US Crypto Policy in the Second Half: CLARITY Act Seeks 60 Votes, CFTC “One-Person Commission” Becomes the Biggest Variable

Original Author: Cleve Mesidor (Executive Director, Blockchain Foundation of Washington D.C.)

Original Compilation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

In this sports season filled with Cinderella stories, the crypto industry is also awaiting its own moment in the spotlight – the CLARITY Act currently advancing in the U.S. Senate could be that pivotal comeback. However, with two quarters left until the final buzzer, securing 60 votes for passage might require Republicans to reach a compromise with the White House on ethical issues, while also persuading a few still-hesitant Republican senators.

It's only halftime now, with six months left in the year; anything is possible. Legislative victories and scoring points in a game are fundamentally similar – they require multiple factors to align precisely. Sometimes, a bit of sage burning for good luck doesn't hurt – just like the New York Knicks have shown this year.

The second half of the policy year will be a critical period of intensive negotiations between the two parties in both the Senate and the House. Zooming out, market structure legislation is just one piece of a larger playbook aimed at building a comprehensive policy and regulatory framework for Web3 and DeFi.

The congressional calendar is already packed, with only about 40 legislative working days remaining – even factoring in the lame-duck session and midterm elections, the time left for maneuvering and adjusting the score is extremely tight.

Congested Policy Arena

Beyond the prospects of the CLARITY Act, can the multiple crypto tax proposals carved out of the new PARITY Act hitch a ride on broader legislative vehicles and become law this year?

Can the core language of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act pull off a 'Hail Mary' pass, codifying protections for developers into law?

Additionally, the full-court press around the GENUIS rulemaking continues, with key provisions still pending finalization.

For crypto enthusiasts, this feels like following a season-long sport: rich on paper, full of suspense, exciting yet nerve-wracking.

CFTC Missing Its Starting Lineup

The fact that a financial regulatory agency is missing four commissioners has deeply worried the industry. For the crypto sector, this directly impacts expectations of action in Washington – uncertainty remains high over whether new commissioners can be nominated and confirmed this year.

More challenging is the question of who will win the jurisdiction battle over prediction markets? Will it be the states, or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)? Or will it ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court?

Of course, this is not suggesting you place any bets.

Crypto Champions About to Retire

Regardless of the final policy outcomes, the rest of the year is likely to be bittersweet. Two heavyweight crypto champions are about to hang up their federal jerseys, and their departures will have significant short- and long-term impacts: SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce and U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis.

Peirce, as a two-term commissioner leading the SEC's Crypto Task Force, has been a central architect of cross-regulatory coordination efforts. Lummis, chairing the Senate Banking Committee's Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has been a key negotiator for bipartisan compromise and a strong advocate for the BRCA.

Outlook for the Second Half: Industry Leaders' Views

I interviewed several senior industry leaders to gauge their assessments of the current crypto policy deliberations. Here are their perspectives on CLARITY, taxes, and prediction markets:

Sara K. Weed (Partner, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP):

"Undeniably, we are steadily moving in the right direction. However, constrained by a shortage of legislative days and election pressures, the probability of CLARITY passing in this Congress is slim. Therefore, agencies like the SEC and CFTC will be forced to play a more active role, providing much-needed certainty to the industry. The question, of course, is how far they can go under their existing authorities."

Sulolit "Raj" Mukherjee (CEO, Bodin Advisory):

"If history is any guide, meaningful crypto tax legislation is most likely to pass not as a standalone bill, but embedded within broader tax, budget, or year-end legislative packages. The current proposals are relatively focused, enjoy bipartisan consensus, and aim to solve specific issues like de minimis exemptions, staking tax treatment, wash sale rules, and information reporting requirements. These provisions are easier to advance when attached to must-pass legislation. Ultimately, enactment depends on congressional bandwidth, scoring mechanisms, and whether lawmakers view crypto tax rules as technical fixes to improve compliance, separate from the broader digital asset policy debate. There is a genuine chance at least one or two measures become law this year, but likely through omnibus packaging rather than standalone crypto tax bills."

Rashan Colbert (US Policy Director, Crypto Council for Innovation):

"I won't predict how the courts will resolve jurisdictional disputes, but the direction is clear: as the prediction market category matures, the CFTC is working towards a more durable regulatory framework for it. The recently released NPRM is another step towards providing greater transparency and legal certainty for market participants – a sector experiencing rapid growth in both user base and trading volume.

The core question is: Should prediction markets primarily be viewed as financial market infrastructure, or broadly classified as gambling? I believe these markets have the potential to become sophisticated tools for expressing views, hedging risks, and simplifying access to derivatives on various events and assets. Adopting an overly broad gambling framework could risk stifling their potential before they have a chance to develop into positive-sum financial infrastructure."

The second half of the crypto policy game has begun. The window of time is tight, but the window of opportunity remains. The industry needs sustained bipartisan communication and pragmatic action to achieve substantial results by 2026.