链上Pre-IPO全解析：为什么SpaceX、OpenAI的定价权正在上链？

Compiled & Translated by: ShenChao TechFlow

Guest: Dio Casares, Founder of Patagon

Host: Laura Shin

Podcast Source: Unchained

Original Title: Why SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic Now Trade Onchain

Air Date: May 22, 2026

Key Takeaways

In the latest episode, Dio Casares and Laura Shin delved into how pre-IPO price discovery is migrating to blockchain. From the SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual contract just launched on Hyperliquid, to the secondary market trading of Anthropic and OpenAI shares, they analyzed this trend in depth. Additionally, they discussed the new partnership between Nasdaq Private Market and Polymarket, and its potential implications for the future of private equity.

Highlights of Key Insights

Why On-Chain Pre-IPO Markets Suddenly Heated Up

• "For the crypto audience, a good way to understand pre-IPO perpetuals is to think of them as pre-markets in crypto. Many people should remember that Hyperliquid was once very aggressive with pre-markets for many altcoins. Consequently, these markets began to capture significant trading volume and gradually became the place where most pre-market activity occurred."
• "These pre-IPO perpetuals are listed shortly before a planned IPO or a key event. ... Because they get listed very close to the event, they can attract more trading volume and more willing participants. You can think of it as a future that is about to settle, rather than something like Ventuals, which has a longer duration, and it's unclear when these perpetual futures will ultimately settle."

Why OpenAI and Anthropic Disavow Secondary Trades

• "First, they want to create a genuine fear that discourages people from investing in the secondary market. The essence of secondary market trading is that someone is buying stock, but the company or its employees don't receive money from it. And these AI companies, to put it bluntly, are highly capital-intensive. They absorb large amounts of cash, invest it, and burn through billions of dollars."
• "Anything that hinders the fundraising ability of these high-capital-consumption companies, especially right before they enter a fiercely competitive IPO phase, is seen as a major problem. ... They are all trying to absorb as much capital as possible. Therefore, for them, limiting the secondary market just before an IPO is a crucial step, as it funnels more supply and demand towards their own primary rounds."
• "The second reason is liability. Typically, when a company deems a trade credible or approves it, it also becomes responsible for executing that trade. ... When these SPVs start liquidating and closing around the IPO, a whole host of waterfall issues arise. For these companies, whether due to legal responsibility or simply not wanting to deal with the hassle, they want to stay away from these things. No one wants to deal with 1,000 different cases."

What Problems Does On-Chainification Actually Solve?

• "In crypto, the derivatives market makes more sense than the spot market, primarily due to US regulation. In the US, these private stocks typically have a holding period of about 6 months. ... If you don't have a system to enforce this 6-month holding period, you could jeopardize the regulatory exemptions these stocks rely on, leading to fines and a host of other problems."
• "A large volume of spot market trading isn't necessarily in the best interests of these companies, as it competes with their primary fundraising rounds. They don't want price discovery to happen this way because it could lead to adverse selection when they raise funds. The company might say, 'We know you're going to tokenize this, so we won't work with you.'"
• "In a tokenized product, if the SPV gets it wrong, or there are legal issues, or the fund's structure has problems, the downstream effects can be absolutely catastrophic. Derivatives certainly have their risks, like ADL or price wicks, but it's more of a market risk, rather than someone messing up a contract and everyone losing their money. That's why I favor the perp side."

Are Private Giants Already Trading Like Public Companies?

• "To a certain extent, I agree: these companies do have record participation. If you break down the capital invested in these companies pre-IPO, the participants could number in the thousands or tens of thousands. That's not typical for private companies."
• "But as far as I know, they haven't actively promoted the secondary market, meaning they haven't encouraged people to continue buying and selling after the initial investment. Instead, they've been trying to tell investors very clearly: 'If you invest, you should hold until the IPO or a similar liquidity event.'"

Ways and Risks of Getting In Before the IPO

• "These are late-stage companies. Once you get into second and third-tier structures, it becomes a dangerous legal 'hot potato' surrounding these shares. Most people would want to avoid this kind of thing."
• "There's a real risk here: many banks and brokerages might say, 'We don't know if this transaction is valid, so we can't allow you to sell these shares.' ... If the main bank account for a particular SPV is at JP Morgan, and JP Morgan says, 'We can't help you sell these shares,' they suddenly enter a race against time: to set up a new account, which isn't easy; and then transfer the shares from the original account to another brokerage account."
• "Another scenario is someone might say: 'I did initially agree to sell these to you and hand them over, but now these transactions are deemed invalid, so I'm just returning your money.' This would most likely lead to litigation. These people would probably lose eventually, but you'd still have to sue them. So, depending on the tools and structures used, there are many different risks."

Legal Boundaries of Robinhood, FTX, and Different Structures

• "As for whether they violate securities laws, and whether companies like OpenAI can actually stop companies like Robinhood from offering these products, it still falls into a legal gray area. Regardless, these products haven't gained massive traction overall. The main reason is that these are not truly liquid assets."
• "The batch of Anthropic shares held by FTX, and many other shares and assets held by FTX, were typically sold without any encumbrances. That means Anthropic's right of first refusal (ROFR) on these shares was completely waived, transfer restrictions were waived, and other restrictions were also lifted."
• "If you hold Anthropic shares related to the FTX bankruptcy claim—the Anthropic stock FTX bought—you're probably in one of the safest positions besides the company's approved direct investors, because there's a different legal status attached to them."

The Landscape of Players in the Private Secondary Market

• "On the perpetual side, there's Trade.xyz, which is HIP-3; there's also Ventuals, a relatively early protocol, also HIP-3; and some new projects, like Entropy which a friend of mine is working on, will also be HIP-3. They might offer some pre-markets a bit earlier than Trade.xyz. You'll see these markets generally cluster around Hyperliquid."
• "I think Solana is more retail-oriented, and for some reason, people are more willing to experiment there. There's also significant overlap between crypto and AI... There are a lot of people willing to take high risks, there's plenty of capital, and they're already used to operating on Solana. They tend to invest in these types of projects without needing to open a bank account, go through cumbersome paperwork in traditional finance, or rely on personal connections to get direct share allocations."

Patagon's Positioning and On-Chain Boundaries

• "We've looked at perpetuals in the private market before, to see if we should tell some clients that if they're considering hedging pre-IPO, even though it's a bit of a gray area, they might consider using perpetuals instead of something like the IBKR setup. ... We don't want to anger the companies we are on the cap table of. Launching tokenized versions of their stock, or launching pre-IPO markets, especially very early ones, is an easy way to get on their bad side."

Why Pre-IPO Perpetuals Might Continue to Expand

• "Many major world-changing and market-moving events now happen on weekends, which is a huge advantage for RWA perpetuals that can trade 24/7. The same goes for pre-IPO perpetuals. Once they convert, they become regular RWA perpetuals."
• "I'm not sure exactly how the pre-IPO market will develop, but this year we have a historic number of IPOs. SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are all pushing for valuations over a trillion dollars, which has never happened before. ... Now is a good time for pre-IPO perpetuals to start gaining more traction."

Why On-Chain Pre-IPO Markets Suddenly Heated Up

Host Laura Shin: This week, or more accurately the past few weeks, there's been a lot of activity in the pre-IPO market, especially on-chain. This week, there was a major new listing on Hyperliquid, the SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual. Around the same time, Polymarket announced a new type of event contract where users can bet on unicorn valuations, IPO dates, secondary market pricing, etc., in partnership with Nasdaq Private Market. Last week, Anthropic and OpenAI made waves by voiding a batch of secondary market share trades.

According to data from Allium Research, the volume of these pre-IPO activities on Hyperliquid was only about $3 million in February, but reached $44 million a few days ago. What's your take, why are these activities emerging now?

Dio Casares:

I think a big reason is that the timing is very strategic. For the crypto audience, a good way to understand pre-IPO perpetuals is to think of them as pre-markets in crypto. Many people should remember that Hyperliquid was once very aggressive with pre-markets for many altcoins. Consequently, these markets began to capture significant trading volume and gradually became the place where most pre-market activity occurred.

When these tokens officially launch, the opening price is usually quite close to the price formed in the pre-market. And after they become regular perpetuals with standard oracles, Hyperliquid retains most of that volume.

So what we’re seeing with Cerebras and now SpaceX, is that these pre-IPO perpetuals are listed shortly before a planned IPO or a key event. I think the SpaceX-related date is around the 17th of next month, so only three or four weeks away. Because theyget listed very close to the event itself, they can attract more trading volume and more willing participants. You can think of it as a future that is about to settle, rather than something like Ventuals, which has a longer duration, and it's unclear when these perpetual futures will ultimately settle.

Why OpenAI and Anthropic Disavow Secondary Trades

Host Laura Shin: In my initial question, I actually mentioned several types of activities: the SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual, the Polymarket news, and the events around Anthropic and OpenAI, some happening off-chain, some on-chain. They represent different areas of this market, or different stages of the pre-IPO phase. How would you summarize what these news items represent?

Dio Casares:

When OpenAI and Anthropic come out and say, "We will not recognize these trades," there are roughly two layers of reasons.

First, they want to create a genuine fear that discourages people from investing in the secondary market. Becausethe essence of secondary market trading is that someone is buying stock, but the company or its employees don't receive money from it. And these AI companies, to put it bluntly, are highly capital-intensive. They absorb large amounts of cash, invest it, and burn through billions of dollars.

Anything that hinders the fundraising ability of these high-capital-consumption companies, especially right before they enter a fiercely competitive IPO phase, is seen as a major problem. Currently, it is expected that SpaceX will go public first, followed by Anthropic, then OpenAI. These companies are trying to attract as much capital as possible. Therefore,for them, limiting the secondary market just before an IPO is a crucial step, as it funnels more supply and demand towards their own primary rounds.

The second reason is liability. Typically,when a company deems a trade credible or approves it, it also becomes responsible for executing that trade. This means ensuring on the company's cap table that the person buying the stock actually gets the shares at or before the IPO.

You can imagine there could be hundreds or even thousands of SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) and other entities in the market. They could face litigation, and their structures could be very complex. When these SPVs start liquidating and closing around the IPO, a whole host of waterfall issues arise. For these companies, whether due to legal responsibility or simply not wanting to deal with the hassle, they want to stay away from these things. No one wants to deal with 1,000 different cases.

So they are now being very loud and clear: "This is not our problem. If you're not in the approved block, we can't help you." They're choosing to say this loudly before the IPO goes wrong. In summary, it's both about maximizing the cash they can secure and minimizing their own legal liability.

What Problems Does On-Chainification Actually Solve?

Host Laura Shin: We've touched upon the various problems in this market and why some people think moving on-chain can solve them. Can you specifically list, for both buyers and sellers, what problems they are trying to solve by moving on-chain?

Dio Casares:

Moving on-chain can be broken down into two markets: the derivatives market and the spot market. The derivatives market has many advantages. Like the nature of most derivatives, it is first and foremost a hedging tool. Many people I know who use this market use it as a way to hedge their existing spot positions or their direct investment positions.

I think, in crypto, the derivatives market makes more sense than the spot market, primarily due to US regulation. In the US, these private stocks typically have a holding period of about 6 months. There might be workarounds, but roughly it's 6 months. If you don't have a system to enforce this 6-month holding period, you could jeopardize the regulatory exemptions these stocks rely on, leading to fines and a host of other problems.