Odaily编辑部茶话会（6月24日）

This is an "informal" column from within the Odaily editorial department. Here, the author shares immediate reflections and unique perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their finer details; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses still being validated – which may not be direct paths to wealth and could simply be questions themselves; shares observations from exchanges with industry practitioners; and presents materials that have genuinely enhanced our understanding, regardless of their source.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial staff. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising nor constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is solely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to build consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Group, X Official Account) to discuss, question, and joke around with us.

Moni (@mich73692)

Bio: Keep striving, keep growing

Share: SpaceX's IPO had a bumpy start, but it still drew significant attention. Some believe the short-term price is more driven by IPO capital games, market sentiment, AI valuation logic, and institutional allocation rather than traditional valuation models. However, I feel that SpaceX isn't truly an "AI-themed stock" (rushing to merge xAI before listing to latch onto the AI concept); it's more of a tech-aerospace stock at best, so I'm not bullish on it long-term. I tried buying this US stock on Binance, and the experience was fairly smooth (I recommend transferring funds through a wallet first). However, for the sake of the experience, I bought SpaceX at $220 – the result was predictable. My preliminary judgment is that it will be difficult to rebound to the previous high before August.

According to the Kondratiev Wave theory, if we take the launch of ChatGPT as the start of the AI cycle, we are currently in the "early-to-mid stage." So, for now, I am bullish on US stock sectors like chips, storage, and photonics. Applying the same theory, if we take the birth of Bitcoin as the starting point, it seems we are gradually entering the "mid-to-late stage" of the cycle. The crypto market might still have 1-2 waves of frenzy, but it may slowly move towards the third and fourth phases of the Kondratiev Wave, similar to the real estate market in 2015-2016.

golem (@web3_golem)

Bio: Golem's whimsical ideas

Share: I took a look at the option open interest structure for SPCX expiring this week, and you can actually glean some insights from it. SPCX options started trading on June 16th, and call options were heavily bought right from the start. Because SpaceX's freely tradable float is already extremely low (4.2%), some analysts speculated that trading in SPCX options would trigger a Gamma Squeeze, pushing the SPCX stock price up. Unfortunately, that didn't happen; instead, SPCX plummeted, resulting in a victory for the bears.

Back to the present. As shown in the chart, SPCX is currently trading around $156. However, the largest concentration of open interest is not on the Put side but on the Calls at $170, $180, $200, and even $300. Particularly around $180, there stands the largest green bullish pillar (over 16K). Without a doubt, with only 2 days left to expiration and no exceptionally significant positive catalyst, $180 is the ceiling.

Conversely, structurally, $150 remains the most crucial psychological and technical support level for SPCX. If it breaks down, the safety cushion at $140-145 will be the next key level to watch. For now, the support seems strong enough, but if Musk pulls any more shenanigans causing the price to break down and trigger negative Gamma effects, it could easily fall below the IPO price.

Looking at the chart, $160 is the current battleground for bulls and bears. Open interest for both calls and puts is extremely dense around the $160-165 strike prices. Considering only 2 days are left until expiration, market makers will likely pin the price right around here, effectively neutralizing option buyers' premiums through a two-way slaughter.

However, after SPCX's continuous sharp decline, a significant amount of capital is still betting on a sharp short-term rebound. Therefore, if SPCX can effectively break through $165 and stand above $170, there is a possibility of triggering another Gamma Squeeze.

In summary, in this high OI zone, we still need to be cautious, especially about opening high-leverage positions betting on direction in the "awkward zone" of $155-160. Either wait for a surge in volume and a solid hold above $160, or patiently wait for a dip to $145-150.

However, there is always a gap between analysis and execution. For example, yesterday I was fixated on catching SPCX at $145, but it only dipped to around $147, fluctuating to $165 during the session. Because I was stubborn about the lower entry price, I missed this price swing.

Wenser (@wenser2010)

Bio: Tea-pouring junior, crypto bystander, media observer

Share: 1. I never expected that Strategy's STRC preferred shares originated from a strategy Saylor came up with using AI. Looking at the current situation, it feels like "America's Doubao says: Sorry, but this does have the issue of a death spiral." As a bellwether for the entire industry, it seems we need to go through a "coin divestment desensitization" phase, with BTC decisively breaking through the iron bottom of $49k before the next bull market arrives.

2. Recently, I've seen many people talking about the concept of "old school stocks" vs. "young stocks." I think many Chinese concept stocks fall into the former category, and even white liquor stocks – these "unique Chinese characteristics" – are on their last legs. Better to stick with "young stocks," cherish life, and stay away from the "old school."

3. After the first round of group stage matches in the World Cup, the top豪门 (major powerhouses) finally found their form. My strategy remains the same: buy championship predictions, as the odds still offer an advantage.

4. The Ethereum Foundation's layoffs and the establishment of ETHlabs signal that the official Ethereum organizational level is finally starting to take serious action. But it doesn't even seem like "closing the barn door after the horse has bolted" yet. I see ETH's price hitting the previous low (around $890) within this year.

Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng888)

Bio: Options enthusiast, Meme bag holder

Share: Recently, there have been a couple of fundamental "positive" developments for Ethereum. First, some veteran researchers established an independent non-profit R&D organization called Ethlabs, gaining support from major players like Joe Lubin (Ethereum co-founder), Bitmine, and SharpLink. Their goal is to help Ethereum achieve mass institutional adoption by tackling hardcore aspects like scalability, settlement, and interoperability. Second, the Ethereum Foundation is also starting to "slim down," gradually phasing down its direct intervention role. Combined, these two things show the Ethereum ecosystem becoming more decentralized. It no longer solely relies on the Foundation; more smart minds can contribute independently, making the network stronger.

Honestly, the current ETH price feels a bit painful. Many people, myself included, have been buying the dip all the way down from $4,000, incurring significant opportunity costs. However, Ethereum's fundamentals are actually very solid; its value is simply undervalued. Long-term, now is a good time to patiently build a position.

Another thing worth watching is SPCX. My personal plan is to buy in early July. At that time, SPCX is expected to be included in the Nasdaq-100 index, which should bring in a wave of buying pressure. I plan to hold it and sell by the end of July. The financial report for August is expected to be released, and I don't anticipate it being too optimistic.