比特币「反弹结束」，正式进入熊市后期？

Original Author: Glassnode

Original Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Bitcoin fell 13% this week, with profitability collapsing sharply, realized losses surging, and spot sellers regaining control. US spot ETF investors, having encountered resistance near their cost basis, have slipped back into unrealized losses, while the options market continues to price in high risk.

Summary

• Bitcoin fell 13% over the past 7 days, with the price settling in the middle of the range between the Realized Price and the True Market Mean. The short-term holder cost basis has broken below the True Market Mean for the first time since January 2022, confirming late-stage bear market characteristics.
• The 7-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio plummeted from a local high of 3.16 to 0.29, nearly identical to the February panic wave. Meanwhile, the 90-day moving average has never breached the threshold of 2, confirming that the rebound to $82k was merely a bear market rally, not a structural turning point.
• Daily total realized losses surged to $1.35 billion, including $770 million from long-term holders selling at cycle top levels, indicating an accelerated but incomplete supply redistribution process.
• Bitcoin was rejected almost precisely near the aggregate cost basis of US spot ETFs at around $83,000, pushing the average ETF investor back into unrealized losses and strengthening this level as a key overhead resistance.
• Spot market selling pressure intensified, with the 7-day spot volume delta turning significantly negative, reaching its weakest level since February. This suggests sellers continue to dominate the order book despite the pullback.
• Implied volatility continues to compress, while the volatility risk premium expands, indicating the options market prices in higher future volatility than recent actual market performance.
• The skew remains in put premium territory, but the recent sell-off has not triggered a notable increase in demand for downside hedging.
• Market maker positioning concentrates around the current spot price, with Bitcoin in the area of maximum negative gamma, and capital flows persistently favoring protective demand.

Macro Overview

US job openings rose to 7.62 million in April, the highest in nearly two years and 750,000 above market expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield rebounded above 4.45%, with the market pricing in over a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end, eliminating expectations for any rate cuts this year. The US dollar index held above 99. Financial conditions are tightening marginally, not easing.

Bitcoin has absorbed this shift more intensely than any other risk asset, dropping 13% over the past week to the $67,000 range. US spot ETFs have seen outflows of $4.21 billion over three consecutive weeks, the largest institutional redemption wave in 2026. Institutions are de-risking ahead of price declines, not reacting afterward. Friday's non-farm payroll data is a key observation point. Strong data will sustain the current distribution pressure; weak data may provide the first conditions for a reset.

On-Chain Insights

Back in Bear Market Territory

The aforementioned macro headwinds have directly translated into on-chain structural deterioration. The 13% decline over the past week pulled the price back from the True Market Mean of $77.8k, which tracks the cost basis of active trading supply and historically serves as the dividing line between bull and bear markets. Currently at $67k, the price sits in the middle of this range, failing to hold above the True Market Mean, once again confirming that the bear market continuation remains the dominant pattern.

Notably, the short-term holder cost basis has now dropped to $76.4k and fallen below the True Market Mean, a structural configuration last seen in January 2022. This setup indicates that new buyers are accumulating below the market's key mean valuation, a classic late-stage bear market characteristic where the duration of the correction begins to pressure investor conviction. Historically, such phases are more prone to structural failures or large-scale capitulation.

Profitability Collapses on the Decline

On top of the structural deterioration, the short-term capital flow environment has shifted sharply due to the recent price decline. The 7-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio has contracted to 0.29, indicating that loss realization is overwhelmingly dominating on-chain spending behavior. This is nearly identical to the panic wave in early February. On May 7, this 7-day average spiked to 3.16 as investors realized profits during the $82k rally, but the 90-day moving average never broke above the threshold of 2, which typically corresponds to genuine bull market capital flows. This divergence between short-term and medium/long-term readings is a clear sign of a rally lacking structural conviction, consistent with local top formations in a bear market rather than a credible structural shift. The subsequent retreat to 0.29 further confirms this assessment.

New Buyers Under Pressure

Resistance at the bear market top range has directly exposed recently accumulated supply to unrealized losses. The short-term holder cost basis distribution heatmap visualizes the supply density of recent buyers at different price levels, revealing areas of concentrated short-term holder cost bases, which are also the zones where behavioral pressure is most likely to emerge.

As the price retreats toward $67k, it is approaching the lower boundary of the supply cluster accumulated since February. In this zone, a large number of short-term holders see their unrealized gains compressed to break-even or even turn into losses. Those who accumulated near the local top of $78k-$82k face the most immediate pressure. Their decision to hold or capitulate will determine whether the current price level can absorb selling pressure or yield to a deeper decline.

Accelerated Loss Realization Across Cohorts

As recent buyers are pushed back to the lower boundary of the three-month range, the pressure of loss realization has expanded from the newest accumulated supply to a broader scope. The current pullback to $67k has pushed daily total realized losses to $1.35 billion, a significant acceleration from the baseline levels seen during the prior consolidation period.

Of this, $770 million daily was realized by long-term holders who bought before January 2026, reflecting the ongoing capitulation of cycle-top buyers as the bear market extends. The remainder comes from recent buyers who accumulated within the $67k-$82k range during 2026 and are now being forced to exit at a loss as the price breaks below their cost basis.

As the bear market matures, this pattern of long-term holders capitulating and passing supply to new buyers at lower prices is a recurring and necessary feature of the cycle bottoming process. However, the current pace of loss realization suggests this process is not yet complete.

Off-Chain Insights

Breaking Below ETF Cost Basis

The latest Bitcoin rally stalled almost precisely at the aggregate cost basis of US spot ETFs around $83k, transforming this level, which previously acted as support, into clear resistance. This suggests that a significant number of ETF investors who were previously at an unrealized loss used the rally to reduce positions or exit at break-even.

This rejection is particularly noteworthy because ETF flows have been one of the dominant sources of demand this cycle. When the price struggles to retake the average holder's cost basis, it often implies that supply from trapped investors is exceeding new demand, creating overhead resistance.

Looking ahead, the aggregate ETF cost basis remains a key level to watch. A decisive retake would bring the average ETF investor back into profitability and could improve sentiment within this cohort. Until then, the failure to hold above this level suggests ETF holdings remain a headwind, with investors using strength to de-risk rather than accumulate.

Spot Buying Disappears

Spot market capital flows have deteriorated sharply over the past two weeks, with the 7-day spot volume delta turning negative and reaching its weakest level since the February sell-off. This indicates that aggressive sellers are once again dominating the spot order book, further reinforcing the weakness in recent price action.

What makes the current move peculiar is that it follows a period of sustained spot-led accumulation during April and early May. During that rally, buyers continuously lifted the offer, pushing the spot volume delta into positive territory and helping Bitcoin recover from the mid-$60k range to $80k. That demand impulse has now faded, and as the price failed to break higher, sellers have regained control.

A persistently negative spot volume delta typically accompanies either a capitulation event or the early stages of a broader trend reversal. For now, it indicates that the market remains in a distribution phase, with spot participants using rallies to sell rather than accumulate. A significant improvement in spot demand remains one of the key signals for a sustainable recovery.

Futures Liquidations

The latest market correction triggered one of the largest liquidation events of this cycle, with over $400 million in leveraged long positions forcibly closed as Bitcoin fell below $70k. While painful for late entrants, such events often help clear excess leverage from the system and reset market positioning.

Notably, the scale of this liquidation is still smaller than those seen during the corrections in October 2025 and February 2026, suggesting leverage was not excessively stretched entering this decline. Historically, large-scale long liquidations often coincide with local exhaustion points, as forced selling cascades through the derivatives market and clears out weak hands.

The key question moving forward is whether spot demand can step in to absorb the supply. If liquidation-driven selling pressure begins to wane while spot buyers return, the market could emerge with a cleaner positioning backdrop and lower leverage overhang, creating conditions for a more sustainable recovery.

Implied Volatility Continues to Decline

From an implied volatility perspective, despite the spot price breakdown, the dominant trend remains compression across the entire term curve. The 1-month tenor has fallen from approximately 38% to 34%, while the 3-month and 6-month tenors have also compressed by about 3 volatility points over the past two weeks.

This movement reflects the market's continued reluctance to pay premiums for options even after Bitcoin broke below its recent range. Although front-end volatility showed a brief reaction during the sharp spot price movement, these spikes were quickly sold into, maintaining the broader downward trend.

The term structure remains in contango, with far-dated volatility still trading at a premium over the front end. This indicates that traders continue to view the recent price weakness as a local event rather than a catalyst for a broader volatility repricing.

Volatility sellers remain dominant, and despite the price weakening, demand for protection has not accelerated.

Volatility Risk Premium Near Three-Month High

As implied volatility declines, the relationship between implied and realized volatility tells a different story. Despite Bitcoin experiencing a period of volatility, the options market continues to price in significantly higher future volatility than what recent spot activity has actually delivered.

1-month implied volatility has rebounded to around 42%, while realized volatility remains near 32%. As a result, the volatility risk premium has expanded to levels close to the highest seen in the past three months.

This shift is particularly evident during the recent sell-off. While realized volatility picked up as spot prices broke through key support, implied volatility rose even faster, reflecting new demand for options and protection.

The options market continues to assign a higher probability to future volatility than the recent price action alone would suggest, keeping the volatility premium at a significant elevated level.

Put Premium Remains Elevated

As the volatility risk premium expands, the skew shows where traders continue to concentrate their options demand. Despite the spot breakdown, puts persistently remain more expensive than calls across the entire term curve.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's latest decline further confirms the view that the market remains fragile, with weakness evident across profitability, investor behavior, ETF holdings, and spot market demand. The rejection at the aggregate ETF cost base around $83,000 indicates that many investors remain trapped above the current price, creating overhead selling pressure that continues to suppress Bitcoin's rallies.

At the same time, realized losses are accelerating, long-term holders have begun selling en masse, and spot order flow has decisively shifted in favor of sellers. While recent liquidation events help clear leverage from the system, there is currently little evidence of a durable demand response capable of absorbing the resulting supply.

The options market paints a similar picture. Traders continue to pay for downside protection and future volatility, but the panic often accompanying sharp declines is absent. Until spot demand strengthens, ETF investors return to profitability, and selling pressure begins to ease, the market is likely to remain at risk of further declines and continue consolidating within the broader bear market structure.