Energy crisis looming, the United States is losing the war against Iran
2026-05-12 13:00
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In the coming weeks, the world may begin to pay the bills for this war.
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- Core Thesis: Citing Robert Kagan's concession statement in *The Atlantic*, the article argues that the U.S. strategic failure in Iran is not a local battlefield defeat but a fundamental loss of global energy security and dominance over the Gulf order. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz signals the replacement of the "freedom of navigation" system with a "permit system." The U.S. is unable to reopen the strait, triggering a global energy crisis and a restructuring of the global order.
- Key Elements:
- Strategic Defeat Confirmed: Robert Kagan, a long-time defender of U.S. military intervention, acknowledges that the U.S. has suffered a decisive defeat in Iran that is "irreparable and cannot be ignored," radically different in nature from the Vietnam or Afghanistan wars.
- Control of the Strait of Hormuz: Iran closes the strait and establishes a transit permit system, cutting off approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil. The U.S. Navy's "Freedom Project" escorts only two commercial vessels per week, far below the pre-war daily average of 130.
- Global Energy Crisis Spreads: Sri Lanka implements fuel rationing, Pakistan adopts a four-day workweek, India's reserves are down to 6-10 days, Japan releases strategic reserves for a second time, and many countries adopt measures including tax reductions, driving restrictions, and subsidies.
- Military Capacity and Stockpiles Depleted: After just weeks of combat with Iran, a "second-rate power," U.S. weapons stockpiles have been drained to dangerously low levels, making it impossible to effectively reopen the strait, with allies refusing to take over the mission.
- Collapse of Gulf Security Architecture: Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, having witnessed the U.S. inability to defend the sea lanes, are turning to compromise with Iran. The U.S. security guarantee has been proven false, and the world is beginning to reorganize itself around this fact.
- Policy Deception and Consequences: The war was packaged as a "quick victory," but policymakers ignored military warnings (including the Joint Chiefs of Staff's predictions regarding the strait's closure). The price is paid by ordinary people dependent on supply chains, such as fuel car drivers, small business owners, and food consumers.
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