美国加密政策下半场：CLARITY法案闯关60票，CFTC“一人委员会”成最大变数

Original Author: Cleve Mesidor (Executive Director, DC Blockchain Foundation)

Original Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

In this sports season filled with Cinderella stories, the crypto industry is also awaiting its own moment in the spotlight – the CLARITY Act, currently advancing in the US Senate, could be that key "comeback." However, with two quarters left until the final buzzer, securing 60 votes for passage means Republicans may need to reach a compromise with the White House on ethical issues while also attracting a few remaining Republican senators who are on the fence.

It's only halftime; there are still six months left in the year, and anything is possible. Legislative victories and on-field scores are essentially the same – requiring multiple factors to align perfectly. Sometimes, burning a little sage for good luck doesn't hurt either – just like the New York Knicks have shown this year.

The second half of the policy year will be a critical period for intensive bipartisan negotiations across both the Senate and the House. Zoomin out, market structure legislation is just one piece of a larger playbook aimed at building a comprehensive policy and regulatory framework for Web3 and DeFi.

The congressional calendar is already packed, with just over 40 legislative working days remaining – even counting the lame-duck session and midterm elections, the time for various parties to strategize and adjust the score is extremely tight.

A Crowded Policy Arena

Beyond the outlook for the CLARITY Act, can the multiple crypto tax proposals split from the new PARITY Act hitch a ride on broader legislative "vehicles" and become law this year?

Can the core language of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act execute a "Hail Mary" pass, enshrining developer protections into law?

Additionally, a full-court press continues around the GENIUS rulemaking process, with key provisions still awaiting finalization.

For crypto enthusiasts, this feels like following a sports team all season: a rich playbook, constant suspense, and a mix of excitement and anxiety.

CFTC Missing From the Starting Lineup

The absence of four commissioners at a financial regulatory agency is deeply concerning for the industry. For the crypto sector, this directly impacts expectations for action in Washington – uncertainty remains over whether new commissioners can be nominated and confirmed this year.

More thorny is the question: who will win the jurisdictional battle over prediction markets? Will it be the states, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)? Or will the Supreme Court ultimately decide?

Of course, this is not a suggestion for you to place a bet.

Crypto Champions Set to Retire

Regardless of the final policy outcomes, the rest of the year will likely be bittersweet. Two heavyweight "crypto champions" are about to hang up their federal government jerseys, and their departures will have significant short-term and long-term impacts: SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce and US Senator Cynthia Lummis.

Peirce, a two-term commissioner leading the SEC's Crypto Task Force, has been a central architect of cross-regulatory coordination efforts. Lummis, who chairs the Senate Banking Committee's Subcommittee on Digital Assets, is a key negotiator for bipartisan compromise and a staunch advocate for the BRCA.

Outlook for the Second Half: What Industry Leaders Think

I interviewed several seasoned industry leaders to gauge their assessment of current crypto policy deliberations. Here are their perspectives on CLARITY, taxes, and prediction markets:

Sara K. Weed (Partner, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP):

"There's no denying we are making steady progress in the right direction. However, constrained by the shortage of legislative working days and election pressures, the likelihood of CLARITY passing in this Congress is not high. Therefore, agencies like the SEC and CFTC will be forced to play a more active role in providing much-needed certainty to the industry. The question, of course, is how far they can go within their existing authorities."

Sulolit "Raj" Mukherjee (CEO, Bodin Advisory):

"If history is any guide, meaningful crypto tax legislation is most likely not to pass as a standalone bill, but rather to be embedded within broader tax, budget, or year-end omnibus legislation. Current proposals are relatively focused and have bipartisan consensus, aimed at solving specific issues like de minimis exemptions, staking tax treatment, wash sale rules, and information reporting requirements. These provisions become easier to advance when attached to 'must-pass' large bills. Whether they ultimately get enacted depends on Congressional bandwidth, scoring, and whether lawmakers view crypto tax rules as technical fixes to improve compliance, separate from the broader digital asset policy debate. The chance of at least one or two measures becoming law this year is real, but it will likely happen through a 'hitching a ride' method, not via standalone crypto tax bills."

Rashan Colbert (US Policy Director, Crypto Council for Innovation):

"I won't predict how the courts will resolve jurisdictional disputes, but the overall direction is clear: as the prediction market category matures, the CFTC is working towards building a more lasting regulatory framework for it. The recent NPRM is another step towards providing more transparency and legal certainty for market participants – a sector where both user numbers and trading volume are growing rapidly.

The core question is: should prediction markets be viewed primarily as financial market infrastructure, or broadly classified as gambling? I believe these markets have the potential to be sophisticated tools for expressing opinions, hedging risk, and simplifying access to derivatives exposures on various events and assets. Adopting an overly broad gambling framework could stifle this potential before the market has a chance to develop into a positive-sum financial infrastructure."

The second half of crypto policy has begun. The time window is tight, but the window of opportunity remains open. The industry needs sustained bipartisan communication and pragmatic efforts to achieve substantial results by 2026.