Citrini Research: Distracted by AI, These Assets Have Become Deep Value Plays

Original Author: Citrini Research

Original Translation: TechFlow

Introduction: While analysts across the market are busy calculating how many HBM chips and Taiwanese glass the data centers are lacking, the truly scarce resource is actually "attention" itself. Three years of AI narratives have led to overcrowded capital, but the rest of the world is still turning: the life sciences cycle has bottomed out, aging-population real estate is booming, and sports venues are selling out. These forgotten sectors are quietly repairing their fundamentals... For investors, the biggest Alpha right now may not lie in the AGI timeline, but in the "small themes" no one is modeling.

Note: The following is a compilation of core content from the latest Citrini Research report. The original text is paid content; this article is assembled based on its public summary and multiple sources.

The Attention Tax

Did you know? Computing power, electricity, HBM, NAND, the concrete and transformers used to build data centers, that special Taiwanese glass, and the alphabet-soup technologies that convert light into data – all are in short supply.

Yes, of course you do. But among the shortages caused by AI, there is one input factor that is even scarcer: attention.

Every marginal hour of analyst brainpower (or analyst token budget) has been pulled toward a single trade. We know this firsthand, having spent most of the past three years tracking (and occasionally shaping) that narrative.

But myopia comes at a cost, and we think it's time to cast a wider net.

The AI trade – at the very least – is already crowded, even if it's right. We believe the risk of "AI fatigue" is high, and it is quite likely we will see some degree of capital rotation toward things people seem to have stopped caring about.

The mechanism we care about is simple: as capital floods into one theme, peripheral assets become underweighted, which is interesting in itself. These assets are also under-modeled and overlooked.

We mentioned this when discussing the life sciences cycle – in our view, that cycle has already bottomed out. Five years ago, these stocks would have bounced from lows, pricing in the upcoming up-cycle. But now they're wallowing in 52-week lows because nobody wants to shift risk into a destocking recovery when "DRAM is the bottleneck."

The world keeps turning, and the gap between forgotten expectations and shifting reality has always been where thematic investing makes money. Attention is a limited resource, but it can shift quickly during ordinary momentum reversals. Sometimes when it shifts, it brings the new focal point into investor consciousness, even as momentum swings back to the upside.

We are revisiting our "small themes" – trends and catalyst-driven trades that are not decade-defining market disruption stories. Instead, they are interesting, low-profile narratives in less hot sectors that could deliver positive surprises. Five themes, none requiring a view on the AGI timeline or tokenomics. Boomers moving into nursing homes. Sports venues selling out. A two-decade exchange monopoly facing real competition for the first time. A fintech recovery. And airline stocks – two of our favorite names have been punished for eighteen months for reasons completely unrelated to their profitability.

Our macro view is that markets will continue to move higher, but we will also see a noticeable increase in 10-15% sharp pullbacks, driven more by positioning than fundamentals. This means we should hold onto semiconductor names, but probably shouldn't let them be the only thing on the map. Right now, we have been gradually trimming AI exposure over the past month because everyone with an internet connection has put on the "bottleneck investor" hat, and we are becoming increasingly interested in what AI Dutch disease leaves behind.

Theme 1: Airline Stocks, Punished for 18 Months for Reasons Unrelated to Profitability

Citrini has been bullish on Delta and United for over two years. In November 2024, they wrote about the "structural reset" of the airline industry, arguing that these two mainline carriers would be the winners.

Two years later, Citrini remains bullish. The report points out that the decline in these two stocks over the past 18 months has been almost entirely driven by macro factors – first tariff-induced inflation fears, then an Iran war pushing up oil prices – completely unrelated to how much money the airlines are making.

According to Business Insider, Citrini believes that as the economy emerges from the shadow of tariff inflation and oil price shocks, the growth prospects for these two companies remain strong. The report highlights a key trend: the K-shaped economy is exacerbating divergence, and mainline airlines are not only resisting this divergence but actively embracing it – shifting towards premiumization to boost revenue per customer.

Furthermore, the 2026 World Cup is seen as a near-term catalyst, with global tournament-driven international travel demand directly benefiting airline stocks.

Theme 2: Senior Housing Real Estate, 80+ Population to Grow 56% in a Decade, Facilities Far from Sufficient

Citrini's second theme points to a sector that is not particularly glamorous but is certainly certain: senior housing real estate.

The core data is compelling: the US population aged 80 and over is expected to grow by over 56% in the next decade, far outpacing the total population growth of about 5%. In 2026 alone, there will be an additional 1 million households with someone aged 80 or over, and by 2029, that number will double to 2 million.

Supply on the facility side is far from keeping up. Citrini notes that this sector is largely overlooked because it lacks the glamour of AI and semiconductors. But the Baby Boomer generation is collectively entering advanced age – this is a purely demographic trend that requires no policy assumptions or technological breakthroughs.

According to Business Insider, Citrini named three names: Senior housing REITs Welltower and Janus Living, and nursing home operator Brookdale Senior Living.

Theme 3: Live Entertainment, Best Performing Asset Class of the Past Decade, Outperforming Tech Stocks

Citrini calls live entertainment the best-performing asset class of the past decade, even outperforming tech stocks.

The core argument of the report is: being "in the room" itself is becoming a luxury good. Consumers are willing to pay a high premium for being physically present. Sports franchises, concerts, fighting events, and even movie theaters are all benefiting from this desire for "real presence." Citrini writes: "Sports franchises, and more broadly all live events, are benefiting from people's desire to 'be there.' This brings a greater opportunity to monetize through attendance, premiumization, and promotion."

According to Business Insider, Citrini specifically mentioned three companies:

TKO Group, the parent company of WWE and UFC, with the report highlighting its strong financial growth and high-value partnerships. Cinemark reflects the trend of consumers returning to movie theaters. IMAX represents the direction of cinematic experience upgrade – audiences want not just a movie, but an immersive experience. IMAX's stock hit an all-time high earlier this month.

Theme 4: Exchange Monopoly Competition, CME's Two-Decade Reign Faces a Real Rival for the First Time

The most institutionally-oriented theme in Citrini's report points to a rift in the US futures exchange landscape.

CME Group holds approximately a 98% share of the US interest rate derivatives market, a near-absolute monopoly that has lasted over two decades. But the emergence of FMX Futures Exchange is changing this landscape.

FMX was incubated by BGC Group (founded by current US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick), received CFTC approval in January 2024, and officially began trading in the second half of 2025. Its shareholder list reads like a Wall Street all-star team: Bank of America, Barclays, Citadel Securities, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Jump Trading, Morgan Stanley, Tower Research Capital, and Wells Fargo each hold minority stakes, with a valuation of approximately $667 million.

FMX's competitive strategy is three-pronged: lower trading fees, margin savings via a partnership with LCH, and incentive programs for liquidity providers. In February 2025, FMX set a single-day trading volume record of 9,500 contracts.

CME is not without flaws. Just last week (June 22), the CME Direct platform experienced a four-hour outage, not the first time infrastructure has been disrupted. FMX has previously stated publicly that CME's near-monopoly makes such incidents a systemic risk, and the market needs a reliable alternative exchange to ensure resilience.

Of course, the path of a disruptor is not easy. During the tariff turmoil in April 2025, FMX's trading volume plummeted by more than two-thirds as traders instinctively returned to the deeper liquidity of CME during heightened volatility. However, as the market returns to normal, FMX's trading volume is gradually recovering. Bank of America estimates that CME generates approximately $2 billion in revenue from Treasury-related business alone – a profit pool large enough to warrant long-term commitment from challengers.

Theme 5: Fintech Recovery, the Most Beaten-Down Sector of 2026 is Bouncing Back

Citrini's fifth theme is fintech.

Fintech stocks have been among the worst-performing sectors in 2026. As of the end of May, SoFi was down about 35% year-to-date, and Robinhood and Upstart were each down about 25%. But starting in late May, the sector showed clear signs of a rebound.

SoFi's catalyst was the launch of the SoFiUSD stablecoin, making it the first US licensed bank to issue its own stablecoin. The stock jumped 12% in a single day on the news. On the fundamental side, SoFi's Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.1 billion, loan originations hit a record $12.2 billion (up 68% year-over-year), and membership reached 14.7 million. CEO Anthony Noto defined this as a "strategic entry into digital assets" and is developing global payment settlement features in partnership with Mastercard.

Robinhood has completed a U-shaped recovery after its 2022-2023 trough, with full-year 2025 revenue growing 45% year-over-year and net profit doubling. The acquisition of crypto exchange Bitstamp, the launch of the Gold credit card, and the growth of Gold subscribers to 4.3 million are all driving its transformation from a "trading app" into a "financial super app."

Upstart changed its CEO in May, with co-founder Paul Gu taking the helm, and the narrative around its AI credit platform has also regained market attention.

Citrini's logic is clear: when everyone is focused on semiconductors and data centers, fintech has been forgotten to extreme valuation levels. But the fundamentals of these companies haven't deteriorated; they are improving. Once attention shifts even slightly, the rebound potential is significant.