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SK Hynix's latest earnings report—can it be a lifeline for memory chips?

BIT
特邀专栏作者
2026-07-29 08:30
บทความนี้มีประมาณ 2067 คำ การอ่านทั้งหมดใช้เวลาประมาณ 3 นาที
The long-term demand logic for chip stocks (AI-driven) remains intact, but short-to-medium-term macro headwinds (geopolitics, oil price volatility, profit-taking) are suppressing valuations.
สรุปโดย AI
ขยาย
  • Core View: Although SK Hynix's Q2 revenue fell short of expectations, signals such as a 30% rise in DRAM prices and positive Q3 shipment guidance triggered a rebound in chip stocks. Meanwhile, the market is focusing on companies with more robust AI strategies like Apple and Google, and structural opportunities arising from Circle's acquisition of IBM patents. The overall landscape is characterized by short-term technical rebounds coexisting with long-term macro headwinds.
  • Key Elements:
    1. SK Hynix reported Q2 revenue of 79 trillion KRW, below the expected 84 trillion KRW. However, chip stocks rebounded after the earnings report, driven by a 30% quarter-over-quarter surge in average DRAM selling prices, restoring profit margins.
    2. Management guided Q3 shipments to grow 10% quarter-over-quarter, indicating demand hasn't collapsed but is slowing. HBM production capacity is expected to increase significantly in the second half of the year, benefiting the mobile and PC supply chain.
    3. Heightened US-Iran tensions, oil price volatility, and the significant prior rally in chip stocks constitute macro headwinds. The semiconductor sector is unlikely to receive a strong short-term catalyst, making the rebound potentially technical in nature.
    4. Apple and Google stocks stabilized during the chip stock sell-off due to differentiated AI investment strategies—Google focusing on self-developed TPUs, Apple on on-device AI—rather than indiscriminate spending.
    5. Circle acquired over 680 patent families and nearly 1,000 global patents from IBM, becoming the company holding the most blockchain patents in the US, thereby strengthening the moat around its USDC business.
    6. Affected by the crypto market downturn, Circle's token price fell to around $60. The combination of a strengthened technological foundation and bearish sentiment is viewed by some as a "golden pit" representing a potential value investment opportunity.
    7. The market suggests two strategies: hedging chip stock risk through BIT platform options or securities lending, or rotating into mispriced assets with improving fundamentals, such as Apple, Google, and Circle.

Last night, the US semiconductor sector once again suffered a brutal sell-off. SK Hynix and Micron both plunged nearly 9%, while SanDisk saw a steep 14% drop. Such declines would normally dominate financial headlines, but they are now almost causing "aesthetic fatigue"—major chip stock drops are transitioning from "news" to "routine." There's even a joke circulating in the market that SK Hynix's stock price volatility is now almost on par with meme coins.

This morning, however, the narrative took a turn. SK Hynix released its latest quarterly earnings: Q2 revenue was 79 trillion Korean won, below the market's prior expectation of 84 trillion won. A "failing" earnings report, logically, should have fueled another sell-off following last night's plunge. Yet paradoxically, chip stocks rebounded after the earnings release.

The root of this lies in the positive signals hidden within the financial report.

I. Hidden Bright Spots in the Earnings Report

Although total revenue fell short by a full 5 trillion Korean won, the report contains several positive signals overlooked by the market.

First is DRAM pricing. The average selling price of DRAM in Q2 surged 30% compared to Q1. This indicates that while overall revenue missed the mark, the profitability of core products is actually improving—they are selling at higher prices, and profit margins are recovering.

Second is the shipment guidance. During the earnings conference call, management clearly indicated that Q3 shipment volumes could increase by another 10%. Demand hasn't collapsed; it's just lagging behind expectations by one beat.

More crucially is the HBM production capacity. In the second half of the year, SK Hynix's High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) capacity is set to increase significantly. For the mobile phone and PC industries long plagued by chip shortages, this is undeniably good news—a smoother supply chain allows the entire ecosystem to function.

II. But Don't Rush to Buy the Dip Just Yet

The highlights in the earnings report are real, but the headwinds from the macroeconomic environment are equally real.

Tensions between the US and Iran persist, and any disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz could impact global supply chains and energy prices. Oil prices are volatile, causing inflation expectations to fluctuate. Coupled with excessive gains in chip stocks earlier on, profit-taking could occur at any moment.

With these forces converging, it's difficult for the semiconductor sector to receive a "shot in the arm" in the short term. The rebound might be technical. A true trend reversal requires more time to confirm.

In other words, the market's focus moving forward should not only be on SK Hynix's earnings data but also on whether the macro environment can provide a stable operating backdrop for the chip sector.

III. Signals for Rotating Sectors: Why Are Apple and Google Stabilizing Against the Trend?

While the chip sector was in disarray, a different picture emerged in the US market last night.

Apple and Google's stock prices not only didn't fall but even saw slight recoveries. Against the overall pressure on the Nasdaq, the resilience of these two giants stands out conspicuously.

The reasons behind this, as we've mentioned in previous articles, include:

  • The AI investment strategies of these established giants differ markedly from those frantically building their own infrastructure. Although Google's capital expenditure is also high, a significant portion is invested in its proprietary TPU chips—representing "differentiated investment" rather than "copycat arms race";
  • Apple, meanwhile, remains extremely cautious in its AI spending, largely refraining from participating in the large model training race, focusing instead on on-device AI and device integration.

When the market begins to question the returns on "unrestrained spending," those players who spend the least, or spend most wisely, ironically become safe havens. This stylistic shift could be a crucial clue for capital reallocation in the coming period.

IV. Bargain Hunting in the "Discount Zone"

Just as the market's attention was fixed on chip stocks, Circle quietly closed a significant acquisition: acquiring core assets of a blockchain patent portfolio from IBM, including over 680 patent families and nearly 1,000 globally granted patents.

What does this deal mean?

Circle has instantly become the company holding the most blockchain patents in the United States. These patents will directly reinforce the technological moat for its USDC stablecoin, CPN payment network, Arc platform, and overall on-chain financial infrastructure. In an environment with increasing regulatory scrutiny and rising compliance barriers, a patent portfolio is a voice in the industry and a competitive moat.

Prior to this, Circle's stock price, dragged down by the crypto market downturn, once fell to around $60. When a company's technological foundation is strengthening but its stock price is depressed by sentiment, it often presents what value investors see as a "golden opportunity."

V. Final Thoughts: Insure Yourself, or Switch Tracks

The current market landscape is highly complex. The long-term demand logic for chip stocks (AI-driven) remains intact, but short-to-medium-term macro headwinds (geopolitics, oil price volatility, profit-taking) are suppressing valuations. The intertwining of these two logical threads makes directional judgment extremely difficult.

In this environment, there are two relatively rational approaches:

First, insure your existing positions.

BIT exchange's options feature is now officially live. If you hold shares of chip stocks like SK Hynix, Micron, or SanDisk, you can hedge downside risk by buying Put Options—if the stock price continues to suffer from macro headwinds, the appreciation of the options can offset losses in the underlying stock; if it rebounds, the maximum loss is only the option premium.

Additionally, BIT exchange offers margin trading capabilities. If an investor is bearish on a particular stock, they can also short-sell it directly on the platform.

Second, consider rotating sectors or bargain hunting.

If you believe the short-term pressure on memory chips hasn't fully dissipated, consider turning your attention to assets with more disciplined AI spending and more stable valuations—such as Apple or Google. Alternatively, look at assets like Circle, which may have been unfairly punished by sentiment but have improving fundamentals. On the BIT platform, you can directly trade these real US stocks listed on the Nasdaq and utilize margin trading features to amplify return potential or flexibly deploy short positions, allowing capital efficiency to be fully realized even in a volatile market.

The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks are people who can stay clear-headed amidst the noise.

Risk Warning

Options trading and margin trading both carry the risk of principal loss. Short selling can lead to unlimited losses and incurs interest costs and the risk of forced liquidation. Historical data does not guarantee future performance. This article is solely market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance.

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