout:

• Five Consecutive Years of Absolute Deficit: The supply-demand structure for physical silver has been in a severe absolute deficit for five straight years. Annual mining output has long been unable to keep up with the relentless consumption by physical industry and financial investment.
• Shattering the Half-Century Ceiling: In international commodity history, silver had been burdened with a massive historical red line of $50 for half a century. During the main rally last year, silver decisively shattered this ceiling, surging to $120. After a recent deep technical correction of significant magnitude, the price has now fallen back and is firmly standing on the long-term support of the 200-day moving average, around the $76 level.
• Extreme Contrarian Sentiment Indicator: Authoritative data shows that the bullish positions for gold and silver among US investment advisors have collapsed from an overheated 80%-90% at the start of the year to a terrifying negative 30% (-30%). The widespread anomaly of professional advisors nationwide urging clients to short hard assets is, from a contrarian perspective, a textbook opportunity for market sentiment to carve a bottom in utter despair.

Citing the commodity formula from Jeff Curry, former Goldman Sachs head of commodity research, Lepard noted that when such core commodities trigger a multi-decade "breakout of the century," their final nominal price typically increases two, three, or even four times from that breakout point (e.g., $50). This implies a long-term nominal target for silver pointing directly to the terrifying levels of $100, $150, or even $200.

Although silver mining stocks have recently experienced a sharp 50% drawdown, for investors with sufficient risk tolerance, silver currently represents a wealth bet with greater explosive potential and asymmetric optionality compared to gold.

The following is the full transcript of the interview, translated by AI:

Larry (Lawrence Lepard):

You know, if we use the War Games analogy, the Defcon levels are 1 to 5. Defcon 5 means everything is awesome, and Defcon 1 means our fingers are on the nuclear button. Looking at the current macro situation, what level do you think we're at?

Larry:

I think we're at 2. I think we're at a 2 right now. Possibly, maybe it's a 1 and I'm misreading it, but I personally believe we're at a 2.

Adam (Adam Taggart):

Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Adam Taggart, founder and host of Thoughtful Money. It's great to have everyone here. I'm looking forward to a fantastic discussion with the brilliant Lawrence Lepard. He's the author of this great book, The Big Print. Larry, how are you doing?

Larry:

I'm doing well, Adam. Thank you. You're very kind with all that flattery.

Adam:

Oh, it's a really great book. We've discussed it before on the channel, and there are many super fans of your overall research and that specific book watching right now.

I think we should just start right here, shouldn't we? Let's jump right into it.

You present a central premise in The Big Print. Could you, in about a 30-second nutshell, explain in your own words what "The Big Print" is, and why you're so confident it's coming?

But before we get too deep, Larry, I really want to ask you something: Are you adjusting your timing for this cycle? There might be a few reasons for you to revise your timeline, and one of them could be the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh. At least on the surface, he's presented as someone less likely to be as enthusiastic about "The Big Print" as his immediate predecessors. So first, let's start here. What's your 30-second core thesis?

Larry:

Yes, it's a great question. So, the 30-second quick overview of "The Big Print" is this: Our core thesis is that in a credit-driven financial system, virtually all new money must be borrowed into existence, so to speak. Therefore, the money supply needs to grow at a certain rate to support the ever-expanding credit within the system.

This means credit and money supply are two sides of the same coin, tracking each other. And the problem emerges—I used to have this on my X (Twitter) bio, and I recently posted it again on my feed—the fundamental trouble we face is that the growth rate of overall societal debt has far exceeded the endogenous growth rate of underlying GDP.

This inevitably leads to either a sovereign debt crisis or a dollar currency crisis. And to support the massive credit structure that has been built and is expanding faster than GDP, the only ultimate solution for the authorities is to print money.

Historically, policymakers have tried desperately to avoid this step because printing money causes inflation, and nobody likes high inflation. But, of course, they always reach a point or a crossroads where they can no longer bear the cost of not printing money, and they are forced into "The Big Print."

So far, we've seen it happen twice. The first time was in 2008, when the whole commercial banking system was on the verge of collapse due