Gate 研究院：史诗级 IPO 浪潮下，Pre-IPO 代币能否打开散户一级市场时代？

Summary

In 2026, global capital markets are experiencing an unprecedented "IPO Super Cycle." Leading private tech companies, including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, are sequentially advancing their Initial Public Offering (IPO) plans. Among them, SpaceX targets a valuation of up to $2 trillion and plans to raise $75 billion, potentially becoming the largest IPO in history. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic have valuations in private markets that have surpassed or are approaching $1 trillion each. This capital feast of unprecedented scale will not only reshape the landscape of traditional financial markets but also have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market.

This article delves into the multi-dimensional impact of this macro event on the crypto market. First, we analyze the potential short-term liquidity shock caused by the "siphoning effect" of these mega IPOs. Secondly, we focus on analyzing how the crypto market, through innovative mechanisms such as Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization and Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), provides retail and institutional investors with on-chain channels to participate in Pre-IPO investments in top tech companies. Finally, we systematically compare the Pre-IPO products launched by Gate and look forward to the long-term impact of this trend on the future trading landscape.

1. The Super Cycle of Capital Markets

The capital markets of 2026 are destined to be written into history. After years of high-interest rates and valuation resets in the primary market, the world's three most influential private tech companies—SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—are accelerating their IPO plans. This IPO wave, dubbed the "Super Cycle," will not only break historical records in terms of fundraising scale but will also profoundly impact global macro asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, regarding asset pricing logic.

1.1 SpaceX: The Space Titan Challenging a $2 Trillion Valuation

SpaceX is an American commercial aerospace company founded by Elon Musk. Its core businesses encompass reusable rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and deep space exploration and crewed spaceflight. On April 1, 2026, SpaceX confidentially submitted its IPO registration documents to the U.S. SEC, formally initiating the listing process. Subsequently, on May 20, 2026, SpaceX publicly disclosed its S-1 prospectus, further clarifying its listing timeline. Market participants widely anticipate it will debut on the Nasdaq as early as June 2026, under the proposed ticker symbol "SPCX."

SpaceX's IPO could become the largest public offering in global history. Multiple reports suggest a potential fundraising scale of approximately $75 billion, with a valuation range between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. Some market communications even point towards a valuation exceeding $2 trillion.

If this target is achieved, SpaceX's IPO would overwhelmingly surpass the $29.4 billion fundraising record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. In comparison, SpaceX's expected fundraising of $75 billion will make it one of the most iconic IPOs in the history of global capital markets.

Supporting this astonishing valuation is the strong growth and vertical integration of SpaceX's three core businesses:

• Starlink: SpaceX's global satellite internet business provides high-speed broadband connectivity to users worldwide via a low-Earth orbit satellite constellation.

• Launch Services (Falcon Rocket / Starship): SpaceX's aerospace launch business, responsible for launching satellites, cargo, crewed missions, and deep space missions, is one of the company's core revenue sources.

• Starshield: SpaceX's military aerospace business serving government and defense clients, providing satellite communication, remote sensing, and infrastructure services related to national security.

Among these, Starlink, the world's fastest-growing satellite internet service, surpassed 10 million active users in early 2026. It is projected to generate over $20 billion in revenue in 2026 and achieved breakeven cash flow in 2023. Regarding launch services, SpaceX completed 165 orbital launches in 2025, deploying approximately 85% of the world's spacecraft. Its Falcon 9 rocket has reduced launch costs to under $1,000 per kilogram. In its core AI business, SpaceX merged with Musk's xAI in February 2026, integrating aerospace launch, global communications, and AI model infrastructure under a single entity. Additionally, Musk has proposed the ambitious vision of launching 100 Gigawatts of AI computing power annually.

1.2 OpenAI and Anthropic: The $1 Trillion AI Duo

As SpaceX advances its IPO, the two AI giants, OpenAI and Anthropic, are also engaged in fierce competition in the capital markets. OpenAI is an AI company focused on developing Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), with core products including ChatGPT, the GPT series of models, and a multi-modal AI platform. OpenAI's commercialization has been extremely rapid, with annualized revenue surging from approximately $200 million in 2022 to over $10 billion in 2025. Based on trading data of tokenized SPV assets on the Jupiter chain, OpenAI's implied valuation reached $1 trillion in April 2026, a 163% increase from October 2025. Currently, OpenAI plans to IPO as early as Q4 2026.

Anthropic is an AI company founded by former OpenAI members, focusing on developing the Claude series of large language models that emphasize safety, controllability, and long-term alignment. Anthropic's recent valuation surge is equally remarkable. In February 2026, the company achieved a post-money valuation of $380 billion in its Series G funding round. However, just three months later, data from secondary market platforms like Forge Global shows Anthropic's valuation has soared to approximately $1 trillion, surpassing OpenAI (traded at an implied valuation of ~$880 billion on Forge) in the secondary market for the first time. This surge is primarily attributed to the widespread adoption of its enterprise-grade coding tool, Claude Code, which propelled its annualized revenue from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $30 billion in March 2026, a single-quarter increase of 233%. The market currently expects Anthropic to launch its IPO as early as October 2026, potentially raising over $60 billion.

The concentrated listing of these three giants means that assets totaling nearly $4 trillion will gradually enter the public market. The capital diversion effect will inevitably transmit to various risk assets, including the crypto market.

2. Profound Impact on Crypto Market Liquidity and Trading Landscape

When hard-tech assets with high certainty and growth potential, such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, enter the public market, they inevitably trigger a reallocation of capital—creating short-term capital outflow pressure while, in the long term, providing new catalysts for the pricing logic and infrastructure integration of crypto assets.

2.1 Short-Term Siphoning Effect and Transmission Mechanism

Regarding the short-term siphoning effect, during the subscription period and initial trading days of these mega IPOs (expected in H2 2026), institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals often need to raise significant cash to secure allocation shares. This liquidity demand could lead to capital outflows from high-risk assets like the crypto market, particularly from crypto funds and family offices that have reaped substantial profits in the previous bull market. They may choose to profit from some crypto holdings and rotate capital into these once-in-a-century tech unicorns.

However, to assess the potential magnitude of the siphoning effect, we must first anchor the fundraising volumes of the three major IPOs. Based on current secondary market valuations: SpaceX's latest funding round corresponds to a valuation of ~$2 trillion, OpenAI ~$1 trillion, and Anthropic ~$1 trillion. Even if all three adopt a conservative 10-15% public float ratio, the total new share issuance could range from $400 billion to $600 billion. When combined with potential selling by large shareholders, the actual capital demand would be further amplified.

The operational path for institutional investors participating in large IPOs does not simply involve using idle cash; it follows a systematic liquidity management logic. First, the subscription and allocation system requires institutions to pay margins or full funds to underwriters during the subscription period, with funds typically locked from T-5 to T+1. Second, for hot IPOs with a high probability of oversubscription, institutions tend to over-subscribe, further amplifying short-term cash needs. Third, family offices and hedge funds commonly use risk assets (including crypto assets) as liquidity reserves. When cash demand intensifies, these assets are often the first positions to be reduced. This transmission chain can be simplified as: Surge in IPO subscription demand → Institutions raise cash → Net selling of crypto assets → Increase in fiat withdrawals from exchanges, stablecoin market cap faces pressure → Liquidity flows unidirectionally towards the stock market.

While historical samples of this magnitude are scarce, several local case studies are available for reference. For example, on April 14, 2021, the day of Coinbase's direct listing, Bitcoin touched an all-time high of ~$64,000 before immediately correcting over 50%. Some analysis attributes this to a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event, where institutions tend to cash out upon event completion rather than continuously buying. Similarly, during Alibaba's IPO in 2014, a noticeable but temporary outflow of funds from global emerging markets occurred. Prior to Facebook's IPO in 2012, the Nasdaq index, represented by tech growth stocks, experienced a structural correction of approximately 5% in the two weeks leading up to the subscription window, with the market attributing this to institutions reshuffling positions to free up cash.

2.2 Long-Term Wealth Effect and Crypto Sector Divergence

The long-term wealth effect and spillover are precisely the opposite of the short-term liquidity pressure. The listing of SpaceX and AI giants will convert the illiquid equity held by early investors, founding teams, and employees into wealth that can be readily realized. According to historical experience, this large-scale wealth realization often produces a significant spillover effect after the lock-up period expires. Some of this capital will seek new high-growth targets, and blue-chip crypto assets, AI infrastructure tokens, and high-performance networks are likely candidates to absorb this inflow.

Take SpaceX as an example. It has over 13,000 employees. According to public information, employee stock options and Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) account for approximately 8-10% of total shares outstanding. At a $2 trillion valuation, employee stock holdings alone represent a market value exceeding $160-200 billion. After the lock-up period (typically 180 days post-IPO), this wealth transforms from illiquid assets into readily deployable cash. Combined with partial selling by early institutional investors (Founders Fund, Google, Fidelity, etc.), the total anticipated wealth realization could be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Based on historical precedent, the wealth effect from Google's 2004 IPO directly spurred the angel investing boom in the San Francisco Bay Area. Following Facebook's lock-up expiration in 2012, venture capital transaction volume in Silicon Valley increased by over 40% year-over-year in the subsequent twelve months.

However, not all crypto assets will benefit proportionally from this wave of wealth spillover. Capital flows typically follow the principle of cognitive anchoring. For example, investors who have just profited from the AI sector tend to deploy new wealth into familiar and logically similar areas. Therefore, crypto assets can be classified into three categories:

• Alpha: AI infrastructure tokens are directly linked to the narrative of large model computing power, possessing the strongest cognitive migration path. High-performance public chains, which host numerous AI applications and DePIN projects, will be included in allocations as infrastructure premiums. Decentralized storage benefits from the AI data infrastructure narrative.

• Blue Chips: Major coins (BTC, ETH) may receive passive allocations from new wealth, acting as "tickets" for capital entering the crypto market.

• Affected or Unrelated Sectors: Tokens unrelated to AI and hard-tech narratives may face pressure from liquidity migration during the capital reallocation process.

Once price increases occur due to this sector divergence, it will further strengthen the market narrative, attract retail investors to follow, and create a positive reflexivity loop. For example, AI tokens have shown an empirical high correlation with tech stocks. If the listing of OpenAI and Anthropic reignites market enthusiasm for the AI computing cycle, the premium for related tokens may significantly exceed levels supported by fundamentals.

Combining the two stages, the short-term period (approximately 4-6 weeks around the subscription period) shows net outflow pressure, with the overall crypto market under strain, but sector divergence begins to emerge. The medium-term period (before the lock-up expiration, roughly 3-6 months post-IPO) enters a digestion phase where the market seeks new narrative anchors. In the long-term post-lock-up period, the wealth spillover effect dominates, and AI-related crypto assets see structural incremental capital inflows. This temporal structure provides investors with clear strategic windows: avoid short-term liquidity shocks, use pullbacks to accumulate high-conviction AI infrastructure tokens, and complete position layouts before the lock-up expiration wave arrives.

3. Cryptocurrency and Pre-IPO Mechanisms Reshape Retail Investment Barriers

Traditionally, pre-IPO investment opportunities in super unicorns like SpaceX and OpenAI were almost entirely monopolized by top-tier venture capital firms, sovereign wealth funds, and a very few ultra-high-net-worth individuals. Ordinary investors and retail participants could only buy shares at a significant premium on the secondary market after the company's listing. However, in 2026, the crypto market is completely breaking down this barrier through Pre-IPO tokenization. For instance, Gate's SpaceX token has a minimum investment threshold of just $0.01, whereas traditional Pre-IPO investments involving VC/PE institutions typically require a minimum subscription of at least $1 million.

3.1 The Explosion of the RWA Tokenization Track

The rise of Pre-IPO tokens is a natural byproduct of the maturation of the entire RWA tokenization infrastructure. According to a research report by Chainalysis in April 2026, excluding stablecoins, the on-chain RWA market grew approximately 30% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, approaching a total size of $30 billion. Pre-IPO tokens are the fastest-growing and most narrative-driven sub-category within this wave of growth.

Institutional-grade assets, such as asset-backed credit and tokenized US Treasuries, are the main drivers of growth. However, Pre-IPO equity tokenization is becoming one of the fastest-growing verticals. Chainalysis's research also found that institutional-grade RWA assets take only 6.1 months to go from their first on-chain issuance to surpassing a $1 billion market cap, much faster than the 36.2 months for retail-oriented commodity assets. This indicates that large financial institutions are integrating RWA tokenization into their asset allocation frameworks at an unprecedented pace.

For retail investors, the ability to lower the investment threshold from a traditional $1 million to as little as $100, coupled with 24/7 instant global settlement, represents an advantage that the traditional financial system cannot match.

3.2 Operational Mechanism: Combining SPVs with Tokenization

Pre-IPO tokens are blockchain-based digital assets designed to provide retail investors with economic exposure to the pre-IPO valuation of private companies. Their core operational mechanism typically involves the following steps:

1. Asset Acquisition: The platform acquires real equity in the target company (e.g., SpaceX) through the private secondary market or from existing shareholders.

2. Establishment of an SPV: These equity shares are deposited into a regulated Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), which holds them on behalf of token holders.

3. On-Chain Minting: The platform mints tokens on a blockchain (typically Solana or an Ethereum L2) on a 1:1 basis representing shares in the SPV.

4. Exchange Trading: Investors can buy and sell these tokens on the exchange.

It is crucial to emphasize that these tokens do not grant holders actual ownership, voting rights, or dividend rights in the company. They are purely economic certificates tracking the company's valuation changes.

With the rapid development of the market, four main Pre-IPO participation models have evolved within the industry, each with its unique risk-return profile:

4. Evolution of the Trading Landscape: The New Battleground for Crypto Exchanges

In the battle to capture the dividends of the "IPO Super Cycle," major global cryptocurrency exchanges are positioning this as a core battlefield to attract incremental traditional capital and retail users.

4.1 Industry Pre-IPO Product Exploration and Gate's Pre-IPOs Approach

Since April 2026, Pre-IPO assets have gradually moved from niche concepts towards productized exploration by trading platforms and Web3 gateways. Several models have emerged in the market: some package equity exposure in high-profile private companies like SpaceX into tradable assets through compliant investment platforms, structured notes, or SPV structures; others lower the technical barriers for ordinary users to participate in Pre-IPO asset trading via on-chain tokens or wallet aggregation portals.

Within this