警报拉满：日本央行加息25bp在即，美股、加密重现2024式闪崩？

Original by Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng888)

According to Nikkei News, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise its short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0% at its monetary policy meeting on June 15-16, marking the highest policy rate level since 1995. Currently, market pricing indicates an extremely high probability of a rate hike, with the probability of a "25bp (basis point) hike" on PolyMarket soaring from 25% in early April to 98%.

With the BOJ rate hike imminent, a large number of investors engaged in yen carry trades may be forced to sell overseas assets, convert back to yen, and repay loans, triggering a chain reaction that could amplify volatility in global risk assets. The flash crash in August 2024 serves as a typical example, where a sharp yen appreciation led to a short-term plunge in global stock markets, with Bitcoin dropping nearly $20,000 in a single day, a maximum decline of 15%.

Odaily Planet Daily will analyze the macroeconomic background and transmission mechanism of the BOJ rate hike, with a key focus on evaluating its risk impact on AI tech stocks and cryptocurrencies for readers' reference.

1. Inflation Risk Drives BOJ Rate Hike

Over the past two years, hawkish voices within the BOJ have grown stronger, culminating in the end of 17 years of negative interest rate policy in March 2024, raising the policy rate from -0.1% to a range of 0% to 0.1%, marking the first rate hike in this cycle. In July 2024, the BOJ hiked rates again by 15bp to 0.25% and announced a gradual balance sheet reduction; further 25bp hikes were implemented in January and December 2025, bringing the rate to 0.75%; the first three meetings of 2026 saw rates held steady. Below is a summary of the BOJ's rate hike decisions across several meetings:

After maintaining rates unchanged for half a year, why is the BOJ now eager to embark on a new round of rate hikes? This rate hike is primarily driven by two factors.

First, energy shocks and imported inflationary pressures. Oil price volatility resulting from conflicts in the Middle East in the first half of the year has significantly increased import costs for Japan, a country heavily reliant on imported energy. The Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) rose 6.3% year-on-year in May, the fastest pace since 2023, with petroleum products up 9.6% and utilities up 8.5%. The BOJ expects core CPI for fiscal year 2026 to rise to 2.5-3.0%, well above its 2% target.

Second, a weak yen exacerbating imported inflation. The current USD/JPY exchange rate continues to hover around the 158-160 high range, approaching historically extreme weak levels. The significant depreciation of the yen directly erodes the purchasing power of Japanese businesses for imports, leading to a substantial increase in the cost of importing energy, raw materials, and other commodities, further pushing up domestic prices. Although Japan's Ministry of Finance has intervened in the foreign exchange market multiple times, the effects have been limited and difficult to sustain. This situation is forcing the BOJ to tighten monetary policy (i.e., raise rates) at the June meeting to prevent inflation expectations from spiraling out of control.

In a speech on June 3, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda clearly shifted towards an anti-inflation narrative, emphasizing that if upside risks to prices outweigh downside risks to the economy, the pros and cons of a rate hike must be discussed.

Reuters, citing three sources familiar with the matter, reported that unless the Middle East conflict escalates sharply, the BOJ will raise rates in June and may slow the pace of bond tapering to maintain market stability. Bloomberg and institutions like ING maintain similar judgments, anticipating a total of 50bp in rate hikes by the BOJ in 2026.

This series of shifts marks Japan's transition from the "global lender of last resort" to a normalizing central bank, posing a direct challenge to global assets reliant on cheap yen financing.

2. Yen Carry Trade Unwinding Tightens Liquidity

The BOJ's long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy has made the yen carry trade a significant component of global liquidity over the past decade and more. Investors borrow yen at near-zero interest rates to invest in high-yield assets like U.S. stocks, tech stocks, emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies, profiting from interest rate differentials and capital gains.

This BOJ rate hike will directly raise the cost of yen financing and could trigger yen appreciation (USD/JPY decline), forcing leveraged investors to unwind positions, creating a positive feedback loop: Yen appreciation leads to greater exchange rate losses → higher financing costs → forced deleveraging by investors → large-scale selling of risk assets → further decline in asset prices → triggering more stop-loss orders → intensifying unwinding pressure.

Historically, every signal of policy tightening from the BOJ has triggered significant market volatility.

On July 31, 2024, the BOJ hiked rates by 15bp to 0.25% and announced a gradual tapering of its bond purchases. Combined with weak U.S. employment data, this triggered severe global market turmoil. At that time, both major South Korean stock indices (KOSPI and KOSDAQ) plummeted and triggered circuit breakers; the Japanese stock market crashed, with the Nikkei 225 plunging 12.4% in a single day and accumulating a decline of over 20% for the week, its worst performance since 1987; global stock markets fell in tandem, with U.S. stocks and tech stocks adjusting simultaneously, and the VIX fear index spiking. The crypto market was also severely impacted, with Bitcoin and ETH plummeting over 30% within a week, and leveraged liquidations surging.

According to an estimate by Morgan Stanley, although a significant number of positions have been gradually unwound since 2024, approximately $500 billion in open yen-financed positions still exist in the market. While the market has partially priced in some risks, these positions still pose a significant threat. Morgan Stanley warns that if the yen appreciates rapidly, it could trigger a chain of unwinds during periods of thin liquidity, particularly impacting highly leveraged assets.

Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, Head of Global Markets Strategy at J.P. Morgan, and foreign exchange strategist Meera Chandan both pointed out that the policy divergence between the BOJ and the Federal Reserve will exacerbate the instability of carry trade unwinding, potentially leading to a revaluation of global risk assets.

3. Global Risk Assets Under Pressure: No Escape for U.S. Stocks or Crypto

The AI-driven tech boom was the main theme of the U.S. stock market in the first half of 2026. Chip stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom, along with hyperscalers, propelled the Nasdaq to repeated record highs.

However, entering June, the market experienced significant rotation and pullback. Notably, on June 5, U.S. stocks faced their most severe single-day correction of 2026. The Nasdaq plummeted 4.18%, its largest single-day drop since April 2025; the S&P 500 fell 2.64%, ending a nine-week winning streak; the Dow Jones fell 1.35%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged over 10%, with AI core stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, and Marvell leading the decline. (Recommended reading: "Nasdaq Falls 4.2% in a Single Day, Does 'Black Friday' Prick the U.S. Stock Bubble?")

The U.S. stock pullback is attributed to both macroeconomic factors like geopolitical tensions and Fed policy uncertainty, but the potential impact from the BOJ's rate hike cannot be ignored.

First, tightening liquidity will directly hit high-valuation growth stocks. AI companies with massive capital expenditure needs are highly dependent on cheap financing. The unwinding of yen carry trades will reduce the flow of risk-seeking global capital, with high-beta tech stocks being the first affected. Semiconductor leaders like Nvidia and Broadcom, as well as hyperscalers like Meta and Microsoft, are highly sensitive to valuation and prone to selling pressure. Investing.com analysis points out that high-valuation growth sectors are most sensitive to changes in global liquidity and often experience rapid deleveraging once carry trades begin to unwind.

Second, rising energy costs will significantly compress AI profit margins. Higher oil prices driven by Middle East conflicts lead to soaring electricity and cooling costs for data centers. Combined with the BOJ rate hike, this creates a "stagflationary" macroeconomic environment that severely tests the sustainability of the AI business model.

BitMex founder Arthur Hayes, in his latest article "Reality Test", explicitly warned: "Energy reality is testing the market's current 'dreaming' state." High oil prices not only raise operating costs but could also slow down the growth of enterprise token usage, further denting AI-related revenue expectations.

Finally, the supply shock from mega IPOs and political/regulatory risks. Giants like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI plan a密集 listing in the second half of 2026, with valuations often reaching hundreds of times sales. The expiration of lock-up periods will bring massive supply pressure. Simultaneously, Trump might pivot against AI for the midterm elections, increasing regulatory uncertainty.

Cryptocurrencies, as the highest-beta global risk assets, face an even grimmer outlook. On one hand, the BOJ's rate hike raises financing costs, directly increasing the cost of global leveraged trading and forcing large-scale unwinding of crypto leveraged positions. On the other hand, in competing for liquidity with AI, AI capital expenditure has already absorbed significant market funds, leaving crypto behind. The BOJ's action will further tighten marginal liquidity.

Yahoo Finance analyst Lockridge Okoth stated that the 98% probability of a rate hike could trigger the next liquidity shock for Bitcoin. Investing.com analysis points out that yen appreciation and BTC weakness are often highly synchronized, serving as a typical signal of rising global risk aversion.

Arthur Hayes has also emphasized in multiple analyses that the dynamics of the yen carry trade remain a key variable affecting Bitcoin liquidity, reminding investors to watch for short-term liquidity shocks triggered by policy signals. In a recent article, Hayes stressed the need to be cautious of the combined impact of short-term energy costs and monetary policy risks; BTC/ETH may adjust in the short term along with risk assets, with the long-term outlook depending on the restart of liquidity.

Conclusion:

The resurgence of BOJ rate hike concerns is not an isolated event but a signal of tightening global liquidity margins. This is compounded by current Middle East geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices, AI capital expenditure consuming liquidity, and uncertainty from the Fed's policy, further compressing the buffer space.

For investors, in the short term, global risk assets—especially high-leverage, high-valuation sectors like AI tech stocks and cryptocurrencies—may face significant downward pressure. Volatility is expected to rise markedly. Investors need to maintain a high degree of vigilance and be mindful of leverage risks.