根据您的指示，我将严格保留 HTML 结构和 `` 分隔符，并仅翻译可见文本内容。 --- Metrics Ventures Market Observation: The Fragility of the World Is Rapidly Accumulating

MVC Crypto Market Secondary Fund June Market Observations

1/ This month's report focuses on our assessment of the current accumulation of market risks. In short, we believe that disruptions to global supply chains since 2022 have progressively eroded the economic resilience and monetary-fiscal policy autonomy of countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Europe, quietly building momentum for future turmoil in global capital markets.

2/ Market trends have already clearly revealed that, aside from AI and certain non-ferrous metal sectors, a liquidity drain is actively underway. While we do not believe a bubble burst is imminent, we observe that the aforementioned fragile nations are flocking to double down on centralized trading. Such a desperate gamble, under the current international political and economic landscape, is unlikely to end well.

3/ For the crypto market, a fragile global landscape has been rapidly coalescing into dark clouds above prices since late last year. For the first time, we genuinely need to contemplate the possibility of MSTR continuously selling BTC. Meanwhile, the distant prospect of demand makes BTC's cost-effectiveness as a hedging/shorting strategy against other assets increasingly attractive. Looking at the medium term, its prospects appear precarious, like drifting duckweed battered by wind and rain.

Review and Analysis of Overall Market Conditions and Trends

From a technical analysis perspective, the market's centralized trading phase appears to be in its middle-to-late stages. We observe:

① The Japanese and South Korean stock markets, long supported by state-directed transfer payments, have hit significant resistance on their long-term uptrend channels:

② The US Dollar Index has broken through its resistance level of the past year:

③ While the US 10-year Treasury yield remains stable, the 2-year Treasury yield is showing an upward trend:

As it stands now, we see SK Hynix's leveraged fund size surpassing that of Tesla. A massive number of white-collar workers are rapidly losing valuation premiums for their human capital and are being forced into the endless game of capital markets. Simultaneously, many countries deeply integrated into the global trading system and trusting capitalist globalization are paying for past faith: The breakdown of global supply chains and the disintegration of international trade alliances will severely impair their fiscal and monetary systems' ability to regulate their economies effectively. After all, printing money cannot produce oil, copper mines, or optical modules. The global division of labor has ultimately become a noose tightening around their own necks.

One day, when liquidity suddenly contracts again, either expectedly or substantially, a wave of leveraged funds will algorithmically cash out starting from the Asian trading session. This shock will inevitably transmit to the global VIX (fear index), triggering broader turmoil. Underlying national instability and economies chronically weakened by short-term fixes will become more apparent during the upheaval, further amplifying emotional volatility. This will not end prettily.

Regarding the non-ferrous metals we have been tracking, gold and silver will face short-term pressure from nations' strong will to exchange them for dollars to procure commodity inventories under this macro stress. This is particularly evident in central banks led by Turkey. However, this very shock is precisely the deep squat before the true bull run for gold and silver. The complete failure at Hormuz is the beginning of the dollar's loosening. The market turmoil following rate hikes will ultimately pave the way for a looser future. For copper and many minor metals, the game is more complex. We tend to believe that when the tug-of-war over rate hike expectations reaches its extreme, there will be a decent sweet spot period.

For Bitcoin, for the first time, we need to seriously assess whether MSTR might activate the "evil button" given future cash flow pressures and the possibility of other participants front-running its potential sale of 800,000 BTC holdings. In the scenario described above, it's clear BTC can hardly remain unscathed. Therefore, we must more carefully consider BTC's positioning and tradable direction during this risk-unwinding process. Perhaps the bottom of this cycle will seem incredibly hard to believe right now, but a deeper correction level is not a panic-induced fantasy.

Standing at the start of the year, it was difficult to predict the events at Hormuz, or that global capital markets would enter H2 in this manner. But with risk comes opportunity. We wish all the best to our fellow participants.