Gate Institutions Weekly Report: DVOL Bounces from Lows, Crypto ETF Sees Continued Capital Outflows

Summary

• Last week, global markets traded around the hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. Cooling rate cut expectations pushed US bond yields and the dollar higher, putting pressure on risk assets. The crypto market corrected in tandem, with both BTC and ETH falling over 4%.

• Overall ETF outflows persisted. Gate TradFi Perp trading remained active, with coverage of US stock assets continuing to expand. Short-term order book liquidity for XAUT weakened. The market remains in a phase of cautious trading amidst macroeconomic uncertainty.

• On-chain transaction activity saw a moderate recovery overall but did not form a comprehensive volume surge. DEX volumes showed divergence, with Uniswap slightly overtaking PancakeSwap. Activity on the Solana ecosystem warmed up. There was no significant new USD inflow in stablecoin supply; capital movement remains primarily based on existing holdings rotation, while mid-tier stablecoins showed some resilience.

•  The DeFi market entered a phase of structural repair. LSTs, Aave lending, and protocol revenues all showed improvement, driven mainly by asset price recovery and core liquidity market repair. Capital shows preference for mature collateral, stable yields, and trading-focused protocols. Stablecoin issuance remains the core revenue source for the industry.

• The BTC derivatives market continued its deleveraging process. OI dropped rapidly, but the funding rate remained positive, indicating cooling long sentiment without turning bearish. Meanwhile, options volume cooled, Skew weakened, and DVOL rebounded, reflecting a rise in short-term defensive demand and a re-emergence of volatility expectations.

1. Market Focus Analysis

Last week (June 15 to 21, 2026), the core event for global macro markets was the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made comments interpreted as hawkish during his first post-meeting press conference. The target range for the federal funds rate was held steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but the latest dot plot completely removed expectations for rate cuts in 2026, with 9 of the 18 officials even predicting at least one rate hike this year. Warsh also stated that forward guidance is no longer suitable for the current policy environment. Reacting to this, US bond yields rose sharply, with the 2-year Treasury yield hitting a new one-year high. The stock market experienced significant volatility on 'Fed Day'—although for the weekly close, the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.43%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.93%, and the Russell 2000 gained 1.21%, the intraday selloff on Wednesday, the day of the press conference, was described by media as the "worst Fed Day since the new chair took office." The US Dollar Index strengthened following the hawkish expectations, putting pressure on commodities. Gold prices oscillated amidst the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and a strong dollar. Oil prices edged lower due to demand concerns. Regarding economic data, the market is closely monitoring inflation and employment data to gauge whether the Fed might truly pivot to rate hikes this year. No major Nonfarm Payrolls or CPI data was released during the week, so market sentiment was dominated by expectations. Geopolitically, the situation in the Middle East, along with ongoing US domestic tax reform and debt ceiling negotiations, continued to exert influence on market nerves, leading to a generally cautious risk appetite.

On the crypto market front, liquidity tightening concerns triggered by the hawkish Fed expectations had a significant impact on digital assets. BTC fell about 4% for the week, dropping from a weekly high of $67,300 on Monday to a low near $62,300 around Thursday, before slightly rebounding to close near $63,300 over the weekend. ETH fell deeper than BTC, dropping about 5%. It hit a high of approximately $1,850 on Monday before retreating with the broader market and closing near $1,700 on Sunday. Altcoins generally followed the decline of major coins, under pressure due to tightening liquidity. The total global crypto market cap oscillated within the range of approximately $2.2 trillion to $2.29 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index moved further towards the 'Fear' zone after the Fed meeting, indicating cautious market sentiment.

2. Liquidity Analysis

2.1 The Broad Trend of Continued Crypto ETF Outflows Has Not Yet Reversed

Last week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a slight net inflow overall. However, the cumulative net outflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in June remains as high as approximately $2.1 billion, indicating that the broad trend of sustained capital outflows this month has not fundamentally reversed.

Looking at major products, BlackRock's IBIT continued to lead, recording a single-day net inflow of about $16.4 million on Tuesday, showcasing its strong capital-attracting ability. The combined AUM of all US Bitcoin spot ETFs is approximately $82.5 billion, holding about 1.284 million BTC. IBIT dominates with an AUM of approximately $66 billion, followed by Fidelity's FBTC with about $14 billion. Additionally, on June 16, BlackRock officially listed a new product on the Nasdaq—the iShares Premium Income Bitcoin ETF (BITA). This product features monthly cash dividends, targeting an annualized yield of 15%–25%. It aims to attract income-oriented investors among institutions, adding a new category to the Bitcoin ETF product matrix.

Last week, the liquidity performance of Ethereum spot ETFs showed slight divergence, with some products showing signs of recovery. On June 16, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $9.6 million, marking a second consecutive day of positive flows—a signal of recent phased improvement. BlackRock's ETHA continued as the main capital absorber, with a net inflow of approximately $17.3 million that day, single-handedly supporting the overall positive flow. Meanwhile, Bitwise ETHW saw a net outflow of about $3.5 million, Fidelity's FETH had a net outflow of about $2.2 million, and Grayscale's Mini ETH had a net outflow of about $2 million, indicating a continued trend of capital concentrating towards top-tier products.

Overall, institutional allocation willingness via the ETF channel still exists. However, against the headwind of adverse macro interest rate expectations, the pace of short-term incremental capital inflow has slowed noticeably. The market is awaiting further clarity on the Fed's policy path.

2.2 TradFi Liquidity

• TradFi Perp DEX: Over the past week, the trading structure of the TradFi Perp DEXs changed significantly. The share of commodities continued to decline, while the share of stocks and index/ETF trading increased notably. The commodities sector share, which was previously near 70% in mid-May, has gradually fallen to about 25%–35%. Meanwhile, the stock sector share has rapidly recovered to about 30%, and the index/ETF share has risen to about 35%–40%, becoming the main source of recent incremental volume. This change is closely related to the recent market environment. On one hand, safe-haven trades stemming from the Middle East situation led commodity prices like gold to spike and then enter a consolidation phase, with related trading demand marginally cooling. On the other hand, the SpaceX IPO and sustained activity in the AI and chip sectors attracted capital back to US stocks and related index products. For TradFi Perp platforms, user demand is expanding from simple gold trading to a broader range of asset classes like stocks, ETFs, and Pre-IPOs.

• Gate TradFi Perp Volume: In the past week, Gate TradFi Perp trading volume remained at a relatively high level overall, with daily volume mainly concentrated in the $300 million to $800 million range. This is a narrower band compared to prior fluctuations, but still maintains stable activity. There were several instances of rapid volume expansion during the week, with the highest reaching close to $800 million. This indicates that demand for leveraged trading remains robust during periods of significant macro events and asset price volatility. By asset class, metals continue to dominate. Stock-related assets saw notable volume increases on certain trading days, with blue areas (representing stocks) frequently expanding alongside overall volume increases, suggesting growing user participation in US stock-related perpetual contracts. Overall, Gate TradFi Perp trading volume was stable over the past week, with market demand primarily driven by precious metal perpetuals, along with increased participation in stock-related assets.

• Number of Gate TradFi US Stock Assets: Gate officially launched its US stock trading service on June 2. Leveraging advantages such as support from real underlying assets, direct trading with USDT, no overnight holding fees, and high liquidity, the service has continuously attracted market attention since its launch, with trading volume growing steadily. Currently, Gate supports 7 major asset classes: ADRC, Stocks, ETFs, ETNs, ETS, ETVs, and PFDs, and is still expanding product coverage. In terms of asset count, the total number of tradable instruments has doubled since launch. Stock category growth has been the most significant, with its proportion of total assets rising from approximately 70% at launch to 85%, further enriching users' investment choices. Looking ahead, Gate will continue to promote access to more markets, integrate global liquidity, and build cross-market trading capabilities, constantly expanding diversified asset coverage and further strengthening its strategic positioning as a global asset trading and market access platform.

• TradFi Order Book Depth: We selected XAUT, the TradFi asset with the highest trading volume, to analyze its order book depth (Delta). Over the past week, XAUT order book liquidity showed clear divergence. In the first half of the week, buy-side liquidity was dominant multiple times, pushing Delta significantly positive, reaching a high of nearly $2.5 million. This drove the XAUT price up in a volatile manner from around the $4,050 area to near $4,300, indicating strong market support. However, after June 18, as the price retreated from its peak, sell-side liquidity gradually strengthened, and Delta turned persistently negative, suggesting increasing selling pressure overhead. Since June 22, the negative Delta has widened significantly, with short-term active sell orders dominating, and the XAUT price has fallen back to around $4,120. Overall, the gold token still has buying support, but the short-term liquidity structure leans defensive as the market awaits further resolution of macroeconomic uncertainty.

3. On-Chain Data Insights

3.1 DEX Volume Did Not Increase in Sync, Uniswap Slightly Overtakes PancakeSwap

Last week, DEX trading volumes showed divergence, and the market rebound did not translate into a comprehensive volume surge. Uniswap's weekly volume was approximately $14.11 billion, slightly overtaking PancakeSwap's $13.98 billion. PancakeSwap saw a decline from the previous week, while Uniswap continued to recover. Aerodrome and Curve cooled off from the highs of the week before, indicating that turnover demand on Ethereum and Base side did not expand persistently. The Solana side performed stronger, with Raydium and Meteora volumes recovering, while Whirlpool was roughly flat. PumpSwap's volume rose to about $458 million, with active traders remaining above 1.26 million, but the number of transactions was slightly lower than the previous week. Growth last week came more from higher trade sizes, with limited expansion from pure retail high-frequency activity.

3.2 Stablecoin Supply Diverges; Mid-Tier Asset Performance Better Reflects On-Chain USD Structural Changes

Last week, the stablecoin market showed clear divergence. Data for top-tier assets like USDT and USDC declined. Notably, DAI remained steady at about $4.96 billion, PYUSD inched up to approximately $2.09 billion, and GHO was stable around $600 million, indicating resilience among some mid-tier stablecoins. USDe and USDS also declined, suggesting a slowdown in the expansion pace of yield-bearing and protocol-based stablecoins. Overall, the stablecoin market did not provide clear signals of new USD inflows last week. On-chain capital continued to be predominantly based on existing holdings rotation, with institutional allocation favoring assets with proven liquidity, reserve transparency, and cross-chain usability.

3.3 LST Valuation Recovery Broadens; SOL and HYPE Sides Show Greater Elasticity

Last week, the LST sector saw an overall recovery, with major ETH staking protocols continuing their moderate repair. Lido's TVL rose to about $15.71 billion, while Rocket Pool and StakeWise both recorded growth of around 3% to 5%, suggesting the ETH staking capital flow has not worsened further for now. The SOL side showed greater elasticity, with Jito and Jupiter Staked SOL recovering notably, and Sanctum Validator LSTs also continuing to expand. Kinetiq's kHYPE performed most prominently, with TVL growing about 15% compared to the previous week. However, as TVL is denominated in USD, last week's increase could largely be attributed to price recovery in ETH, SOL, and HYPE, and cannot be directly equated to net inflows of staked tokens. The current situation appears more like valuation repair and position covering.

3.4 Aave Lending Volume Moderately Recovers; Ethereum Provides Backstop but Multi-Chain No Longer on a Monotonic Decline

Aave's total borrow balance continued to recover last week. The Ethereum market remains the core support, with the borrow balance rising to about $7.48 billion, a growth of about 2% from the previous week. Multi-chain markets are no longer on a monotonic decline. Plasma, Mantle, Avalanche, and Ink all saw relatively significant recoveries. Arbitrum and Base also improved slightly. MegaETH and BNB Chain, on the other hand, saw declines. Capital has preferentially returned to markets with deeper collateral, better liquidation liquidity, and more mature risk parameters, but lending demand on some emerging chains has started to recover. Overall, Aave has transitioned from a post-incident defensive phase to a phase of selective recovery, although expansion remains concentrated in markets with more reliable liquidity.

3.5 Aave Lending Rates Stabilize at Low Levels; USDC Tail Risk Further Eases

Last week, Aave's borrowing rates for major assets remained stable at low levels. The average borrowing rate for USDC was about 4.02%, roughly flat compared to the previous week. However, the peak weekly rate declined from about 10.84% to 9.36%, indicating that short-term capital tightness from extreme utilization rates continues to ease. The average rate for USDT fell to about 3.24%, while the average rate for WETH inched up to about 2.16%, still in a low range. The recovery in the borrow balance did not trigger a rapid increase in financing costs, suggesting leverage demand remains restrained. The current rate environment is suitable for capital turnover, carry trades, and market-neutral strategies but has yet to show signs of borrowers competing for liquidity.

3.6 Protocol Revenue Declines but Structure Unchanged; Stablecoin Issuance Remains the Revenue Base

Last week, protocol revenues were generally weak. Tether's revenue dropped to about $96.76 million, a decline of approximately 15.5% from the previous week, but it still significantly leads other protocols. Circle's revenue was about $45.19 million, remaining relatively stable. Hyperliquid's revenue was approximately $11.57 million, a slight decline from the previous week, still serving as a core revenue source among on-chain trading protocols. Revenues for Pump, Tron, Titan Builder, and Base declined, while Axiom Pro, Jupiter, Aerodrome, and Aave improved against the trend. The revenue structure has not fundamentally changed: stablecoin issuance continues to provide the industry's revenue base, derivatives and trading applications contribute cyclical elasticity, and lending protocols maintain relatively stable but limited revenue recovery in the low-interest-rate environment.

4. Derivatives Tracking

4.1 BTC Funding Rate Stays Positive but OI Drops Rapidly; Leverage Positions Continue to Be Liquidated

Last week, the BTC price generally oscillated at lower levels. Early in the week, the price traded around $65,000 to $66,000. Then around June 17, it fell to the $62,000