中国 photolithography machines are about to enter the DeepSeek era? Are U.S. stocks facing selling pressure again?

Last night, the U.S. semiconductor sector once again faced a brutal sell-off.

SanDisk closed down 11%, SK Hynix fell over 7%, with its stock price officially breaking below the IPO price of $149. Even Nvidia, the usually steady industry leader, tumbled 5%.

This morning, the panic spread across the Pacific, triggering another circuit breaker in South Korea's stock market. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both saw their Korean shares plummet, dragging the KOSPI index sharply downward.

All of this points to a single variable: the rise of China's chip industry is fundamentally reshaping the pricing logic of the global memory market.

1. CXMT Tops A-Share Market, Domestic DUV Equipment Nears Delivery

Yesterday, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) officially began trading on the A-share market.

On its debut day, its market capitalization directly topped the A-share market—a figure sufficient to shake the global semiconductor industry. For a considerable period prior, the market for high-end memory chips (HBM, DRAM, NAND) was tightly controlled by Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung. CXMT's ascendancy signifies that this once 'solid bloc' of a market structure is starting to crack.

Following closely was an even more critical piece of news: according to industry sources, the first batch of domestic DUV lithography equipment is planned for delivery to domestic chip manufacturers, including SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and CXMT. As a representative company in China's DRAM industry, CXMT is expected to become a key application scenario for advanced domestic semiconductor equipment.

It is important to clarify that this does not mean China has achieved a technological breakthrough in EUV or HBM. The delivery of domestic DUV equipment still has a long way to go before it truly changes the global lithography machine landscape. However, market pricing logic never equates to reality—markets trade on 'expectations,' not 'current conditions.'

2. The 'Scarcity Premium' Is Being Dismantled

The combination of CXMT's listing and the delivery of domestic equipment impacts the market not on a technological level, but on a valuation level.

Historically, Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung enjoyed extremely high valuation premiums, largely relying on a core narrative: the global supply of high-end memory chips is controlled by a very small number of manufacturers, and this scarcity grants them immense pricing power. When AI demand surged, they could raise prices at will; when capacity was tight, they could pick and choose their customers.

But CXMT's rise is dismantling this narrative.

Once CXMT secures stable domestic expansion tools, DRAM supply will inevitably increase. What Samsung and SK Hynix face is not just a hit to next quarter's profit figures, but the long-term premium supporting their market caps—the premium based on 'scarcity and pricing power.'

When the market realizes that 'monopoly status is not eternal,' a rapid revaluation occurs.

3. The Fate of U.S. Chip Stocks Now Depends on Others

The stock price trend of SK Hynix is showing an interesting characteristic: U.S. stocks fall first, followed by Korean stocks.

This indicates that global capital is using the U.S. stock market, which offers the best liquidity, as a pricing window to reassess the long-term logic of the memory industry in advance. After SK Hynix's U.S. stock price broke below its $149 IPO price, arbitrage pressure and emotional contagion quickly spread to the domestic Korean market. Combined with the high weighting of Samsung and SK Hynix in the KOSPI index, individual stock deleveraging was amplified into an index-level panic.

This time, the fate of U.S. chip stocks is no longer solely in their own hands.

Moving forward, the market's focus should not only be on whether SK Hynix's earnings report on July 29th can secure HBM4 orders and cash flow but also on a deeper variable: whether domestic DUV equipment can pass market validation, enabling CXMT to significantly expand production and thereby intensify global memory price competition.

4. Signal for a Sector Shift: Why Are Apple and Google Stabilizing?

While chip stocks were in disarray, a different picture emerged in the U.S. market last night.

Apple and Google's stock prices did not fall but instead recovered slightly. Against the backdrop of a broad sell-off in the Nasdaq, the resilience of these two giants appeared particularly striking.

The underlying reason may lie in their vastly different strategies for AI capital expenditure compared to companies aggressively building their own infrastructure.

Apple and Google prefer to lease computing power rather than build massive data centers themselves. Although Google's capital expenditure is also high, a large portion is directed toward developing its proprietary TPU chips (Frozen v2), which constitutes 'differentiated investment' rather than a 'copycat arms race.' Apple, meanwhile, has remained extremely cautious in its AI investments, largely refraining from participating in the large language model training race and focusing instead on on-device AI and device integration.

When the market begins to question the returns of 'unrestrained spending,' the players that spend the least, or spend the smartest, become safe havens. This shift in style could be a significant clue for capital reallocation in the coming period.

5. Final Thoughts: Insure Yourself, or Change Tracks

The current market landscape is highly complex. The long-term demand logic for chip stocks (driven by AI) remains intact, but the medium-term supply landscape (the rise of China) is undergoing structural changes. The interplay of these two logic lines makes directional judgment extremely difficult.

In this environment, there are two relatively rational approaches:

First, insure your existing positions.

The options functionality at BIT exchange has officially launched. If you hold underlying chip stocks like SK Hynix, Micron, or SanDisk, you can hedge downside risk by purchasing put options. If stock prices continue to face pressure due to the China competition narrative, the appreciation of the options can offset losses in the underlying stock. If the market rebounds, the maximum loss is only the option premium paid.

Second, consider switching tracks.

If you believe the 'scarcity premium' of memory chips has been irreversibly eroded, consider shifting your focus to targets that are more restrained in AI spending and have more stable valuations—such as Apple and Google. On the BIT platform, you can directly trade these real U.S. stocks listed on the Nasdaq, allowing you to adjust your portfolio promptly.

The fate of chip stocks is shifting from 'self-sufficiency' to 'depending on others.' What investors need to do is ensure their own protection accordingly.

Risk Disclaimer: Options and U.S. stock trading involve the risk of principal loss. The maximum loss for buying put options is the premium paid, and option prices fluctuate based on implied volatility and remaining time to expiry. Option premiums bought after panic selling often already incorporate high volatility premiums. The price of underlying U.S. stocks is affected by exchange rates, industry cycles, and individual company fundamentals; historical performance does not guarantee future results. The above content is solely market observations and product function introductions, not specific investment advice. Please make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance.