UFO文件公开后，预测市场只给外星人存在概率定价20%？

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)

Last night, the U.S. Department of Defense officially launched a UFO archive website and released the first batch of government documents related to UAPs, unidentified flying objects, and suspected extraterrestrial life. According to public reports, this initial release includes over 160 documents, covering videos, photos, mission records, sighting reports, communication logs, and historical archives involving multiple U.S. federal agencies, including NASA, the FBI, and the Department of Defense.

These documents are not merely abstract government reports; they contain a wealth of specific visual evidence and historical records. For instance, the Apollo mission spacecraft captured three anomalous points of light hovering above the lunar surface. Communication logs from Apollo 17 also feature astronauts discussing mysterious objects approaching the spacecraft. Other materials show unexplained objects appearing over the UAE, Greece, Iraq, and other locations.

What has proven even more shareable are the unsolved cases with concrete visuals in the documents. A jellyfish-like object appeared over the UAE, some records captured what appeared to be glowing orbs and an eight-pointed star-shaped UFO, and the FBI also photographed anomalous targets near U.S. military aircraft. One image released by the DoD also shows an unidentified object that appeared over the western United States in September 2025.

An image released by the U.S. Department of Defense claims to show an unidentified object over the western United States in September 2025 (Source: U.S. Department of Defense)

Compared to simple text reports, these images and witness accounts are more likely to rapidly spread UFO discussions, making this disclosure seem like a concentrated showcase of "declassified files."

But the prediction market's response is far more measured than social media's. Following the release of the first batch of UFO documents, the probability on the prediction market predict.fun for the event "The U.S. will confirm the existence of aliens by December 31, 2026" did not spike dramatically due to this explosive news. The market did not interpret this disclosure as "the U.S. is about to confirm the existence of aliens," and the probability remains only at 20%.

Source: https://predict.fun/market/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027

So, why hasn't this UFO document release significantly changed the prediction market's assessment?

The Prediction Market Isn't Betting on Whether Aliens Exist, but on Whether the U.S. Government Will Admit It

Many people, seeing the 20% probability, might initially think the prediction market believes there's only a 20% chance that aliens exist. However, this misunderstands the market itself.

What markets like predict.fun truly trade on is not whether extraterrestrial life exists in the universe, but whether the U.S. government will clearly confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or alien technology before 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2026. According to the market's settlement rules, the market will only settle as Yes if the U.S. President, a U.S. Cabinet member, a Joint Chiefs of Staff member, or a U.S. federal agency explicitly makes such a statement. Otherwise, the market will settle as No. The primary sources for settlement are official U.S. government information, supplemented by consensus from credible media reports.

This rule is critical. It means that one UFO video isn't enough, a blurry photo isn't enough, an astronaut's communication log isn't enough, and the military admitting that some phenomena are temporarily unexplained isn't enough. What can truly trigger a Yes outcome is the U.S. government stating clearly and explicitly enough to confirm that extraterrestrial life or alien technology does indeed exist.

Releasing documents simply puts more material before the public; an official confirmation means the government is endorsing a conclusion. The former generates discussion, while the latter triggers settlement. There is a significant gap between the two.

Archive Disclosure is Not the Announcement of an Answer

This release of UFO files is indeed not an ordinary information update. The DoD is centrally releasing related materials through a dedicated website and has stated it will continue to release more documents in batches. For the public, this means that UFO and UAP data, once scattered across different agencies, eras, and filing systems, is being reorganized into a single official portal. This centralizes the discussion and makes it easier for outsiders to track what materials the U.S. government holds.

However, based on the current content, these files seem more like presenting historical sightings, anomalous images, mission records, and old archives to the public, rather than providing a unified explanation for these materials. The DoD hasn't told the public "what this is"; instead, it's releasing more unsolved cases, leaving the judgment to the public.

This places the release in a delicate position. It increases transparency without changing the nature of the events. The UFO discussion gains more material, but this material serves more to expand the scope of the question itself, rather than advancing unknown phenomena towards the confirmation of aliens.

For the prediction market, this document release feels more like a new starting point for observation than evidence sufficient to alter the odds. It brings the UFO topic back to center stage and gives subsequent document updates trading value. However, the first batch of materials still primarily consists of historical records, sighting reports, and unexplained images. The market is truly waiting for a higher-level, more undeniable, and more conclusive key signal closer to an official determination.

Is 20% an Underestimate or an Overestimate?

From an emotional perspective, 20% might be an underestimate. After all, the UFO document release has entered an official rhythm, and more materials will continue to be released. If clearer military videos, higher-level internal records, or a more direct assessment from a federal agency emerge in the future, the Yes price could still be rapidly revalued.

But from a market pricing perspective, 20% is not low. This is because the market is trading on a question with a specific deadline, not an open-ended one. The market must assess not only whether the U.S. will confirm the existence of alien life or technology but also whether this confirmation will occur before the end of 2026.

Time itself is a barrier. Even if more documents are released, and more unsolved cases enter the public eye, it doesn't mean the U.S. government will complete evidence review, internal coordination, and political assessment to reach a sufficiently clear conclusion within a few months. For an official system, continuing to disclose materials is one thing; reaching a definitive conclusion in a short time is another.

Therefore, the current 20% probability seems more like a tail-end pricing with a time discount. It doesn't deny that subsequent documents could continue to create volatility, but it also indicates that the market doesn't believe the initial release has changed the fundamental assessment of the event. For traders, the document release itself isn't the scarce factor; what's truly scarce is a key signal capable of pushing for official confirmation before the end of this year. Until such a signal appears, it will be difficult for the Yes price to be significantly driven higher by mere archive updates.

When UFOs Enter Prediction Markets, the Truth Gets a Price Tag

The most noteworthy aspect of this event is no longer just a specific photo, video, or jellyfish-like object. UFOs have long resided in the realm of emotions, beliefs, and conspiracy narratives. Believers see more clues in every document release, while skeptics continue to emphasize insufficient evidence, misidentification, and technical noise. These two sides have debated for years, struggling to truly convince each other, often because they are discussing different questions.

Prediction markets pull this question closer to reality. They don't attempt to answer whether other life exists in the universe. Instead, they narrow the question down to a much more specific level: will the U.S. government clearly acknowledge the existence of extraterrestrial life or alien technology before the end of this year? It turns a hard-to-ground imagination into an event that can be traded, settled, and continuously adjusted based on new information.

So, this roughly 20% probability is not a final judgment on the existence of alien life. It is the market's assessment of whether the U.S. government will change its official stance before the end of the year. What it truly reflects is the traders' comprehensive judgment on the chain of evidence, official statements, and the time window involved.

As humanity's oldest mystery enters prediction markets, the truth is no longer just being waited for and discussed; it is being priced. UFOs might still be suspended in the sky, but the question of when they will be officially confirmed, when they will transition from an unknown phenomenon to a confirmed reality, has landed squarely on the trading board.