Bitcoin oscillates and consolidates as direction nears, HYPE restarts bearish-driven trend | Special Analysis

This week, Bitcoin continues to rebound above the low of $57,820, with the price approaching the key resistance zone of $65,700–$67,300. The battle between bulls and bears has entered a critical stage—if the rally stalls and retreats within this zone, the daily-level correction could resume; if it breaks through effectively, the short-term structure will shift towards a stronger long scenario. HYPE continues its corrective trend from the peak of $72.97, with this week's focus on the outcome of the battle for the $62–$63.5 zone. The medium-term view remains bearish, while short-term operations strictly follow model signals, dynamically switching between Plan A and Plan B.

Core Trading Insights for This Week:

• BTC Multi-timeframe Structure Analysis (detailed in Part 1)
• BTC Price Forecast and Medium/Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week (detailed in Part 2)
• HYPE Hourly Level Structure Analysis (detailed in Part 3)
• HYPE Price Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week (detailed in Part 4)

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategy and Core Views:

• Market Validation of BTC Price Forecast: Last week's article clearly stated that Bitcoin's daily chart had entered a short-term consolidation range. The market movement validated our forecast.
• BTC Short-term Trading Results: Bitcoin completed one short-term long position (1x leverage) last week, successfully achieving a gain of approximately 3.45%. (Detailed in Part 5)
• Market Validation of HYPE Price Forecast: Last week's article clearly stated that if the price rebounds early in the week but fails to break above the previous high of $72.97, it would indicate the uptrend has reversed, potentially initiating a daily-level correction from the $72.97 peak. Market movements have strongly aligned with our judgment.

Part 1: Bitcoin Multi-timeframe Structure Analysis

1. Bitcoin Daily Level Structure Analysis (Based on analysis after May 6)Figure 1: Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart

① As shown in Figure 1, the correction that began from the May 6 high of $82,850 has formed a four-segment structure on the daily chart: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), (3-4).

② After hitting a low of $57,820 on July 1, the market is currently in the (3-4) rebound phase, which has reached a high of $65,600, approaching the key resistance at $65,700. Currently, this rebound may not be over, and the recent high of $65,600 is likely not the endpoint of "point 4."

③ If the (3-4) rebound shows signs of stalling and then a clear correction within the $65,700–$67,300 zone, the first leg (wave a) of the daily-level rebound starting from the July 1 low of $57,820 may be ending.

2. In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin Hourly Level Structure (Using 4-hour timeframe)

Figure 2: Bitcoin 4-hour K-line Chart

① On the 4-hour chart, the rebound from the July 1 low of $57,820 has clearly formed a seven-segment structure from (44-45) to (50-51). Notably, the five segments (45-46), (46-47), (47-48), (48-49), and (49-50) overlap, forming a "five-segment" consolidation zone E.

② Based on the current structural analysis, the price is in the (50-51) rebound phase.

• If the price effectively breaks above the $65,700 resistance and the rebound continues, the probability of this segment upgrading to a departure segment from the consolidation zone increases significantly. In this case, it is necessary to compare its momentum with the entry segment (44-45). If momentum divergence occurs by the end of "point 51," the rebound from "point 44" (approx. $57,820) might end, followed by a high probability of correction.
• If the rebound fails to effectively break the $65,700 resistance, the short-term range-bound consolidation probability is high.

Part 2: Bitcoin Price Forecast and Trading Strategy for This Week

1. BTC Price Forecast for This Week:

Core View: Focus on the test of the key resistance zone between $65,700 and $67,300 as the price rebounds.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $65,700–$67,300 (Previous key resistance area)
• Second Resistance Zone: $69,500–$71,000 (Previous key resistance area)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Around $64,700 (Previous key support level)
• Second Support Zone: $60,950–$62,000 (Previous key support area)
• Third Support Level: Around $57,820 (Previous key support level)

4. Trading Strategy for This Week (Excluding unforeseen news events)

① Medium-term Strategy:

Figure 3: Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, the price has effectively broken below the "bull-bear channel," confirming a shift to a bearish market structure.

• Maintain the current medium-term short position at approximately 20%.
• If the price rebounds to the $65,700–$67,300 zone and shows signs of exhaustion, combined with top signals from our quantitative model, consider increasing the medium-term short position to within 50%.

② Short-term Strategy:

Use 30% of capital with a stop-loss, seeking "spread" trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 30-minute/60-minute charts).

③ To dynamically manage complex market developments during short-term trading, we prepare two specific operational plans, A and B, in advance.

Plan A: Tentative Shorting at Strong Resistance Zone

• Entry: If the price rebounds to the $65,700–$67,300 zone and meets resistance, combined with top signals from the quantitative model, establish a short position of around 30%.
• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price corrects to key support levels, combined with signals from the quantitative model, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

Plan B: Light Long Position at Strong Support Zone

• Entry: After the price rebounds to the $65,700–$67,300 zone and retreats, if it stabilizes above the previous low of $57,820 with bottoming signals, combined with bottom signals from the quantitative model, establish a long position of around 30%.
• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price rebounds to key resistance levels, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

Part 3: HYPE Hourly Level Structure Analysis

Figure 4: HYPE 4-hour K-line Chart

1. As shown in Figure 4, the correction of HYPE that began from the July 7 high of $72.97 (point 61) can be divided into eight segments on the 4-hour chart. Among them, the five segments 62-63, 63-64, 64-65, 65-66, and 66-67 overlap, forming a "five-segment" decline consolidation zone.

2. In last week's review, it was pointed out that during the subsequent (62-63) rebound, if "point 63" fails to break above the previous high "point 61" ($72.97), this would indicate the end of the daily uptrend from "point 54 to point 61," and the market would initiate a daily-level correction from "point 61." The market adjusted as expected last week, falling from "point 63 to point 68," with a maximum decline of approximately 16.17%.

3. Based on the 4-hour chart analysis:

Comparing the momentum of the departure segment (67-68) with the entry segment (61-62), the bearish momentum of the departure segment is significantly stronger. This suggests that "point 68" ($58.16) has a low probability of being the bottom of this correction. The market is currently in the (68-69) rebound phase, after which the price may see new correction lows.

Part 4: HYPE Price Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week (July 20 – July 26)

1. HYPE Price Forecast for This Week:

① Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $62–$63.5
• Second Resistance Zone: $68–$69.5
• Third Resistance Level: Around $72.97

② Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Around $58.16
• Second Support Zone: $52–$55

Core View on HYPE This Week: Focus on the test results when the price rebounds to the $62–$63.5 zone.

2. HYPE Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week:

If the price rebounds to around $62–$63.5 or higher resistance zones and shows a clear signal of a correction, it is recommended that investors consider entering a light short position, strictly adhering to stop-loss discipline, with position size controlled within 30%.

Part 5: Bitcoin Short-term Trading Review

Strictly following our operational plan and the trading signals from our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," we executed one short-term (long) trade last week, achieving a total profit of approximately 3.45%.

1. Short-term Trade Record: (See Table 1)

Bitcoin Short-term Trade Summary: (Leverage × 1)

Table 1

2. Short-term Trade Review: (See Figure 5)

Entry Strategy:

a. When the price corrected and stabilized above the $61,000 level, the K-line formed a "bottom diverging" pattern;

b. The "Momentum Quantitative Model" generated a bullish momentum divergence signal;

c. After the "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong bottom warning signal (white dot + red dot), the signal band (orange-yellow) broke above the horizon line (magenta), emitting a bottom rebound signal.

Therefore, we established a 15% long position at $62,376.

Exit Strategy:

a. When the price rebounded to around $65,700 and showed signs of exhaustion, the K-line formed a "top diverging" pattern;

b. After the "Spread Trading Model" triggered consecutive top warning signals (white dot + green dot), the signal band (blue) broke below the skyline (green), forming a top convergence signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model."

Therefore, we closed the entire position at around $64,530.

Summary: This trade successfully yielded a profit of approximately 3.45%.

3. Short-term Trade Illustration

Figure 5: BTC 30-minute K-line Chart (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

Part 6: Special Reminders:

1. When entering a trade: Set an initial stop-loss immediately.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous tracking: For every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Financial markets change rapidly, and all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies presented in this article are based on personal technical analysis, intended solely as personal trading logs, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Market risk exists, investment requires caution, please do not make decisions based solely on this.