UFO文件公开后，预测市场只给外星人存在概率定价20%？

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

Last night, the U.S. Department of Defense officially launched a dedicated UFO archive website and released the first batch of government documents related to UAPs, unidentified flying objects, and suspected extraterrestrial life. According to public reports, this initial release comprises over 160 documents, including videos, photos, mission logs, eyewitness reports, communication records, and historical archives, involving multiple U.S. federal agencies such as NASA, the FBI, and the Department of Defense.

These documents are not just abstract government reports; they contain a wealth of specific imagery and historical records. For instance, an Apollo mission spacecraft captured three anomalous points of light hovering over the lunar surface, and communication logs from Apollo 17 include astronauts discussing mysterious objects approaching the spacecraft. Other materials show unexplained objects sighted in the United Arab Emirates, Greece, Iraq, and elsewhere.

More viral are the specific unsolved cases detailed in the documents. A jellyfish-like object was observed over the UAE, some records depict suspected glowing orbs and an eight-pointed star-shaped UFO, and the FBI also photographed an anomalous target near a U.S. military aircraft. One image released by the Pentagon also shows an unidentified object over the western United States in September 2025.

An image released by the Pentagon supposedly shows an unidentified object over the western United States in September 2025 (Source: U.S. Department of Defense)

Compared to plain text reports, these visuals and eyewitness accounts are more likely to rapidly spread the UFO discussion, making this release seem like a concentrated showcase of "declassified files."

But the prediction markets offered a much calmer verdict than social media. Following the release of the first batch of UFO files, the probability on the prediction market  predict.fun for the event "Will the US confirm aliens exist by December 31, 2026?" did not surge dramatically due to this explosive news. The market did not interpret this disclosure as an imminent confirmation by the U.S., and the probability remains at just 20%.

Source: https://predict.fun/market/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027

So why didn't this UFO file release significantly alter the prediction market's assessment?

The Prediction Market Isn't Betting on Whether Aliens Exist, But on Whether the US Government Will Acknowledge Them

Upon seeing the 20% probability, many might initially think the prediction market believes there's only a 20% chance aliens exist. But this misunderstands the market itself.

What markets like predict.fun truly trade on is not whether extraterrestrial life exists in the universe, but whether the U.S. government will explicitly confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or alien technology before 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2026. According to the market's settlement rules, the market will only settle as 'Yes' if the U.S. President, a Cabinet member, a Joint Chiefs of Staff member, or a federal agency makes such a clear statement; otherwise, it settles as 'No'. The primary source for settlement is official U.S. government information, also considering consensus from credible media reports.

This rule is crucial. It means a single UFO video isn't enough, a blurry photo isn't enough, an astronaut communication log isn't enough, and military admissions of temporarily unexplained phenomena aren't enough. What can trigger a 'Yes' is the U.S. government speaking clearly and explicitly enough to acknowledge the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology.

Releasing documents simply puts more material before the public. Official confirmation means the government is endorsing a conclusion. The former generates discussion, the latter triggers settlement. Between them lies a line that is very difficult to cross.

Archive Release is Not an Answer Release

This UFO file release is indeed not an ordinary information update. The Pentagon is using a dedicated website to centrally release relevant materials and has indicated that more documents will be released in batches. For the public, this means that UFO and UAP data previously scattered across different agencies, eras, and filing systems are being reorganized into a single official portal. This centralizes the discussion and makes it easier for outsiders to track what materials the U.S. government possesses.

However, based on the disclosed content, this batch of files seems more like presenting historical sightings, anomalous imagery, mission logs, and old archives to the public, rather than providing a unified explanation for these materials. The Department of Defense hasn't directly told the public "what this is." Instead, it has released more unsolved cases, leaving the judgment to the public.

This places this release in a delicate position. It increases transparency without changing the nature of the events. The UFO discussion has gained more material, but this material primarily expands the scope of the problem itself rather than moving anomalous phenomena towards confirmation of extraterrestrial origin.

For prediction markets, this file release is more like a new starting point for observation than evidence sufficient to rewrite the odds. It brings the UFO topic back to center stage, making subsequent file updates tradeable; but the first batch primarily consists of historical records, eyewitness reports, and unexplained imagery. The market is truly waiting for a higher-level, harder-to-avoid, and more official qualitative signal.

Is 20% an Underestimate or an Overestimate?

From an emotional standpoint, 20% might seem low. After all, the UFO file release has entered an official rhythm, and more materials will continue to be released. If clearer military footage or higher-level internal records emerge, or if a federal agency provides a more direct assessment, the 'Yes' price could still be rapidly revalued.

However, from a market pricing perspective, 20% isn't considered low. This market isn't trading on a perpetual question but one with a specific deadline. The market must judge not just whether the U.S. will confirm extraterrestrial life or technology, but whether this confirmation will occur before the end of 2026.

Time itself is a barrier. Even if subsequent files are released and more unsolved cases enter the public eye, it doesn't mean the U.S. government will complete evidence review, internal coordination, and political assessment within months to reach a sufficiently clear conclusion. For the official system, continuing to disclose materials is one thing; reaching a definitive classification in a short time is another.

Therefore, the current 20% probability seems more like a tail pricing with a time discount. It doesn't deny that subsequent files might create further volatility, but it indicates the market believes the initial public release has not changed the fundamental assessment of the event. For traders, the file release itself is not scarce; what is truly scarce is the key signal that could push for official classification before the end of this year. Until such a signal appears, it's difficult for the 'Yes' price to be significantly driven higher by archive updates alone.

When UFOs Enter Prediction Markets, Truth Starts to Have a Price

The most discussable aspect of this event is no longer just a single photo, video, or jellyfish-like object. UFOs have long remained trapped between emotion, belief, and conspiratorial narratives. Believers see more clues in every file release; skeptics continue to emphasize lack of evidence, misidentification, and technical noise. Both sides have argued for years, struggling to truly convince each other because they often debate different questions.

Prediction markets pull this issue closer to reality. They don't attempt to answer whether other life exists in the universe. Instead, they narrow the question to a more concrete level – will the U.S. government explicitly acknowledge extraterrestrial life or alien technology before the end of this year? This transforms a previously ungroundable imagination into an event that can be traded, settled, and adjusted as information changes.

Therefore, this ~20% probability is not a final judgment on the existence of extraterrestrial life. It is the market's assessment of whether the U.S. government will 'crack' by the end of this year. It truly reflects traders' comprehensive judgment on the chain of evidence, official statements, and time constraints.

As the oldest human mystery enters prediction markets, truth is no longer just awaited and discussed; it is also being priced. UFOs might still linger in the sky, but when they will be officially confirmed, moving from unknown phenomena to factual conclusions, has landed on the trading floor.