Niche Perspective: Why It's Hard for HYPE to Double Again

Original Title: Unpopular Take: Why HYPE Won't Do A 2X From Here

Original Author: Catrina

Original Translation: Peggy, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: HYPE remains one of the most closely watched assets in the crypto market. According to CoinGecko data, HYPE is trading around $42 recently, up approximately 8% and 16.8% over the past 7 and 30 days respectively, with a market cap of about $10.1 billion. It has been called one of the hottest crypto trades of the year, noting that HYPE has recorded roughly 60% gains even amid a broader crypto bear market.

However, the author questions its upside potential from a price structure perspective: 75% of yet-unlocked token supply implies persistent selling pressure ahead; its current FDV already approaches or even exceeds the valuation ranges of some traditional exchanges; and at this price, it remains unclear whether new marginal buyers will come from retail, traditional institutions, or crypto funds.

More notably, HYPE faces not just valuation issues but also risks including regulation, hacking, key-person dependency, and trader liquidity migration. For an asset that has already received full market attention and concentrated KOL shilling, the real question is no longer "Does it have a narrative?" but rather "At this price, who will keep buying?"

The value of this article lies in offering a冷静 (calm) contrarian perspective: when a crypto asset transitions from alpha to consensus, investors need to reassess not just how good the project itself is, but whether the current price has already front-loaded the future.

The following is the original text:

I moved this article to Substack earlier because this view is controversial, and I'm not the type to argue on X. But in the end, I decided to put it back on X. I want to publicly document my thinking, regardless of whether it turns out to be right or wrong.

Writing this article won't win me more friends. Many people in crypto whom I really like are super bullish on HYPE, and I have no motive to FUD it. I'm writing this because amidst the frenzy on CT, someone needs to offer a calmer perspective. Here I compile my contrarian views on HYPE into a full article.

First, I'm not denying that HYPE is absolutely one of the most impressive projects out there right now. Everything below is not an assessment of HYPE's fundamentals as a business, but merely an objective judgment on its price trajectory.

Let me cut to the chase: HYPE is not cheap. I don't believe it can do a 2x from its current price—that is, doubling from today's $40. When market sentiment gets euphoric again, the price might briefly spike above 2x, but within a relatively reasonable fluctuation range, over the long term, its price will likely plateau below $80. And that's already a relatively optimistic assessment. Here's why:

75% Yet-Unlocked Token Supply Will Bring ~3x Selling Pressure

HYPE's current FDV is about $40 billion, but only 25% is in circulation, with token unlocks continuing until 2028.

Let's run a basic sanity check with a few comparable entities:

·CME's all-time high market cap was approximately $118 billion, about 3x HYPE's current FDV;

·ICE's all-time high market cap was approximately $107 billion, about 2.5x HYPE's;

·Nasdaq's all-time high market cap was approximately $57 billion, about 1.5x HYPE's.

If someone buying HYPE today wants to make 2x, they must assume:

·Either the HYPE team will never sell; or the 3x net new selling pressure from future team unlocks will require 6x marginal buying to absorb; or some scenario in between;

·HYPE must not only surpass Nasdaq but approach CME's all-time high. Remember, CME is the world's largest derivatives exchange, processing over $1 quadrillion in notional volume annually, with a 130-year regulatory moat.

So the Real Question Is: Who Are the Marginal Buyers at This Price?

Market buyers generally fall into two categories: retail and institutions.

·Retail: What "secret" or "alpha" is left to trigger new buying? Almost everyone, including their grandmother, knows HYPE is crypto's star project. HYPE is no one's secret anymore. There may still be some sidelined buyers, but how many exactly?

·Institutions: This part could truly change the game. Institutional buyers here can be further divided into two types:

i. Wall Street hedge funds or mutual funds;

ii. Crypto hedge funds.

For the first type, I highly doubt traditional asset managers will touch HYPE, as it operates in a non-compliant gray zone. Its no-KYC setup and regulatory arbitrage are indeed advantages for rapid expansion, but can endowments and mutual funds truly accept and endorse such risks? You could say PURR is an entry path, but that depends on their own risk tolerance—I can't judge.

Even if they were willing to buy, who do you think these Wall Street veterans would compare HYPE to? Not BNB; more likely Nasdaq, whose all-time high is merely 1.5x HYPE's current FDV; going further, they might reluctantly compare it to CME, whose all-time high is less than 3x HYPE's.

For the second type, ask any rational crypto hedge fund manager on CT: when HYPE's FDV reaches $80 billion, will they continue to hold? Even if they want to hold, they must reduce positions due to fiduciary duty to LPs. Expecting an unregulated perpetuals exchange like HYPE to be valued above CME would seem highly unrealistic to LPs.

So tell me: where exactly will these marginal buyers come from? And we need a lot of them.

Hacking Risk Is Rising

Whether it's Lazarus Group or future Mythos-level AI hacking capabilities, if someone wants to attack crypto, where do you think the biggest honey pot will be?

Not to Mention Key-Person Risk

Hyperliquid has some of the most severe key-person risk in crypto. Jeff leads an 11-person team, adhering to a product-first, no-VC philosophy, and every part of the infrastructure—matching engine, validator code, execution logic—is built in-house.

If something goes wrong, can anyone point to public documentation about backend knowledge transfer? Hopefully, it never comes to that.

Yan is the sole strategic and technical anchor for a protocol processing over $10 billion in daily trading volume. There's no named co-founder, no visible succession plan, and no governance oversight. I sincerely hope Jeff is channeling a significant portion of profits into security and protection.

Crypto Traders Are Essentially Mercenaries

For projects trying to retain users, blockchain interoperability is definitely a bug, not a feature. At some point, traders will find HYPE's upside too slow and shift liquidity to the next potential 10x target.

In crypto, network effects are not sticky. I've written extensively on this before.

As for those comparing HYPE to BNB—please, that's not a valid benchmark, for three reasons:

BNB is 100% unlocked, with no net new selling pressure; HYPE's current circulating supply is only about 24%.

Binance is willing to do much more for BNB, actively "propping it up to the throne"; HYPE leans more toward a laissez-faire strategy.

For price action, the most important question remains: "Who are the marginal buyers?" For rational institutional buyers, the comparable would be CME/Nasdaq, not BNB.

In summary, if I were an investor:

If I want to buy crypto and hold for years, why would I choose HYPE? It still has ~76% of tokens yet to unlock, meaning roughly 3x net supply pressure. In comparison, why not choose BTC at $70,000? BTC is the only digital gold, 100% in circulation, with no centralized control and completely non-fungible. HYPE, just to maintain its current price, needs to find 3x new net buyers.

If I want to buy a crypto that might 10x, why choose a token with an FDV already at $40 billion, extremely high consensus, ever-increasing DEX competition, and every KOL shilling their own positions? In comparison, why not choose a memecoin that has dropped over 90% from its peak, has Lindy effect properties, strong meme attributes, and sufficient volatility?

You can ask those shilling KOLs: would they buy HYPE at this price?

HYPE has already made many people rich. So the real question you should ask yourself is: who will become their exit liquidity?

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