“人形机器人第一股”宇树科技到底值多少钱？

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010 )

On August 10, Unitree Robotics, known as "China's first humanoid robot stock," officially opened its subscription channel; on August 11, Unitree Robotics announced the online and offline allotment results, with an online allotment rate of only 0.01809759%, ranking among the lower rates among the 93 new stocks listed this year; the allocation ratio for offline investors was 0.03341824%, ranking sixth among the 46 newly listed stocks with offline placement this year.

For comparison, the new stock with the highest online allotment rate this year was CXMT, "China's leading storage manufacturer," which listed in July with a rate of 0.47141739%; Unitree's online allotment rate was 3.8% of CXMT's, and its offline allotment rate was 19% of CXMT's.

Such an extremely low allotment probability has also led many to look forward to Unitree's profit potential after listing. Based on an opening market cap of 200 billion yuan, one lot of 500 shares would require an investment of approximately 75,400 yuan, with an estimated floating profit of around 170,000 yuan; if calculated based on the average first-day gain of 466.61% for STAR Market new stocks this year, the floating profit per lot could reach as high as 350,000 yuan.

After listing, can Unitree's market cap surge from 61 billion to 200 billion yuan? Can Unitree founder Wang Xingxing claim the title of "STAR Market's Richest Person"? What trading opportunities will be available at the open? And how will Unitree's market performance unfold going forward? Odaily Planet Daily will explore these questions based on available information.

Allotment Results Released: Oversubscribed by Over 8,288 Times, Only 19,414 Allotment Numbers

On the evening of August 11, Unitree released its IPO preliminary offline placement results and online allotment results announcement. Ultimately, there were approximately 19,414 online allotment numbers, and 313 offline institutional investors were allocated 22.65 million shares.

This online subscription attracted a total of 9.7846 million retail investors, setting a new record for STAR Market subscription participants, surpassing the 9.4288 million participants in CXMT's offering; the total valid subscription shares reached 53.637 billion, with an initial online valid subscription multiple as high as 8,288.82 times.

Due to the overwhelming subscription demand, Unitree activated the clawback mechanism, transferring 10% of the shares after deducting the final strategic placement—323.6 million shares—from offline to online allocation to satisfy retail investors' subscription enthusiasm. The final allotment rate was raised from the initial 0.012% to approximately 0.018%, yet this rate still set a new historic low for the STAR Market.

Beyond the online and offline allocations, Unitree's strategic placement list this time can also be described as an "all-star lineup."

IPO Strategic Placement List: Includes State-Owned Enterprises, State Capital Funds, Tech Giants, AI Companies, and Multiple Brokerages

In the list of "strategic placement investors" deeply tied to Unitree, organizations including the National Social Security Fund's affiliated entities, AI company DeepSeek, China National Petroleum Corporation, China Southern Power Grid, China Telecom's subsidiaries, Tencent's affiliates, and CITIC Securities are all on the list.

According to Wang Xingxing himself, DeepSeek will provide Unitree with commercially competitive cooperation proposals, including but not limited to technical support in model architecture solutions, intelligent computing cluster construction, and data center operations (if applicable) based on demand and business development; the latter is a large enterprise with strategic cooperation relationships or long-term cooperation vision with the company in business operations, capable of engaging in strategic cooperation with the company, possessing important resources within the same industry or along the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and able to enhance the company's market competitiveness. Most other strategic placement investors play similar roles, with CITIC Securities in particular deeply participating through a combination of "equity investment + IPO follow-on investment," with five other brokerages indirectly investing via LP status. In terms of external support, Unitree has garnered favor from multiple institutions, including state-owned enterprises, state capital funds, technology giants, AI companies, and brokerages.

Additionally, Unitree employees also launched two asset management plans to participate in strategic placement: the No. 1 plan raised 218.5 million yuan, and the No. 2 plan raised 53 million yuan. Participants in the No. 1 plan include 161 people, such as CFO Wang Feng, while the No. 2 plan includes 10 people, such as Chairman Wang Xingxing, with Wang personally subscribing 15 million yuan. This demonstrates that Unitree employees are betting their own money on the company's long-term development.

IPO Data Overview: "Fastest Approval Target of the Year," Total Fundraising of 6.1 Billion Yuan, Initial Free Float of Approximately 7.36%

Unitree's offering price is 150.8 yuan per share, with 40.4464 million shares issued, representing 10% of the total post-issuance share capital, raising approximately 6.099 billion yuan—45.15% more than the originally planned 4.202 billion yuan. From acceptance on March 20 to approval took only 73 days, and the IPO subscription by August 10 took less than five months in total, marking the fastest record of the year.

Regarding lock-up restrictions on offline issued shares, according to Unitree's announcement data from yesterday, the offline issuance volume after the strategic placement clawback is 25.886148 million shares, accounting for approximately 80.00% of the issuance volume after deducting the final strategic placement amount. Of these, 90% have no lock-up period and are tradable from the date the shares list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange; 10% have a six-month lock-up period, calculated from the date the shares begin trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

According to previous data, based on a total share capital of approximately 404 million shares post-issuance, the tradable shares on the first day of listing amount to approximately 29.77 million shares, representing about 7.36% of the total share capital, with over 90% of shares under lock-up.

Pre-Market Pricing: Per-Share Price Temporarily Around $87.8, Market Cap of $35.47 Billion

trade.xyz data shows that Unitree's pre-IPO perpetual contract price is temporarily reported at around $87.8, and based on a total share capital of 404 million shares, the market cap is temporarily reported at $35.47 billion, equivalent to approximately 239 billion yuan.

Prediction Market: Probability of Unitree Closing Market Cap Above 200 Billion Yuan Temporarily at 75%

Prediction market platforms have also made forecasts for Unitree's closing market cap. predict.fun platform data shows:

• Probability of Unitree closing market cap above 200 billion yuan: temporarily 75%;
• Probability of Unitree closing market cap above 250 billion yuan: temporarily 43%;
• Probability of Unitree closing market cap above 300 billion yuan: temporarily 18%.

Profit Range Per Lot: 170,000 to 350,000 Yuan, Wang Xingxing Could Become "STAR Market's Richest Person"

According to estimates, if benchmarked against the average first-day gain of 276.04% for A-share new stocks since 2026, the paper profit for one lot of Unitree could exceed 200,000 yuan; if benchmarked against the average first-day gain of 466.61% for STAR Market new stocks this year, the profit per lot could reach 351,800 yuan.

If Unitree surges to a market cap of 200 billion yuan at the open, the corresponding share price would be approximately 500 yuan, and the market value of one lot of 500 shares would soar to 250,000 yuan, with a floating profit of approximately 170,000 yuan.

Unitree founder Wang Xingxing holds approximately 30% of the company directly and indirectly after listing. If Unitree's market cap rises above 200 billion yuan, his shareholding value would reach 60 billion yuan, directly surpassing Chen Weiliang of MetaX (Muxi) to become the richest person on China's STAR Market. At present, the prospects look promising.

IPO Fund Allocation Plan: 85% of Funds for R&D, Focusing on the Full Robotics Industry Chain

In terms of IPO fundraising direction, 85% of Unitree's raised funds will be invested in various R&D projects. The four major directions are: 2.022 billion yuan for intelligent robot model R&D, 1.11 billion yuan for robot body R&D, 445 million yuan for new intelligent robot product development, and 624 million yuan for intelligent robot manufacturing base construction.

Unitree expects that in the first half of 2026, the company's operating revenue will be between 1.052 billion and 1.128 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.62% to 45.41%; net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 258 million and 306 million yuan; net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 236 million and 283 million yuan. Nevertheless, Unitree's current price-to-earnings ratio excluding non-recurring items of 219 times remains highly controversial, and there is significant divergence in the market regarding Unitree's valuation.

Market Cap Debate: 100 Billion, 200 Billion, or Beyond 400 Billion?

At present, the market cap expectations for Unitree from institutions and individual investors span a relatively wide range.

Looking at revenue data from the past three years, from 2023 to 2025, Unitree's revenue climbed from 159 million yuan to 1.699 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 226.78%; net profit after deducting non-recurring items turned from a loss of 18.0191 million yuan to a profit of 591 million yuan; gross margin on main business rose from 44.22% to 60.13%, with humanoid robot gross margin reaching as high as 63.18%. In 2025, operating cash flow was 670 million yuan, with 1.419 billion yuan in cash on the books and virtually no interest-bearing debt. Although in the first quarter of 2026, the company's revenue was 423 million yuan, with year-on-year growth slowing from 332.64% for full-year 2025 to 68.49%, and net profit after deducting non-recurring items fell to 40.2536 million yuan, down 52.55% year-on-year, Wang Xingxing attributed this to "a significantly higher revenue base, gradually cooling industry sentiment, and increasingly intense market competition." Large marketing expenditures during the Spring Festival also played a part.

Market Cap Expectation Range: From 109 Billion to Over 400 Billion Yuan

CCB International, based on Unitree's scarcity as "China's first humanoid robot stock," its leading global market share position, and high performance growth expectations, has given a market cap forecast of 109 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price-to-sales ratio of 32 times for 2026. Some market institutions, based on long-term industry potential, have given optimistic expectations of 200 billion to 300 billion yuan.

CITIC has given a bullish view of Unitree growing to approximately 20 times price-to-sales within 6 to 12 months. If Unitree meets this condition, its revenue would need to grow to 11.5 billion yuan, requiring roughly a 7-fold increase from its 2025 revenue base of 1.7 billion yuan.

"White-haired stock god" Serenity stated in a post that Unitree's IPO received over 8,000 times oversubscription from retail investors, reflecting an "extremely huge" market demand for pure-play humanoid robot companies. He believes that Unitree's pre-IPO perpetual contract market valuation already indicates high expectations, and if the market cap exceeds $30 billion after listing, it could further increase market attention on leading U.S. humanoid robot companies in the coming one to two weeks.

Yu Wenchao, an early investor in Unitree and partner at Dunhong Asset, gave the boldest forecast: "A market cap exceeding 200 billion yuan after listing is very reasonable, and I think it could even surpass 400 billion in the short term. Compared to overseas peers' valuations, this is not exaggerated."

In response to a question raised during the IPO roadshow about whether the stock would "break issue price," Unitree founder Wang Xingxing replied: "Please pay attention to the stock price trend after the company lists." His tone was notably confident, conveying a sense of "let's wait and see."

Wang Xingxing Responds: Global No. 1 in Humanoid Robot Shipments, "Brain" Shortcoming Addressed

In response to the controversy raised at the roadshow regarding "a P/E ratio excluding non-recurring items of 219 times, far exceeding the industry average of 38.56 times," Wang Xingxing stated that based on 2025 net profit after deducting non-recurring items, the issue price (150.5 yuan) corresponds to a P/E ratio of 92.92 times; the embodied intelligence industry in which the company operates has vast market space, and the pricing is consistent with the company's operational status and industry development.

In 2025, Unitree shipped over 5,500 humanoid robots