五大历史级指标同时亮灯，比特币熊市见底

Original from Blockworks Research

Compiled by Odaily Golem (@web3_golem)

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin's current price is 50% below its all-time high, and the bear market has lasted over 40 weeks. A range of long-term cycle indicators suggests the market may be at or near a bottom in both price and time;
• This month, Bitcoin hit its most oversold level ever versus the Nasdaq index, and in February it also hit its most oversold level ever versus gold. Previous instances approaching these extreme levels have typically foreshadowed long-term cycle lows, heralding positive returns and outperformance for Bitcoin over the following 1-3 years;
• Bitcoin's realized price (the aggregate on-chain cost basis of the circulating supply) is currently $53,000, 18% below the spot price. Historically, every bear market low has seen Bitcoin's price fall below its realized price, an event that has occurred only 12% of the time in Bitcoin's history. From these points, Bitcoin has generated substantial returns over 1-3 year horizons;
• Historical bear market cycles have typically bottomed around week 60 after an all-time high, suggesting a potential low for this cycle around the end of November 2026;
• In summary, the confluence of current factors suggests the period from now until December 2026 may represent a highly attractive long-term re-accumulation opportunity for Bitcoin.

Diminishing Returns and the Need for Conditional Investment

Bitcoin's price has been range-bound since March 2021. Its ratio against the Nasdaq index has also been flat since November 2017, spanning nearly nine years. Over this extended timeframe, Bitcoin's performance versus equity indices has been relatively flat, while its volatility has been significantly higher. On a risk-adjusted basis, Bitcoin has underperformed equity indices.

This context is crucial for how one holds Bitcoin. As its price rises and falls, marginal returns will diminish. The passive, always-long strategy that rewarded holders in past cycles is now proving less effective. Consequently, generating excess returns increasingly requires seizing opportunities to tactically increase or decrease Bitcoin exposure.

To identify these opportunity windows, the indicators presented in this article are conditional signals. They remain 'silent' for most of history, with their strongest signals appearing in the tails, only a few times per decade.

Currently, these signals have all triggered simultaneously, pointing to the same conclusion: Bitcoin is likely at or near a long-term cyclical price low.

Indicator 1: Nasdaq/Bitcoin Relative Strength Signal

The first signal is based on the ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Index to Bitcoin, calculated using weekly closing prices over the past 875 periods. We compute the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) of this ratio, smoothed with a 14-period simple moving average.

A rising RSI indicates the Nasdaq is overbought relative to Bitcoin; a falling RSI indicates the opposite. This is not an intraday trading technical indicator. It is a 14-week moving average of a 14-week oscillator, and transitions between overbought and oversold states occur over multi-year market cycles, not days or weeks.

Nasdaq/BTC RSI

Significant Nasdaq relative overbought conditions are rare. The RSI moving average has been above 65 only 5.78% of the time historically, and above 70 only 0.35% of the time. These thresholds were breached in only four periods: February 2015, February 2019, August 2022, and the period starting in late January 2026 which continues to the present.

The current reading needs to be analyzed in three ways:

• First, the current level of 72.6 is an all-time high, 4.1 points above the previous high of 68.5 set in September 2022. All observations above 70 have occurred within the last month;
• Second, the current cycle has lasted 24 weeks, a record duration, far exceeding the 11 weeks in 2015, 4 weeks in 2019, and 10 weeks in 2022;
• Third, having occurred only four times in 16 years, the present situation represents one of the rarest phenomena for this indicator. By this measure, the Nasdaq is at its most overbought level ever versus Bitcoin. Conversely, viewed from a longer timeframe, this represents Bitcoin's most oversold level ever versus the Nasdaq.

Indicator 2: Long-Term Expected Returns

Taking the three previous cycles where the Nasdaq/Bitcoin RSI exceeded 66, the expected return profiles for BTC/USD and BTC/NAS100 show upside asymmetry, but only over longer time horizons.

Comparison of Expected Returns for BTC/USD and BTC/NAS100

Nasdaq/BTC RSI Expected Returns

This table has two important characteristics:

• First, the time horizon. Short-term expected returns offer little guidance, as 30 to 120-day returns are small and directionally mixed. For instance, holding Bitcoin in 2022 resulted in a 29.1% decline over 120 days, but a 397% rebound three years later. Relative strength signals have limited predictive power for the next one to three years.
• Second, the decay in return magnitude. The three-year Bitcoin return for each cycle is roughly one-quarter to one-third of the previous cycle's return, consistent with the law of diminishing marginal returns discussed earlier. In all observations, Bitcoin significantly outperformed the Nasdaq over the subsequent three years.

Indicator 3: Gold/Bitcoin Relative Strength Signal

If the Nasdaq represents Bitcoin's status as a risk asset, gold represents its status as a monetary store of value.

Constructing a similar indicator for the Gold/Bitcoin ratio, we observe analogous data: readings above 66 are rare, exhibit mean-reversion properties, and cluster around extreme values. According to this metric, February 2026 was the most overbought period in the history of Gold/Bitcoin.

Gold/Bitcoin RSI

Elevated RSI readings for this pair have coincided with long-term cyclical price lows for Bitcoin, exhibiting a typical pattern. The expected return profile for this indicator mirrors the findings for the Nasdaq. Over 1-3 year timeframes, following such extreme RSI readings, Bitcoin has historically outperformed both gold and the US dollar.

Comparison of Expected Returns for BTC/USD and XAU/BTC

Indicator 4: Bitcoin Realized Price (On-Chain Cost Basis)

The Bitcoin realized price estimates the aggregate on-chain cost basis of all circulating Bitcoin. Unlike the spot price, which reflects the current market value, the realized price measures the average price at which the existing supply last moved on-chain, thus estimating the on-chain cost basis. Historically, the realized price has represented a deep value level for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin On-Chain Realized Price

The realized price serves as a reference point, not a strict floor. Currently, the Bitcoin realized price is $53,000, 18% below the spot price. The spot price has been below the realized price only 12% of the time in Bitcoin's history.

Similar to the RSI indicators mentioned above, this situation represents a tail-end cycle signal. Every bear market low in Bitcoin's history has seen the spot price fall below the realized price. Historically, entering this zone has often been followed by further price declines before a final bottom is reached. Therefore, a drop to or below $53,000 would be consistent with historical precedent, not a violation of it.

Starting from the point of entering this zone, long-term expected returns have been substantial.

Price Performance After Bitcoin Spot Price Drops Below Realized Price

Calculated from the first weekly close below the realized price in each cycle, historical data shows significant positive returns over the following 150 weeks. The magnitude of these figures has decreased cycle over cycle, consistent with the decay trend seen in the RSI indicators, but the direction remains consistent.

Historically, Bitcoin's first weekly close below the realized price has marked the end phase of the bear market, not its beginning or middle. Nevertheless, the multiple of the Bitcoin spot price relative to the realized price has declined significantly from its prior 2025-cycle highs, indicating reduced market risk.

Indicator 5: Cycle Clock

The final indicator is the most straightforward, illustrating the historical structure of Bitcoin bear markets, measured in both price and time.

Duration of Bitcoin Bear Markets

In the cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin price lows typically occurred around week 60 after the all-time high. The current cycle is at week 40, with a drawdown of 50%, broadly aligning with the trajectory of the previous three cycles. If the week 60 pattern holds, Bitcoin's low would likely form around the end of November 2026.

Despite the extreme readings in the Nasdaq 100/Bitcoin and Gold/Bitcoin RSI indicators, this cycle's drawdown remains consistent with historical drawdown paths.

The time dimension also shows compression between cycles, with each cycle reaching new all-time highs in progressively shorter timeframes. In other words, the time taken to reclaim the previous high is shorter than in the prior cycle. Assuming this trend continues, the next all-time high should occur within 120 weeks of the previous high, implying a new high before February 2028.

These two observations do not contain any inherent mechanism; they are merely empirical regularities observed across a few cycles. They serve as time anchors, superimposed on the condition-based signals discussed earlier, helping to bound Bitcoin's remaining downside risk. If the historical structure holds, Bitcoin is approximately 20 weeks away from its low or may have already bottomed.

Future Price Path for Bitcoin

Given the current situation, the following scenario combination incorporates the background and historical outcomes discussed earlier to outline a range of potential paths for Bitcoin over the next three years. This is not a prediction or assertion of likely outcomes, but rather an attempt to answer: If the current situation resolves in a manner similar to how analogous situations have resolved in the past, where might the price go?

Assuming diminishing marginal returns on both upsides and downsides, a persistent discount to the realized price, and referencing historical drawdown paths in price and time, we construct potential Bitcoin price trajectories under these conditions. Each trajectory is derived from Bitcoin's three-year performance following a given signal, scaled with varying intensity ranging from 0.33 to 0.80 to account for cyclical return compression. The shaded bands in the chart represent the boundaries of the historical distribution after scaling, not the boundaries of potential market movement.

The shaded area shows the range of these possibilities.

Projection of Future Bitcoin Price Paths

These shaded bands represent scaled reproductions of historical paths following the signaling of indicators. All these possible outcomes are plausible, describing scenarios where history rhymes, rather than encompassing all possible outcomes. They do not include scenarios where the signals fail.

While returns are expected to be mixed towards the end of 2026, by 2027 and 2028, the return distribution shifts decisively towards positive and asymmetric upside. Given the current market environment and projected paths, the coming quarters could offer a highly attractive opportunity for long-term investment in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Projection for the Next 3 Years

Risks and Limitations

Each indicator should be evaluated and weighted on its own merits. These indicators should not be interpreted as mechanisms or causal factors for Bitcoin cycle lows, but rather as manifestations that have historically coincided with, and exhibited characteristics of, long-term cyclical lows.

Furthermore, the listed indicators are not exhaustive of all metrics that could approximate long-term cyclical price lows. The analysis is based on a small sample size. The RSI moving average shows valid signals across four independent cycles, one of which is ongoing; the realized price study is based on four cycles, and the cycle symmetry analysis on the first three completed cycles. With such a small sample size, the historical expected return distributions can describe historical tendencies, but a divergence in just one cycle would significantly weaken all the presented relationships.

Additionally, the presented signals should not be considered independent corroborations. The RSI indicators, proximity to realized price, and cycle clock position are, to a large extent, different measures of the same underlying fact: Bitcoin has experienced a significant and sustained drawdown from its highs. In any deep, prolonged drawdown, each of these indicators would tend towards extremes. Therefore, their simultaneous occurrence may be more akin to a single observation measured in multiple ways, rather than several independent and unique observations.

Structural changes could cause this cycle to ultimately diverge. The current cycle is the first to incorporate ETF holdings, significant corporate treasury positions, and more complex derivatives trading involving options and perpetual futures. The four-year cycle framework may ultimately prove to be merely a description of four observations, rather than an enduring characteristic of the asset.

Finally, the RSI indicator signals are relative. Bitcoin outperforming the Nasdaq or gold could mean both assets are rising, or that they are declining at different rates. Even if the RSI signals are favorable for Bitcoin, a correction in equity markets or gold prices from current highs could drag down Bitcoin's nominal price. The signals presented here have little predictive power for movements before November, only reflecting the asymmetry in price trajectories over the next 1-3 years.

Conclusion

However, considering the indicators outlined above, the conclusion we reach is that Bitcoin is likely at or near a cyclical low, which may form before the year's end, followed by a resumption of its upward trend.

Each signal has appeared near historically rare extremes, and each has previously preceded significant gains for Bitcoin and outperformance versus equities over the following years. If the low has not yet occurred, the period from now until the low is likely to represent a highly attractive long-term re-accumulation zone for Bitcoin. These signals have remained silent for most of history, but now they have flashed a 'green light'.