Nasdaq giảm 4,2% trong một ngày, "Thứ Sáu Đen" có làm vỡ bong bóng chứng khoán Mỹ?

Original by Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng 888 )

On Friday, June 5, U.S. stocks experienced their sharpest single-day pullback so far in 2026. The Nasdaq Composite plunged 4.18% to close at 25,709.43 points, marking its largest single-day drop since April 2025; the S&P 500 fell 2.64% to 7,383.74 points, ending a nine-week winning streak; the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 695.15 points (1.35%) to close at 50,866.78 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted over 10%, with a single-day market cap evaporation of approximately $1.3 trillion, led by AI core stocks such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, and Marvell.

Suddenly, the question "Have US stocks peaked?" spread from trading floors to screens of global investors. Odaily will conduct a rigorous analysis combining recent data and historical comparisons: Is the current valuation of US stocks too high? Is this pullback a healthy correction or a trend reversal? What are the future driving factors?

1. The June 5 Crash Panorama: A Data-Driven "Perfect Storm"

The direct trigger for this crash was the non-farm payroll data released on Friday evening.

The May non-farm payroll data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed 172,000 new jobs added, nearly double the market expectation of 88,000 and significantly higher than April's 115,000. April's employment data had already exceeded expectations. Furthermore, March's employment data was revised upward by 29,000, and April's by 64,000, making the employment growth rate over the past three months the strongest in two years. This indicates a systematic underestimation of the U.S. employment situation in previous data, sufficient to fuel market concerns about economic overheating.

The strong employment data pushed up inflation expectations, leading the market to anticipate the Fed's earliest possible rate hike in October of this year. Following the data release, U.S. Treasuries were sold off, with the 10-year yield rising 5.8 basis points to 4.531%, and the policy-sensitive 2-year yield climbing over 7 basis points in a single day to 4.1%.

The jump in bond yields severely impacted tech stocks, which are high-valuation, high-growth assets most sensitive to interest rates.

Although Broadcom's earnings the previous day were strong, its AI custom chip business guidance failed to meet the market's extremely high expectations, triggering a chain reaction. Nvidia fell over 6%, Micron dropped 13.3%, Marvell declined 16.7%, and AMD fell 10.9%. Profit-taking concentrated in the semiconductor sector, combined with doubts about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure, created an avalanche effect. Reports indicated Meta would add tens of billions of dollars in AI investment, but it failed to reverse the sector's decline.

Trading volume expanded, and the VIX panic index soared 37% to 21.15, indicating a rapid spread of risk aversion. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 simultaneously, while gold and crude oil also corrected, putting broad pressure on risk assets. However, not all sectors declined: defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples rose against the trend, with "old-economy blue chips" like Johnson & Johnson and Coca-Cola attracting safe-haven capital. This suggests the market isn't in full panic but is undergoing a targeted adjustment in high-valuation sectors.

On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 ended its nine-week winning streak, with the Nasdaq falling 4.7% for the week, its worst performance in over a year. The Dow was relatively resilient, down only 0.3% for the week, indicating signs of sector rotation.

"This is an extreme case of 'good news is bad news,'" said Michael Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a post-market report. "The strong employment data means the Fed's tightening constraints will be locked in tighter. It directly shakes the only pillar supporting the high valuations of U.S. stocks – the impending expectation of rate cuts."

2. The Fading AI Myth: Dominoes of a Crowded Trade

If the non-farm data was the trigger, then the accumulated froth and fragility within the AI sector itself were the explosives with massive yield.

Over the past 18 months, AI has been the sole narrative driving U.S. stocks to repeated record highs. Nvidia's market cap once exceeded $5 trillion, accounting for over 7% of the S&P 500's weight, while the entire AI ecosystem-related stocks approached nearly 40% of the S&P's total market cap.

However, entering the second quarter of 2026, cracks began to appear in this belief.

Several cloud service providers, in recent supply chain surveys, were reported to be cutting some orders for Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell Ultra chips, citing excessive previous inventory hoarding and the monetization speed of enterprise AI applications being far slower than infrastructure investment. Although Nvidia's financial report at the end of May still showed impressive figures, its revenue growth guidance has slowed for three consecutive quarters, with signs of declining gross margins.

The previously extremely crowded long trade in big tech stocks quickly turned into a stampede-style unwinding under interest rate pressure. When the non-farm data triggered a spike in interest rates, the attractiveness of holding these high-duration, high-valuation growth stocks suddenly plummeted. Their fragile marginal buyers – leveraged quantitative funds and retail investors – were the first to break, triggering a chain reaction.

"The AI trade has shifted from FOMO (fear of missing out) to fear of being trapped," said renowned value investor and GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham, who has long warned about AI overvaluation. He has compared the current situation to the eve of the 2000 internet bubble, noting that many AI companies' revenues may struggle to support their current high valuations.

3. Valuation and Historical Comparison: Has the US Stock Market Reached a Bubble Peak?

The reason this pullback has sparked widespread discussion about whether the market has peaked is that it occurs against the backdrop of multiple high valuation and sentiment indicators converging.

First, valuations are at historical highs. Before the June 5 correction, the S&P 500's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio (CAPE, or Shiller P/E) was approximately 39.5 times, the third-highest level after the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 pandemic easing period, significantly higher than before the 2007 financial crisis. The forward P/E ratio was also around 22.5 times, far above the long-term historical average of 15.8 times. The "Buffett Indicator" – the ratio of total U.S. stock market capitalization to GDP – hit a high of 237% at the end of May, far exceeding the "significantly overvalued" range (>120%) defined by Buffett himself. Any unexpected negative news could accelerate the mean reversion.

Second, capital flows and sentiment are at extreme levels. The Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 8.5 in late May, firmly in the "extremely bullish" zone, which is often considered a reliable contrarian sell signal. The bullish ratio from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) remained in the 35%-45% range for most of May, indicating optimism but not extreme frenzy. Retail investors' margin debt balance remained near the historical high of around $1.3 trillion in April-May, showing still active use of leverage.

Meanwhile, "smart money" appeared to be retreating: Berkshire Hathaway's Q1 13F report showed its cash and equivalents reserve reached a historical high of approximately $397 billion, and the company continued to be a net seller of stocks in Q2. The ratio of insider selling to buying rose to relatively high levels not seen since 2021 in May.

Third, technical levels saw key breakdowns. Last Friday, the S&P 500 not only broke below its short-term moving averages but also pierced the lower rail of the uptrend channel it had been maintaining. The index is currently testing its 200-day moving average (around the 7000-7200 point range). Technical analysts like Jonathan Krinsky, Chief Market Technician at BTIG, pointed out that if the S&P 500 fails to quickly reclaim key support levels and subsequently loses the 200-day moving average, it would technically confirm the potential start of a medium-term correction, with an adjustment range possibly reaching 10%-15%.

4. Bull vs. Bear Debate: Pullback, Correction, or Start of a Bear Market?

In response to the market pullback, bulls and bears on Wall Street quickly took sides, engaging in a fierce debate.

The bearish camp argues this could be the beginning of a bubble adjustment. Some strategists point to signs of potential "stagflation" risk in the U.S. economy – while the May ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 54.0 (expanding month-over-month), inflation indicators remain sticky. They warn that corporate earnings growth may face downward revision pressure due to financing costs and demand uncertainty, and the current equity risk premium is at low levels.

Albert Edwards, a prominent strategist at Societe Generale who has long held a cautious view, warns that the AI bubble resembles past technology bubbles, potentially accompanied by capital misallocation and challenges for some companies, posing a significant risk of a substantial correction in the Nasdaq index.

The bullish camp, however, emphasizes this is a healthy, overdue adjustment within a bull market. David Kostin, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, acknowledges high valuations but believes the market, driven by earnings growth, still has support. He projects S&P 500 earnings per share will grow by about 7% in 2026, with AI-driven productivity improvements starting to improve corporate profit margins in the second half of the year. "The strong non-farm data precisely proves the economy is not in a hard landing, and recession risk is extremely low. Once interest rate panic subsides, capital will rediscover the solidity of the earnings base." Goldman Sachs maintains a relatively high year-end target for the S&P 500, previously raising it to the 6900-7600 range.

UBS Global Wealth Management also advises clients to "buy the dip," citing still-healthy household and corporate balance sheets, and that corporate stock buyback plans will continue to provide a buffer for the market.

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, offers a pragmatic middle ground: "A 'top' is never a single point but a process. Currently, the phase of broad-based rally driven by liquidity and sentiment is over. We are entering a stock-pickers' market driven by fundamentals. Market indices may trade in a range and drift slightly lower over the coming months, but we won't see a 2008-style collapse unless we witness a freeze in credit markets."

5. Key Future Junctures: Inflation Data and the Fed's 'Judgment'

Undoubtedly, two major events in the coming week will serve as critical watersheds determining the nature of this adjustment. On Wednesday, June 10, the U.S. May Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. The market generally expects core CPI to rise around 2.8%-2.9% year-over-year (April was 2.8%). A significant upside surprise would further strengthen market concerns about "inflation stickiness," potentially pushing back expectations for Fed rate cuts further, thereby increasing pressure on both bond and stock markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16-17 will be a crucial observation window. Following the strong June 5 non-farm data, several Fed officials reiterated the need for caution. Officials like Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasized that while the labor market shows resilience, interest rates may need to stay at their current elevated levels for a longer period. The upcoming Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) will be closely watched. If the median projection suggests fewer rate cuts in 2026 than previously expected, or even hints at maintaining rates throughout the year, market expectations for the rate path will undergo a significant restructuring.

Furthermore, geopolitical and trade policy risks also introduce potential additional uncertainty. The U.S. has already implemented import tariffs and export controls on advanced semiconductors to bolster domestic supply chain security and limit the outflow of key technologies. With fragile sentiment in tech stocks, this ongoing policy direction could still have long-term impacts on the global AI supply chain, potentially raising the inflation floor and consequently compressing valuations for some companies.

Summary

Back to the initial question: "Have U.S. stocks peaked?"

For investors, all the necessary conditions to confirm a long-term top – extreme valuations, policy shift, a weakening core narrative, retail investor frenzy, and technical breakdowns – are appearing simultaneously for the first time in over a decade. Historical experience shows that when these signals resonate strongly, even if the bull market doesn't end immediately, the risk-reward ratio has already deteriorated significantly. The market is currently in a fragile transition period from "narrative" to "reality." The long-term productivity promise of the AI revolution must now begin to withstand the rigorous scrutiny of every macro data point and earnings report.

The era of unilaterally betting on the market rising forever may be over. Caution is the most fundamental respect for risk. Over the next two weeks, investors need to watch every decimal point in the May CPI report and every subtle shift in the Fed's dot plot. Together, they will determine whether this summer is an episode within a bull market or the prelude to a new era.