速览24岁“AI股神”的最新布局：六成仓位对冲半导体下行

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

No confidentiality claim! No complete liquidation! The newly minted "AI Stock God" Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund, Situational Awareness LP, officially released its 13F filing this evening.

• Odaily Note: For details on Leopold Aschenbrenner's personal story, see SBF's Little Brother Turned 225 Million into 5.5 Billion in One Year.

This confirms that our first assumption in this morning's article, Revealed as Early as Today, the Entire Internet Awaits the Version Answer from the 24-Year-Old "AI Stock God", was correct. Situational Awareness LP submitted the filing just before the May 15 deadline, causing the SEC to miss posting it on its website that day. The market had to endure another weekend, finally seeing the fund's holdings disclosure only after the SEC resumed work on Monday.

According to this latest 13F filing, as of March 31, 2026, Situational Awareness LP's total nominal holdings surged to $13.7 billion, more than doubling (148%) from $5.52 billion on December 31 last year.

• Odaily Note: It's important to note that in the statistical scope of U.S. stock 13F filings, the market value of options assets usually reflects the "Notional Value" of the underlying stock, not the actual premium cost paid by the fund. This means that while the fund constructed a semiconductor hedging wall with tens of billions of dollars in notional assets, its actual cash cost (maximum loss) is much smaller, representing a typical high-leverage macro hedge.

Additionally, net capital inflows this quarter accounted for 32.51% of the fund's total portfolio value, indicating that the fund's explosive growth was not only due to portfolio appreciation but also significant new external capital subscriptions (i.e., new capital injections).

Aggressive Portfolio Restructuring

The filing also reveals that Situational Awareness LP executed aggressive portfolio adjustments in the first quarter of this year.

• New Purchases: 23 stocks (including options);
• Added To: 9 stocks;
• Sold out of: 10 stocks (including options);
• Reduced holdings in: 4 stocks (including options).

New Purchases: 60% of Portfolio Hedging Against Semiconductor Downturn

• Odaily Note: The chart above only covers new stocks valued over $100 million. All 23 new stock purchases can be viewed via this link.

First, let's examine the new purchases, the most striking information in the entire 13F report – In the first quarter, the fund systematically hedged risk in the AI semiconductor and computing hardware sector through massive put option positions.

Let's look at the data directly:

• SMH PUT (VanEck Semiconductor ETF Put Options): 14.94% of portfolio (market value $2.04 billion) – Largest new position;
• NVDA PUT (NVIDIA Put Options): 11.47% of portfolio (market value $1.56 billion) – Second largest new position;
• ORCL PUT (Oracle Put Options): 7.84% of portfolio;
• AVGO PUT (Broadcom Put Options): 7.36% of portfolio;
• AMD PUT (AMD Put Options): 7.09% of portfolio;

The top five put option positions alone accounted for 48.7% of Situational Awareness LP's $13.7 billion total nominal holdings. Including puts on Micron (MU), TSMC (TSM), ASML (ASML), and Intel (INTC), over 60% of the fund's nominal positions are betting on or hedging against a decline or severe volatility in core AI hardware stocks.

Furthermore, it's noteworthy that Situational Awareness LP simultaneously bought both call and put options for the same stocks. For example, it bought MU PUT (4.27%) alongside MU CALL (3.09%), and TSM PUT (3.91%) alongside TSM CALL (2.59%).

This is a common two-way betting strategy used by hedge funds. It suggests the fund anticipates that Micron (memory chips) and TSMC (foundry) could experience stock price volatility far exceeding market expectations in upcoming 2026 earnings reports or industry cycles, due to geopolitical factors or extreme supply-demand imbalances. As long as the directional volatility is significant enough, it can profit from either side.

Additions: Still Favoring SanDisk and CRWV as Core Holdings

Regarding additions, Situational Awareness LP did not use options but increased holdings in 9 stocks through common shares.

In Q1, Situational Awareness LP slightly increased its position in SanDisk (SNDK) by 85,000 shares, bringing its total holdings to 1.14 million shares, with a market value of $724 million, accounting for 5.30% of the entire portfolio. This is one of the very few super-heavyweight positions in Situational Awareness LP's portfolio held entirely in common stock.

Another significant move to note is that Situational Awareness LP substantially increased its holdings in CoreWeave (CRWV) by over 1.07 million shares in Q1, pushing the position's value to $556 million, or 4.07% of the portfolio. CoreWeave is one of the most closely watched infrastructure companies in the AI GPU cloud services space and a key partner in the NVIDIA ecosystem. Following its IPO, Situational Awareness LP quickly incorporated it into its core portfolio and aggressively added more, indicating that while the fund shorted NVIDIA's near-term valuation (via PUTs), it remains extremely bullish on the cloud giants that directly convert GPUs into computing power to rent out to major AI models.

Additionally, Situational Awareness LP increased holdings in computing or power infrastructure companies like KEEL, IREN, APLD, RIOT, CLSK, and BTDR, continuing the logic advocated by Leopold Aschenbrenner that "Electricity is the New Oil."

Sold Out: Unloaded Intel Call Leverage, Exited Optical Communications

Regarding sell-offs, Situational Awareness LP's biggest move was completely unwinding its leverage from Intel call options (INTC CALL). In the previous reporting period, Situational Awareness LP had bet over 13% of its portfolio on Intel call options (up to 20.23 million option contracts), representing an extremely high-leverage directional bet. This quarter, it sold out entirely, shifting to holding common shares (0.07%), but the position size is now minimal.

Furthermore, in Q1, Situational Awareness LP completely sold out of LITE (8.68% weight in the previous period) and COHR (1.61% weight in the previous quarter). LITE and COHR are global leaders in optical communication chips and optical transceivers. This sell-off indicates that Situational Awareness LP is retreating from the AI optical module/network hardware sector.

Situational Awareness LP also sold out of CIFR (2.80% weight in the previous period) and HUT (0.72% weight in the previous period) in Q1, both cryptocurrency mining companies (including CORZ, reduced in the next section). Considering the fund added to similar companies like RIOT, CLSK, and BTDR, this is likely just standard portfolio rebalancing.

Sold Out: Significant Profit-Taking on BE

Finally, looking at the reduced holdings, Bloom Energy (BE) was Situational Awareness LP's largest disclosed position in the previous 13F filing. In Q1, the fund sold 3.59 million shares, reducing its portfolio weight from 15.87% last quarter to 6.42%.

Bloom Energy specializes in solid oxide fuel cell technology and is a core play for on-site independent power generation for data centers, bypassing the traditional grid. Given the remaining position remains substantial, the reduction likely represents routine profit-taking rather than a loss of conviction in the company.

CoreWeave call options (CRWV CALL) were the second largest reduction for Situational Awareness LP (portfolio weight plummeting from 14.04% to 1.03%). As mentioned earlier, the fund has shifted to holding CRWV common shares, making this more of a deleveraging move.

Situational Awareness LP also reduced its stake in Core Scientific (CORZ) by 2.74 million shares, lowering the position from 7.59% to 2.84%. CORZ is a leading company transforming from a Bitcoin miner to AI computing hosting. However, given that Situational Awareness LP added to other mining companies still in their transition phase with more attractive valuations this quarter, reducing CORZ appears to be partial profit-taking.

What is the "AI Stock God" Really Thinking?

Taking the 13F filing at face value, one might hastily conclude that Leopold Aschenbrenner, who once loudly proclaimed "AGI by 2027," has turned completely bearish on AI.

But the reality is clearly more nuanced. Within Situational Awareness LP's position structure, there are two seemingly contradictory yet highly unified themes.

• On one hand, extreme vigilance towards short-term valuation bubbles on the "chip side." Situational Awareness LP used a staggering amount of notional PUT (put option) positions, effectively buying "crash insurance" for the entire AI semiconductor chain, including NVIDIA, Broadcom, etc.;
• On the other hand, an almost obsessive optimism regarding long-term AI infrastructure demand. Whether it's CoreWeave, Bloom Energy, or a series of companies related to power, transformers, and data centers, they all point to one deterministic logic: the AI computing power war has entered deep waters.

This is likely the fund's most critical current judgment. What will truly be scarce in the future may not be the GPU chips themselves, but the energy, power systems, and data center infrastructure required to keep those GPUs running continuously. GPU production can scale, and advanced process technology will eventually ramp up, but megawatt-scale power supply capacity, transformers, transmission systems, and the construction cycle for large-scale data centers are difficult to replicate quickly. Compared to the already priced-in "selling shovels" logic, Leopold Aschenbrenner seems more focused on where the next phase of the AI industry might encounter genuine bottlenecks.

This explains why Situational Awareness LP is simultaneously buying large-scale semiconductor put options to hedge against severe volatility in the AI hardware sector, while continuing to heavily invest in GPU cloud services, power, and computing infrastructure assets.

In a sense, this 13F filing reads less like a simple disclosure of holdings and more like Leopold Aschenbrenner's roadmap for the next evolutionary phase of the AI industry chain.

When a genius investor who rocketed to fame by going "All In" on AI begins deploying billions of dollars in notional positions to buy insurance for the AI sector, it underscores at least one point: even the most steadfast AI bull of this era has started to take volatility seriously.